Liam Karr
@liam_karr
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Africa Team Lead for @criticalthreats. Focus on political and security dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa. Opinions are my own. RTs, follows, likes ≠ endorsements.
Washington, D.C.
Joined January 2022
Tuareg rebels ambushed a Russian convoy in Mali this morning. Videos show several Russian casualties. Such attacks damage Russian prestige and could cause domestic blowback now that the Kremlin is more overtly involved after swapping Wagner for the MOD-backed Africa Corps. 🧵
NEW | The Wagner Group withdrew from Mali as the Kremlin transitions control of military operations in Africa to the Ministry of Defense–backed Africa Corps. The shift to more overt state involvement creates risks for the Kremlin, which may lead Russia to adapt its engagement.🧵
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RT @criticalthreats: NEW | Al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate JNIM launched a series of simultaneous attacks across Mali on July 1. The operati….
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JNIM's attacks in Mali yday are a bit Tet Offensive-esque. Seemingly a tactical defeat, but could generate strategic benefits by undermining the junta's narrative that security is improving. Hard to say w/ the Malian information space & junta's popular support in southern Mali.
Mali: précisions et interrogations sur les sept attaques menées par le Jnim de Kayes à Niono
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RT @criticalthreats: The US-mediated peace deal between the DRC & Rwanda will likely limit the scale of violence in the eastern DRC in the….
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RT @criticalthreats: The United States brokered a major peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda. The deal is a strong first step to pe….
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Read the investigation here. Faces are blurred, images and descriptions are not fully censored. Not for the faint of heart.
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Mali's Russian allies are both ineffective AND obscenely racist. @jeune_afrique found Russian soldiers calling their Malian partners "coal" or the n-word and bragging about beheading & torturing Africans⬇️. Don't think this fits Africa's desire for mutually respectful partners.
NEW | Malian junta leader Assimi Goïta met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on June 23. The visit comes amid a spiraling security situation in Mali and across the Sahel that undermines Russia's credibility as an effective partner.🧵
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RT @SaladinAlDronni: "White Uncles in Africa 18+", a Russian Wagner turned Africa Corps Telegram channel. French journalists successfully i….
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RT @criticalthreats: NEW | Al Qaeda's Sahelian affiliate—JNIM—has likely operationalized rear support zones in northwestern Nigeria. It h….
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RT @criticalthreats: NEW | The Sudanese Armed Forces accused the Libyan National Army (LNA) of supporting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) ne….
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RT @criticalthreats: NEW | The United States is supporting security forces in northern Somalia as they attempt to clear the Islamic State S….
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One week into Africa Corps in Mali and they’ve already suffered two of the biggest setbacks Russian forces have faced in 2025. And now there’s no more glossing over it or scapegoating Wagner. This is what the Russian state offers as a partner. Embarrassing for the Kremlin.
#Mali image du moment de la chute de l’avion à Gao. Si effectivement il s’agit du Su24, il est le seul avion de ce type en dotation de l’AfricaCorps
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You can read my full assessment on the implications of the shift from Wagner to the Africa Corps, and how that might change Russia's behavior and its partnerships in Africa in yesterday's Africa File:
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More overt Kremlin involvement in Africa military operations opens it up to myriad risks. Such risks include the prestige damage and potential domestic blowback from videos of dead Russian soldiers and potential POWs. *content warning*
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Casualty reports range from three to 10 Russians dead. A key difference is that AC had drone support this time.
Le nom de l’officier commandant du groupe menant l’embuscade (en photo) est Issouf Bougara. Les véhicules de la colonne FAMa/AfricaCorps bénéficient d’une surveillance de drone mais pas d’un appui feu drone. La frappe a été mené par un avion, la colonne n’a pas atteint Aguelhok.
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These tactics are reminiscent of the Tuareg/JNIM ambush near Tinzaouten in July 2024 that killed more than 80 Wagner fighters. Some Russian Telegram channels have directly compared the attack to Tinzaouten.
🇲🇱|#Mali: A Russian Telegram channel, which reports heavily on military activity in Africa, has shared a video of dead Africa Corps personnel and commented “Well, it looks like the first Tinzaouaten for AK has happened.”.
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Tuareg FLA fighters ambushed an Africa Corps convoy between Anfeis and Aguelhok, Kidal region. The fighters detonated IEDs that disabled vehicles and halted the column before attacking the convoy directly.
#Mali images aujourd’hui vers 9h du matin. Le convoi FAMa/AfricaCorps de +30 véhicules semble immobilisé dans son évolution vers Aguelhok
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RT @KatStepanenko: The Kremlin is contradicting its ongoing centralization effort by reportedly delegating command of Africa Corps (which a….
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RT @criticalthreats: NEW | The Wagner Group withdrew from Mali as the Kremlin transitions control of military operations in Africa to the M….
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You can also read more in our latest Africa File, which breaks down the JNIM campaign and explains the shorter-term implications (more local agreements with JNIM, state violence against civilians, and heightened coup risk) of the offensive.
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