Liam Karr
@liam_karr
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Africa Team Lead for @criticalthreats. Focus on political and security dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa. Opinions are my own. RTs, follows, likes ≠ endorsements.
Washington, D.C.
Joined January 2022
Tuareg rebels ambushed a Russian convoy in Mali this morning. Videos show several Russian casualties. Such attacks damage Russian prestige and could cause domestic blowback now that the Kremlin is more overtly involved after swapping Wagner for the MOD-backed Africa Corps. 🧵
NEW | The Wagner Group withdrew from Mali as the Kremlin transitions control of military operations in Africa to the Ministry of Defense–backed Africa Corps. The shift to more overt state involvement creates risks for the Kremlin, which may lead Russia to adapt its engagement.🧵
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RT @criticalthreats: NEW | The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have continued to escalate their assault on el Fasher, advancing into Abu Shouk r….
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RT @GUDiplomacy: 🎧‼️ This week, @Liam_Karr of @CriticalThreats joins @McFarlandKellyM to discuss the DRC-Rwanda peace process. https://t.c….
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RT @criticalthreats: NEW | Russia's influence and military positions in the Sahel give it opportunities to threaten Europe. ⬇️More from CTP….
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RT @criticalthreats: NEW | US-supported Somali forces are encountering strong resistance as they try to clear IS Somalia Province’s (ISS) c….
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This US-Puntland op has involved very intense and deadly fighting. Shades of IS final stands in places like Mosul, Raqqa, and Sirte. Also some of the same operational challenges CT forces have faced in other mountainous terrain, such as Tora Bora.
U.S. Africa Command, in coordination with the Federal Government of Somalia, concluded a two-week operation targeting ISIS-Somalia in the Puntland region. Strikes focused on leadership safe havens in the Golis Mountains.
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More RSF atrocities in Sudan, including civilian executions and ethnic targeting, as it intensifies pressure on el Fasher and surrounding refugee camps. The situation could worsen rapidly without greater pressure on the RSF & UAE:
realclearworld.com
A genocide may be about to quietly unfold in Sudan. But it’s not too late to stop it. President Trump and U.S. officials must increase pressure on the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the United A
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are worsening the humanitarian disaster in western Sudan and are poised to commit genocide. However, President Trump can help alleviate the suffering and ensure no such event occurs. Trump and U.S. officials must increase pressure on the RSF and
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RT @_hudsonc: Trump Can Prevent a Genocide in Sudan. There's a growing consensus in Washington that the US has an important role to play i….
realclearworld.com
A genocide may be about to quietly unfold in Sudan. But it’s not too late to stop it. President Trump and U.S. officials must increase pressure on the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the United A
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RT @criticalthreats: The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are worsening the humanitarian disaster in western Sudan and are poised to commit genoc….
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RT @criticalthreats: NEW | The Kremlin is escalating its information efforts across Africa, amplifying pro-Russia and anti-West, anti-Ukrai….
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RT @criticalthreats: NEW | M23 has increased the tempo and scale of an indiscriminate counterinsurgency campaign against anti-M23 militia g….
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RT @criticalthreats: Following a new M23 offensive, keeping the US- and Qatari-backed peace process on track will require greater US and in….
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RT @criticalthreats: NEW | The Kremlin is pushing into Africa with its MOD-backed Africa Corps. This move away from Wagner Corps raises the….
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RT @criticalthreats: "Analysis by the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) outlined how Russia is filling a….
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RT @criticalthreats: The Kremlin is rebranding Russia's military presence across Africa. Learn more from CTP's @liam_karr ⬇️ & stay tuned f….
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RT @_hudsonc: New estimates that at least 1500 civilians were killed in the RSF’s initial assault on ZamZam camp in April with the investig….
theguardian.com
Guardian investigation finds number killed in April attack by Rapid Support Forces far greater than current estimates
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We'll try to get out some additional threads explaining why these incentives aren't alone enough for a lasting and sustainable agreement, the risk for military escalation, and other spoilers that could derail the peace process.
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M23 Incentives:. - Remaining in negotiations gives M23 and Rwanda time to gain even greater leverage by consolidating stronger de facto control over occupied areas. - Staying in the talks gives M23 time to prepare and plan for a new offensive.
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Rwandan Incentives🇷🇼:.- Rwanda seeks to legitimize its involvement in the eastern DRC's mining sector. - Involvement in peace talks avoids international pressure or sanctions.
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DRC President Félix Tshisekedi likely aims to use US backing to ensure his regime’s survival and isolate his political enemies as part of a “minerals-for-security” deal.
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The DRC government stands to benefit from increased defense cooperation with the United States that could help address the structural weakness of the Congolese army.
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