This past year, I had the chance to help teach two regionally-focused polisci courses, Southeast Asian Politics and Chinese Politics, at Michigan. I wrote about some of the things I learned about approaching discussion sections in area studies here:
This poem is from Nirat Pukhao Thong, where Sunthorn Phu bemoans the various maladies of life as he travels by boat. Passing by a tavern, he laments the temporary nature of drunkenness that arises from alcohol, compared against the unceasing intoxication that is caused by love.
Since 2001, Pheu Thai has won the largest number of seats at every election comfortably.
After two decades, this certainty of Thai politics has been overturned. The era of Pheu Thai dominance of electoral politics is over.
#เลือกตั้ง66
3) Does Pheu Thai's landslide materialize?
Pheu Thai will almost certainly win the largest number of seats and votes, but its margin of victory will matter for whether the opposition can nullify the Senate or if it will need to join with interesting partners.
Another selection from Phra Aphai Manee is one of the most famous romantic poems in Thailand. Phra Aphai Mani speaks of his love from Nang Laweng, the daughter of the Lord of Longa — even after being reborn.
This poem is from Nirat Pukhao Thong, where Sunthorn Phu bemoans the various maladies of life as he travels by boat. Passing by a tavern, he laments the temporary nature of drunkenness that arises from alcohol, compared against the unceasing intoxication that is caused by love.
While I think it's perfectly fine for PM to not speak English well, butchering the names of the vaccines indicates he's unfamiliar with them and not on top of his brief. Which begs the question: if he's not focused on the vaccines, then what is he doing?
After arguing that Pad Kaprao > Pad Thai in a previous tweet, I realized that my American friends may have no idea what I'm talking about. And since I'm passionate about this cause...
Why Pad Kaprao is Thailand's Real National Dish
Another selection from Phra Aphai Manee is one of the most famous romantic poems in Thailand. Phra Aphai Mani speaks of his love from Nang Laweng, the daughter of the Lord of Longa — even after being reborn.
Can Pita Limjaroenrat become PM? I explore three scenarios:
1. MFP-led coalition (still faces challenges)
2. Pheu Thai-led coalition (mathematically easiest, but unpopular)
3. Conservative minority government (virtually impossible)
@ThaiEnquirer
ทางสำนักข่าว
@ThaiEnquirer
ทำกราฟิคที่มีทั้งกลอนต้นฉบับและคำแปลภาษาอังกฤษออกมาด้วยนะครับ
The Thai Enquirer team made some really neat graphics with the poetry translations. Check them out!
Today is the anniversary of Sunthorn Phu's birthday, one of Thailand's greatest poets. I adapted some of his most well-known poems into English while retaining the distinctive rhyming structure of Thai poetry.
@ThaiEnquirer
Why is Thai politics like a plate with multiple fried eggs on it?
In a new article,
@a2hicken
,
@naponjatu
and I examine urban-rural dynamics at the 2023 general election in Thailand.
Here's a thread on our findings 🧵
Promoting policies that will enhance
#Thailand
's long-term competitiveness earns few votes.
But pressing our parties to come up with a credible program of economic restructuring is critical for the country's future.
Link -
#เลือกตั้ง2566 #เลือกตั้ง66
Three takeaways from Thailand's election night:
1. Move Forward wins big
2. It's over for Prayut
3. Murky road of coalition formation ahead
Read the piece at
@ThaiEnquirer
:
#เลือกตั้ง2566
The popular channel Farose asked the leaders of four parties to place themselves on a political compass. Anutin placed Bhumjaithai smack in the center. #พรรคนี้เป็นไงบ้าง
The polls have closed for
#ThaiElection2023
.
A wide range of outcomes are possible — from a strong opposition performance that virtually guarantees a change in prime minister, to a more ambiguous result that will lead to weeks of backroom dealing.
Some things to watch: 🧵
Poor air quality. A mishandled health crisis. A looming budget battle. An upcoming censure debate. An underperforming economy. A slide down the corruption rankings. This is a government that has lost its way:
It isn't just that Pita failed to win the premiership today, but the manner in which he failed to win: with so few Senate votes, the distance may very well be unbridgeable.
ขอขอบคุณทุกคนที่มาอ่านนะครับ 🙏 ดีใจที่มีคนสนใจเรื่องการเผยแพร่งานประพันธ์ของไทยให้ไปสู่สากลครับ
Deeply grateful for the positive feedback this piece has elicited, and I'm glad that people are interested in this effort to bring more Thai literature to an international audience!
Thailand is still stuck where Taiwan was in the mid-20th century: seen by elites as unready for democracy, needing the “tutelage” of supposedly benevolent military dictatorship. My piece for
@ThaiEnquirer
:
Parit Wacharasindhu points out in an open letter that 64 senators voted to remove the power of the Senate to select the PM. The MFP coalition currently has 310 votes in parliament. If all of those Senators voted for Pita, it would put MFP tantalizingly close to the finish line.
A dispiriting read from Bloomberg on the Asian tiger that never roared: "Thailand seems incapable of breaking out of its status as a middle-income country. Once way ahead of China in per-capita wealth, today it’s notably behind."
Since 2001, Pheu Thai has won the largest number of seats at every election comfortably.
After two decades, this certainty of Thai politics has been overturned. The era of Pheu Thai dominance of electoral politics is over.
#เลือกตั้ง66
It's now been three weeks since Thailand's general election concluded, and here's where things stand. 🧵
1. The biggest question mark over Thai politics now is whether Pita can become prime minister, and his legal cases may prove to be his biggest obstacle.
What's next in Thailand's PM selection process? 🧵
After yesterday's vote, it's become almost certain that Pita will not become Thailand's next prime minister. The Senate has become an insurmountable challenge for him.
Regardless of your thoughts on either #วิ่งไล่ลุง or #เดินเชียร์ลุง, we should all be able to agree that, even in limited bounds, public engagement and political expression is back in Thailand. The juxtaposing of opposing political opinions is what democracy is about.
Always interesting to see the annual taxpayer donations to political parties. All Thai taxpayers can choose to direct 500 baht of their income tax to any political party of their choice.
Somehow, Srettha Thavisin's election as prime minister didn't even feel like the biggest piece of news yesterday. Takeaways from a dramatic day in Thai politics, where the return of a former PM overshadowed the election of a new PM:
@ThaiEnquirer
House speaker Chuan Leekpai: "Everyone has different needs. We don't have to be as strict on the dress code to everyone. Let us end the issue of dress codes here, or the public will think we have nothing to discuss."
Chuan is right - time to move on.
#ประชุมสภา
The biggest question on the TE livestream today was: can Pheu Thai and Move Forward establish a coalition?
It's a complicated question. The two parties will begin discussing a coalition tonight, but many roadblocks remain.
🧵
#เลือกตั้ง2566
Srettha recently made two major announcements: 1) an invitation for Putin to visit Phuket and 2) courting major Chinese investment for a land bridge. Given that these are the opening salvos of his nascent foreign policy, they send a major message on how he wants to align Thailand
Saw a Facebook post by Prayut where he discusses an article in the Financial Times praising Thailand's economic management. This got me curious, and so I dug up the original piece that I believe Prayut is referring to by Ruchir Sharma. (thread)
Sinovac may not be the best vaccine out there, but it will still save lives and reduce the burden on our public health system. My piece in
@ThaiEnquirer
:
Hope may be unquantifiable, but anyone in Thailand right now can sense that it's at a low point. Can we make Thailand dream again? My piece for
@ThaiEnquirer
:
Thailand is currently an interesting case where there's no agreement on whether or not the economy is in crisis, and for once it's the government that keeps insisting theres a crisis.
Out of curiosity, I found Thai PMs' education since Anand:
Cambridge
Thammasat
Ramkhamhaeng
Chulachomklao Military Academy
Thammasat
Royal Police Cadet Academy
Chulachomklao Military Academy
Thammasat
Thammasat
Oxford
Chiang Mai University
Chulachomklao Military Academy
University Education of UK PMs since the war.
Oxford
None
Oxford
Oxford
Oxford
Oxford
Oxford
None
Oxford
None
Oxford
Edinburgh
Oxford
Oxford
Oxford
Oxford
Oxford
Srettha said that he discussed collaboration in developing "soft power" products with France's Macron.
This once again shows the conceptual confusion over "soft power" in official circles. I've never heard of a country asking another country to help increase its soft power!
The following stanza, taken from Sunthorn Phu's epic Phra Aphai Manee, is possibly the single most famous piece of poetry in Thailand. It is held as an excellent summary of the untrustworthiness of the human mind: twisted as it is, beyond even entangled vines.
A super-charged, online war between Chinese and Thai netizens about the issue of Taiwanese independence is surely one of the stranger things to happen this year...
My piece for
@ThaiEnquirer
on the
#nnevvy
Twitter war between Chinese and Thai netizens. Just as the Thai government has moved closer into the Chinese orbit over recent years, the digital flareup reveals sentiment on the ground:
Where things stand today: coalition has 313 MPs and 15 senators have said they will support Pita as prime minister. He needs 48 more votes to reach 376.
#จัดตั้งรัฐบาล #เลือกตั้ง66
Thailand's poverty level had risen twice under Prayut, even before the pandemic. My piece for
@ThaiEnquirer
on how this issue remains the government's greatest weakness:
.
@FreeYOUTHth
is starting up their own protest campaign to “Restart Thailand” with no leaders, no guards no stages, no negotiation and only one demand. No idea what that demand is yet. #ม็อบ7ธันวา
On May 31st,
@a2hicken
and I will be discussing the Thai election results in this webinar hosted by
@StanfordSAPARC
. Please join us if you're interested! Register here:
"It is in the best interests of the country for a new prime minister to lead"
UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces she will resign on Friday 7 June
Live updates:
We now know that herd immunity is probably an elusive goal. But is Thailand truly ready to "live with COVID-19"? My piece in
@ThaiEnquirer
on how the Prayut government must be upfront about what this strategy entails:
The Thaiger used to just do wholesale plagiarism, but now their copycat methods have changed somewhat.
Left: my piece in Thai Enquirer / Right: the Thaiger article
Very interesting interview (in Thai) with
@KornDemocrat
about the Democrat Party in the Prayut era. Korn discusses the Democrats' election performance and criticizes government policymaking .
NIDA's quarterly political support poll:
Move Forward 44.05%
Pheu Thai 24.05%
Undecided 16.10%
Democrat 3.6%
United Thai Nation 3.2%
Notable how large the gap therr is between MFP and PT. And how the former Prayut coalition parties are barely registering.
The
@ThaiEnquirer
Voter Guide is out!
This guide includes information about how this election works and the political landscape, and provides a whirlwind tour of each party's candidates and policy platforms.
#ThaiElection2023
It's really astounding to me whenever I see people not care about forced disappearances, intimidation, harassment because it's "the other side" bearing the brunt.
You can hate Thaksin and Thanathorn. But letting that override basic humanity is just sad.
Michigan's Southeast Asia in Social Science group has been running for two years now and "Chicken with Hicken" (
@a2hicken
) was our last event this semester. Grateful to have such a great community of SEA-focused students and researchers here in Ann Arbor!
@UMCSEAS
May 22nd saw a landslide victory for Chadchart in the race for Bangkok governor, while opposition parties captured the Bangkok Metropolitan Council. My takeaways from the capital's first local elections since 2013 in
@ThaiEnquirer
: #เลือกตั้งผู้ว่ากทม65
It's not a total guarantee, but yesterday's events makes it highly probable that the eight-party coalition supporting Pita will have to break up, leading to a political crossover. My quick analysis:
@ThaiEnquirer
It's a whole new world in Thai politics. Who would've thought, back in 2014, that it would be the Prayut government that ends up delivering the request for a royal pardon for Thaksin Shinawatra?
Did you know that the cannon used in the storming of the Bastille were Siamese gifts in 1686? Here's an account of the embassies between King Narai and King Louis XIV, as fun coronavirus distraction reading:
"The Thai government's investment in education is actually comparable to that of developed nations based on the percentage of national budgets...What hinders Thai education is not the lack of funding." Piece worth reading in the Bangkok Post:
Now that many parties have launched their policies for the upcoming general election, I thought it'd be useful to do a thread recapping for the different parties have pledged so far.
#thaielection2023
Dep. agricultural minister Thammanat's speech at the censure debate was a train wreck. Claimed that Thailand has now lost its sovereignty because it accepted his drug conviction in Australian courts. Wow. #อภิปรายไม่ใว้วางใจ
Move Forward decides not to vote for the Pheu Thai PM candidate. There will be no 'friendly opposition' to a Pheu Thai government. This also frees Pheu Thai to go all in on securing conservative support in parliament.
Purified in opposition, untainted by compromise, brand protected from the realities of governing: the start of the Srettha government signals trouble for Pheu Thai and show the stars already aligning for Move Forward.
@ThaiEnquirer
That many Thais are so surprised & outraged by the
#1MDB
revelations show how little we in Southeast Asia pay attention to the politics of neighbors. A lot of people had no idea what 1MDB, the biggest scandal in Malaysian history, was.
Instant reaction to PM vote:
1. Why did Thaksin come home before the PM vote? With Srettha Thavisin receiving far more votes than he needed to be PM, one explanation looks possible: it was a sign of confidence that a sympathetic government will soon be in power.
#โหวตนายกรอบ3
In recent weeks, Pita's legal troubles have led to renewed attention on a politician who almost became prime minister in the 1990s. Who was Somboon Rahong, and why did his bid for the premiership fail spectacularly at the last minute? In
@ThaiEnquirer
:
In Taiwan, an unpopular mayor was thrown out. In Thailand, you can't even keep the governors you like. My piece for
@ThaiEnquirer
on the need for further decentralization:
Thai education needs reform, and we must take the first steps towards teaching Thai history in a way that promotes critical thinking and inquiry. My piece for
@ThaiEnquirer
:
Worrying: "64.7% of youths and adults in Thailand are below the threshold levels of foundational reading literacy...The economic cost of below-threshold literacy and digital skills can be considerable, estimated at...20.1% of GDP in 2022."