Kingdom Capital
@kingdomcapadv
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Opinions on stocks, which are not investment advice.
Fairfax, VA
Joined April 2021
Given a lot of these were up 100-500% from mid September to mid October for no reason. It should be shocking to no one that they could go down 50% from mid October to mid November also for no reason. *the reason was probably leverage.
I’m just saying… there’s like 50 charts of profitless nonsense and they all look like this. Just saying.
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*stock drops 9% on...nothing? general macro fears that should benefit business?* 7am the next morning: 8-K alert Oh no "2025 Sustainability Report Released"
At $35, $UNFI is a $2.1B market cap, $1.8B net debt. FY26 guide takes that to $1.5B, likely $1.4B after insurance & asset sales not in guide. Expect EBITDA to come in at $700m vs "high confidence $665m" midpoint. I still think you're paying 5x here.
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Thank you @SenFinance Chair @MikeCrapo for holding a Committee Hearing focused on finding ways to lower the costs of Health Care. Here's an idea: Ban Pharma Advertising! > FACT: Big Pharma spends $10 billion a year on predatory ads targeting vulnerable Americans. Only 2
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Don't own $TSSI anymore but I'm interested after this drawdown given that it seems like Q3 arguably had a lot of one time factors at play (power issues, ERP issues, new team, etc) and they're signaling Q4 will set records on racks / integrations.
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At $35, $UNFI is a $2.1B market cap, $1.8B net debt. FY26 guide takes that to $1.5B, likely $1.4B after insurance & asset sales not in guide. Expect EBITDA to come in at $700m vs "high confidence $665m" midpoint. I still think you're paying 5x here.
At $40, $UNFI is a $2.4B market cap, $1.8B net debt. FY26 guide takes that to $1.5B, likely $1.4B after insurance & asset sales not in guide. Expect EBITDA to come in at $700m vs "high confidence $665m midpoint. I still think you're paying under 5.5x here.
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We get FY25 final from $MAGN this week, street bogey for FY26 is $370m (~flat) and I think they can beat that given the synergies & CORE contributions they have announced...
If you want to walk from FY25 EBITDA guide ($370m mid) to FY26, here's where I am landing: +$20m CORE +$20-30m lapping synergies -$10-20m South America pressures in 1H Then becomes a question of demand recovery/capacity utilization. Should be able to hit $400m without much help
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$SOC I don't know how you can read that 10-Q and decide that this thing is still worth owning
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Reading stuff like this is helping me understand why even if AI "isn't profitable" or "needs to be depreciated faster" the investing in this space isn't about to slow down. If your business is exposed to this stuff you have spend on AI
We believe this is the first documented case of a large-scale AI cyberattack executed without substantial human intervention. It has significant implications for cybersecurity in the age of AI agents. Read more:
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On the call, $MLCI confirms tender coming shortly around $9.40/share, and Management/Board won't participate
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Just guided to full new facility impact one quarter delayed, good for -40%
What do we think the bogey is for $TSSI this quarter, absent actual sell-side coverage? Revenues a huge moving target with procurement, think market wants to see >$12m integration, >$5m EBITDA, and >= $0.20 EPS. But, bar likely lower than last print w/ stock down from $30 to $16
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Refining $AIV for those that care: $2 a share coming from Brickell, path to close now laid out. So low end of range is $3.75*150 = $562m value Let’s say $90m NOI ($788m debt) plus 34th, which we mark at $30m ($18m expected NOI, ~$150 remining debt/development costs, so ~10%
Taking a look at the low end of the $AIV liquidation range, for those following
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Some of the most painful public mistakes I’ve made have been chasing these exact types of bad businesses with a “this time is different” thesis
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One of the tailwinds for Clinical in 2026 at $WW
$NVO and $WW WeightWatchers in a partnership to sell oral Wegovy if/when its approved and ready for sale This is the first partner announcement for oral Wegovy The cash price will start at $149. We don’t yet know prices for larger doses. My guess is $399 for top dose. But might
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One of the things that opened my eyes to this was watching the ongoing fixation on $KSS over $DDS in the past decade. It’s hard to grasp starting out that the lowest multiple companies almost always deserve it.
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Taking a look at the low end of the $AIV liquidation range, for those following
@turtlebay_io @stoked_on_waves $2 a share coming from Brickell. So low end of range is $3.75*150 = $562m value Let’s say $90m NOI ($675m debt) plus 34th, which we mark at $30m after $165m debt. Preferred and development pipeline cancel each other out (150m each) Remaining cash/notes/investments cancelled
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Especially with the recent recovery, appears $UNFI is trading with a basket of SNAP-impacted securities, despite very little actual exposure to the program
@chipflare @leevalueroach If you look from mid October to now it's literally just trading with the sector absent stocks with news. SFM is blowing up (in part) because WF is stealing their market share
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What do we think the bogey is for $TSSI this quarter, absent actual sell-side coverage? Revenues a huge moving target with procurement, think market wants to see >$12m integration, >$5m EBITDA, and >= $0.20 EPS. But, bar likely lower than last print w/ stock down from $30 to $16
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Looks like $NLOP wasted no time getting this one on the market after inking the lease extension: https://t.co/diPnNyysWq
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