Prof Jeffrey S Morris
@jsm2334
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George S. Pepper Professor of Public Health & Preventive Medicine; Biostats, Stats & Data Science, UPenn; lifelong learner & truth seeker; Views my own
Philadelphia, PA
Joined December 2014
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Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?
Recent data show death rate of 10-59yr olds who have watched the 1984 Ghostbuster Movie is 2x higher than those who have watched the 2021 Ghostbuster movie
I don't know how to explain this other than movie-caused mortality
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New paper in Heart compares vaccinated to unvaccinated with respect to cardiovascular events including myocardial infarction, heart failure, arrhythmia/cardiac arrest, myocarditis and clotting events including strokes, thrombosis deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, and…
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The internet is breaking today from viral claims that the new Pfizer data dump of 80k pages revealed real vaccine efficacy of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine in the phase 3 trial was in fact 12%, not 95%.
In this 🧵I investigate these claims.
🚨🚨 Pfizer data released today. 80,000 pages. Pfizer knew vaccine harmed the fetus in pregnant women, and that the vaccine was not 95% effective, Pfizer data shows it having a 12% efficacy rate.🚨🚨
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Steve Kirsch gave a presentation at MIT claiming that 1/1000 of those vaccinated with covid vaccines are killed by the vaccines using New Zealand data he obtained (which would imply >12,000 killed by vaccine among the >12m doses given in New Zealand to date, in a country that…
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When you are senior editor of a journal and handle your own paper, it is not peer review, it is an editorial:
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New article in Circulation studies sudden deaths and sudden cardiac deaths in USA NCAA college athletes between July 1, 2002 and June 30, 2022.
There is a net decrease of occurrence in the past 20 years, with no increase evident from COVID-19 or COVID-19 vaccinations.
There…
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I have seen many people forwarding this graphic around, claiming that the UK ONS data show that the death rate for vaccinated individuals was much higher than unvaccinated, suggesting vaccines were dangerous and killing people.
This plot is inaccurate and misleading.
In this…
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Maybe someone should explain this to Alex Berenson before he writes another SubStack post, or the thousands of people forwarding this around social media and alternative social media platforms.
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1/n
Annals of Internal Medicine just published our epidemiological study of vaccine effectiveness in children and teens during the delta and omicron waves based on large USA pediatric cohorts accounting for nearly 4% of the USA pediatric population.
The study found strong…
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Many are confused by results that >1/2 of hospitalized in Israel are vaccinated, thinking this means vaccines don't work. I downloaded actual Israeli data and show why these data provide strong evidence vaccines strongly protect vs. serious disease (1/8)
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@drdrew
@naomirwolf
@DrKellyVictory
@joshg99
@AskDrDrew
The extra menstrual bleeding had been known to be a side effect for a long time, Drew, with many papers on the topic including this paper from over a year ago () and 14 papers from
2021-2022 described in this review article ()
She…
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@USMortality
Not surprised to see you ignore/dismiss this enormously large and quite well done study without even evaluating it.
Much more fun to you to put forth speculative claims from simple population level totals, isn’t it?
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@stkirsch
Yeah, I have a feeling people are not going to trust a guy sitting down next to them and offering them obscene amounts of $$ for anything.
And it is not because they value the mask on the flight at >$100k, but because of their distrust of a person making such an offer
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The fact that a scurrilous claim that the phase 3 trial in fact had 12% vaccine efficacy that was falsely represented as 95% can go completely viral on social media without documentation or verification that the claim is true shows the sad state of affairs in our modern society
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I should have clarified these cardiovascular events being compared are post SARS-CoV-2 infection
Also should have specified it covers the time period starting early 2021 when rollouts started and the various data sources ending December 2021, February 2022, June 2022, and…
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Here is a blog post presenting this parody with the luxury of escaping the 280 character limit:
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@stkirsch
Of course, viruses don't travel as isolated individual molecules, but in droplets or aerosolized particles of varying size and properties.
Lots of these dynamics are studied, and provide justification for some benefit of various types of masks in reducing the exposure to the…
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It illustrates the fact that many people don't question information presented to them if it feeds a narrative they believe and want to promote.
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An Epoch Times article discusses a recent paper by FDA researchers assessing safety of Pfizer and Moderna bivalent boosters given to 8,638,661 and 5,240,178 individuals, respectively, comparing incidence rate of 18 different serious adverse events of special interest (including…
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Does a recently published paper by Peter McCullough and colleagues really “establish a mechanistic framework” for mRNA vaccine harm?
This thread will explore that question.
@AshishKJha46
@lpachter
@nataliexdean
@MonicaGandhi9
@CT_Bergstrom
@BallouxFrancois
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Just put up a website that aggregates and tries to provide a balanced discussion of Covid-19 research results, data sets, applications and models, and commentaries and linking to useful data sets and models
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I was told by everyone that the 1984 Ghostbusters movie was safe and amusing, and never anticipated it could be so dangerous to young people!
It appears the 2021 film is MUCH safer, and strongly preferred, but this fact has been hidden by conspiracy
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@WesterTrent
@ScottAdamsSays
Here is a screenshot of his article — to quote him “I don’t know how to explain this other than vaccine-caused mortality”
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Since unless the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine were intended to prevent all coughs, fevers, chills, sore throats, muscle pain, shortness of breath, vomiting, etc., from any cause, these "suspected but unconfirmed cases" should clearly NOT be included in calculation of VE.
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@ichudov
Thank you for clarifying these were studying post infection events — I should have clarified that in the original post and will add now.
Your claim that vaccines increase the risk of infection is laughably false however.
This study covers the period of time starting early 2021…
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In this blog post, I go through the recent Israeli data in detail to explore what it tells us about efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine vs. severe disease with the Delta variant.
#deltavariant
#israel
#pfizervaccine
#vaccines
#covid19pandemic
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Thus, maybe the 2x higher rate of death among 1984 Ghostbuster movie watchers has another explanation other than movie-caused mortality.
Maybe it is the dramatic difference in age distribution in watchers of a GenX film vs. a Post-Millenial film that explains the death disparity
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These threads are full of conspiratorial claims, accusations of criminal behavior, and all kinds of other hysterical hand-wringing, all confidently stating as fact that these documents revealed the "real" efficacy of the vaccine in the trial was 12%.
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I was curious to see how excess deaths related to vaccination rate by state in the USA.
Here is % excess deaths (3/1/20-7/31/22) vs. % fully vaccinated (7/31/22) from CDC all cause death data.
Nonlinear smooth fit shows strong negative correlation (Spearman r=-0.58, p<0.00001).
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@denisrancourt
@denisrancourt
Why do you completely ignore the fact that the excess deaths all over the world largely cluster in spikes that happen to correspond to spikes of confirmed Covid cases and Covid-attributed deaths?
They don’t line up with strictness of Covid mitigation, and they…
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Nice article on Kirsch's New Zealand claims.
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New “long covid” type study from Singapore looking at risk of cardiovascular events after recovery from Covid infection.
Used solid methodology and looked at effect modification by age, sex, severity of disease, and vaccination status
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Large contact tracing study in UK shows Pfizer vaccine reduces transmission by 82% vs alpha and 65% vs delta and AstraZeneca by 63% and 36%, respectively.
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@nicholaraihani
@HermanPontzer
Beware of the ecological fallacy! Just because there is not associations in the country level aggregate for the two variables does not mean that there are no associations at the individual level (which is what we really care about in this case)
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Myocarditis is well known to be a key risk of mRNA vaccines, especially for young men, as well as COVID-19 infection.
This large Nordic study compares clinical outcomes after vaccine-associated, COVID-19 associated, and conventional myocarditis:
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Morale of the story:
Be careful not to infer causation from correlation, especially given the complex pandemic data with all kinds of biases, and especially when confirmation bias (jumping to conclusions based on your preconceived notions) is involved.
Data interpretation 101
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So these 3410 "suspected but unconfirmed" cases were people who experienced one of those symptoms and came in for a PCR test, but for whom the PCR test was negative.
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Here is a link to a 50 minute seminar I just gave today discussing some of the epidemiological fallacies that have confused many during the pandemic, and led to a great deal of misinterpretation/misrepresentations of observational data.
I discuss base rate fallacy, age and time…
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I have written an article detailing these calculations and explanations:
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For those raising alarm from the recent published paper suggesting 1/1000 vaccinated got myocarditis, the paper had been retracted because they got the denominator wrong - ~833k vaccinated in the area not ~33k. So rate is 1/25k similar to other studies.
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Here is a blog post detailing the points in this thread:
If there is other documentation for this VE=12% claim that I am missing please post below.
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Im glad to see PennDOT came up with a creative short term solution to the downed bridge on I95 in Northeast Philly!
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Digging further, I noticed the probability of seeing 1984 film is higher for those older in the spectrum, while demographic of those watching the 2021 film is much younger.
I guess that makes sense, since for GenX'ers the 1984 movie came out in their childhood and teen years.
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Lancet paper based on >3.4m USA patients found Pfizer vaccine effectiveness (VE) vs. infection decreased from 88% 1m after vaccination to 47% after 5m, but that VE vs. hospitalization remained strong at 93% through 6m.
This 🧵 will summarize key results.
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BTW here are plots of excess deaths over time plotted against (1) vaccinations done and (2) covid deaths over time for many other countries all over the world for people to consider.
As I would emphasize, any genuine attempt to assess potential causal effects of vaccines…
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Here is a twitter thread on a similar situation involving these SARS-CoV-2 vaccines going around:
and a detailed blog post:
The UK published all cause death data from 1/2/21-9/24/21 split out by vaccination status/age group:
In young (10-59yr), all cause deaths in 2 dose group are ~2x higher than unvaccinated.
Does this mean the vaccines are "killing more than they save?"
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So which document contained this result? None of these tweets explain this, and although in some of the threads people comment asking that question, there is really not any consistent response.
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Incidentally, this document was transparently released to the public the week before the FDA VRBPAC meeting in December 2020 deciding the EUA, so is not a new revelation from this 80k page document dump this week.
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We published a paper this week in Health Affairs demonstrating that mask mandates reduced county-level case counts 23-33% within 6wk, decreasing to 16% after 6wk, higher in urban areas
We adjusted for confounding by matching counties with/without mandates
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The UK published all cause death data from 1/2/21-9/24/21 split out by vaccination status/age group:
In young (10-59yr), all cause deaths in 2 dose group are ~2x higher than unvaccinated.
Does this mean the vaccines are "killing more than they save?"
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She is making the same specious argument Peter Doshi did in his editorial in British Medical Journal in January 2021, which I refuted in detail in my blog post that same month.
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@danorlovsky7
@Chiefs
@ArrowheadPride
@LauraRutledge
@minakimes
@Realrclark25
In those examples you gave, his feet were maybe just up on the line where the back of the ball is.
On the last play, he appears quite a bit further up -- the ball is back at the 49.5 and the front of Toney's foot is in front of the 49.
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In this thread I will make some comments on the recently published paper in Cureus entitled "Increased age-adjusted cancer mortality after the third mRNA lipid nanoparticle vaccine dose during the covid-19 pandemic"
The title is extremely misleading, given their data do not show…
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Yesterday CDC released a report tracking rates of cardiac issues (myo/pericarditis) after infection or mRNA vaccination combining information across 40 health systems in the USA, stratified by age/sex.
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Best as I can tell, this claim originates from a substack post by Sonia Elijah on May 3rd.
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Digging some more, I found UK data showing age-specific mortality rates from 2019.
Even though the overall 10-59yr mortality rate is 149.5 per 100k
It varies from 8.8 per 100k (10-14yr) to 478.2 per 100k (55-59yr)
Thus, the older have a death risk >50x higher than the younger
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1. Using a biased experimental design,
2. removing all sensitivity analyses showing lack of robustness of your conclusions to modeling assumptions, and
3. removing result tables about much higher increased risk of cardiac death after Covid infection
in a paper purported to…
PhD-trained physician revises report based on his scientific expertise = “scandalous altering of results” 🤣
Fauci enthusiasts are terrified and will do anything to divert attention from the risks of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines— especially cardiac deaths.
Truth will prevail.
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If you look through the protocol (which again was transparently posted online in its entirety 2 years ago) you see no mention of a category of COVID-19 cases that are "suspected but unconfirmed."
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Besides this tweet from
@kellyjo0813
, there are numerous other tweets making this claim that have gone viral in the past 2 days.
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Data presented below show nearly 33% of unvaccinated adult Israeli residents were previously infected.
Why is this important & has this contributed to misinterpretation of Israeli data?
This thread wll explore these questions.
1/n
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The choice of "suspected but unconfirmed cases" to refer to those with negative PCR was an unfortunate choice of terms that contributed to this confusion, and led many like Doshi & Elijah to claim that these were in fact COVID-19 cases that were insidiously excluded from analysis
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@jburnmurdoch
I have updated these numbers from currently active cases as of Sept 2, 2021, along with an explanation in the original blog post:
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This is seemingly where the viral claim of 12% comes from.
Now if it were true that there were 1594 COVID-19 cases in vaccine arm and 1816 in placebo, indeed VE=12%
However, we have to look at what is meant by "suspected but unconfirmed" cases in the Pfizer/BioNTech trial
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Elijah's SubStack makes speculative comments about false positives on PCR tests to try to justify this, but given the false positive rate of the test used in the trial is 2% (as shown in this FDA document), this does not support her claims.
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@MarkWar16520311
The randomized clinical trial showed 20x reduction of risk of symptomatic infection, and numerous real world observational studies validated this, demonstrating ~90% reduction of infection risk in the first 6m after rollout (before antibody waning and emergence of Omicron)…
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This got me thinking, "I wonder if the different age distributions have something to do with this."
So I computed the expected mortality rate for the cohorts watching the 1984 and 2021 movies based on a weighted average using their age distribution.
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Thus, based on the disparate age distributions, we would expect people watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie to have a death rate of 192.3/79.7=2.4x as high as the death rate of people watching the 2021 Ghostbusters:Afterlife Movie.
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Those who receive a positive PCR test are "confirmed COVID-19 cases" that are included in the primary efficacy analysis, and those whose PCR test is negative are "suspected but unconfirmed COVID-19 cases."
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Expose has an article today suggesting UK ONS COVID-19 death data show strongly negative vaccine effectiveness vs. death for April and May 2022.
In this brief 🧵 I show how blatantly and transparently misleading it is.
@weexposenews
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@GeneralRipper22
@ichudov
The words are chosen for emphasis since the claim is ridiculous in light of the evidence in the extensive literature
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Looking at those numbers, I see that a group of 10-59yr old people with the age distribution of those watching the 1984 movie would have an expected mortality rate of 192.3 per 100k
While a group with age distribution of those watching the 2021 would be 79.7 per 100k.
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BTW, published report when Israel had 152 hospitalized breakthrough infections showed 40% of these cases were immunocompromised & 96% had comorbidities, so serious delta breakthrough infections in those without preexisting conditions nearly non-existent.
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Her claims are based on the December 2020 Pfizer FDA briefing document for the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) meeting deciding the EUA on December 10, 2020.
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@FLSurgeonGen
1. Since death events clearly prevent future exposure periods, this violates the assumptions underlying SCCS. Have you made adjustments to your analysis to take this into account and mitigate the bias it causes?
From the article you linked:
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@denisrancourt
No it clearly was Covid.
And now that Covid is not killing as many, the death rates have come close to returning to prepandemic levels -/ much lower than the huge levels seen in 2020-2022 (varying across countries which years the covid waves really caused the deaths)
Too bad…
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See this discussion as well:
🚨 Steve Kirsch PROVES the Covid vaccines aren't killing people!
Last night at MIT
@stkirsch
gave a presentation using illegally acquired "record level data" from New Zealand.
While Steve claimed the data "proves" the vaccines are "killing" at high rates in reality the data is…
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From the fact that there were 3410 total "suspected but unconfirmed" cases, with 1594 occurring in the vaccine group vs. 1816 in the placebo group, she estimates that the "true VE" should actually be reported as 1-1594/1816 x 100% = 12.2%.
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Face Masks Are Safe To Wear. Why masks don’t cause Long COVID, and… | by Gideon M-K; Health Nerd | Apr, 2023 | Medium
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The protocol states that anyone reporting one of these symptoms is a "suspected" COVID-19 patient who should immediately arrange a potential COVID-19 illness visit to receive a PCR test to determine if they are infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus or not.
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She claims the "real VE" should be computed based on the "suspected but unconfirmed" COVID-19 cases in the study, which she claims is "buried" in the document (implying some sort of intentional obfuscation).
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The only time "suspected" is used in the protocol is in the context of determining when a "potential COVID-illness visit" should be scheduled to give a SARS-CoV-2 PCR test based on reported symptoms.
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Their conclusion uses the classic “shifting the burden” trick, presuming that it is the responsibility of the scientific community to disprove their hypotheses rather than their responsibility to prove it. This tactic has been common in the pandemic.
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In this SubStack post, she claims that the 95% VE computed based on the fact that 162 of placebo patients had confirmed (PCR+) COVID infections and the vaccine arm only 8 was misleading.
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As described in Section 8.13, page 99/146, of the protocol, they did this by instructing subjects to immediately contact the site for a SARS-CoV-2 PCR test if they experienced any of the a number of symptoms anew that COULD indicate potential COVID-19:
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In fact, so much of their evidence is from papers on severe COVID-19 infections, not vaccination, much content in this article might be better suited to a paper pointing out potential downstream dangers of severe COVID infections rather than raising alarm about mRNA vaccination
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@DowdEdward
You realize this study was completed before the vaccines and before the pandemic, right, Ed?
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@DrJBhattacharya
You do realize that the serology tests have false positive rates of 1% or a little more, right?
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@denisrancourt
has published a 130-page document purporting to show that the excess deaths in various southern hemisphere countries are driven by vaccines, and calling for vaccinations to be halted everywhere.
He estimates that vaccines have killed 17 million around the world.…
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Nice instructional video explaining points I have made many times on twitter:
1. That during the pandemic many people are falling for the "post hoc ergo proptor hoc" fallacy (or "post hoc" fallacy") -- thinking that because an event (such as death or serious health event)…
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These include common, generic symptoms including fever, cough, shortness of breath, chills, muscle pain, sore throat, vomiting, diarrhea, etc. that obviously could occur for many reasons other than SARS-CoV-2 infection.
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BTW, only a total of 9 of these SCDs (5% of total) were adjudicated as being caused by myocarditis.
8 were pre-pandemic, and 1 was during the pandemic (also pre-vaccination) but was a subtype of myocarditis that is deemed to be unrelated to COVID-19.
So none of the SCD in NCAA…
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Just peeked at Israeli MOH 11/9 data on current infection/serious infection rates split out by unvaccinated, boosted, & vax/not boosted.
We see boosted strongly protected vs. infection, and vaccinated/boosted show evidence of waning effectiveness, but still 50-70% VE_infection
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@TorySnyc
He doesn’t tell you that:
1. The baselines in his projections are not actuarial baselines but based on his baseless assumption that HVE is only 3 weeks and death rates 3-5wk after dose represent baseline death rate and any increase is vaccine caused deaths.
2. The increases he…
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I've seen recent strong claims that there have been substantial excess cancer deaths since Spring 2021 based on the CDC cause-specific death data from
(1) prepandemic (2014-2019) to establish baseline rates
(2) provisional deaths during pandemic (2020-2022)
Let's take a look.
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@TracyBethHoeg
, Duresetti, and
@VPrasadMDMPH
published a commentary in
@NEJM
yesterday pointing out unmeasured confounding due to the healthy vaccinee effect (HVE) in a December 2021
@NEJM
paper published by a group led by Clalit researcher
@ArbelRonen
.
They pointed out a 94.8%…
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If you download the data from the ONS website () and compute the death rates for unvaccinated vs. ever vaccinated, you'll see that the unvaccinated has higher non-COVID death rates than vaccinated for this time period
See the plot and screen shots of the…
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