🚨ATROCITY ALERT 🚨 1) Most remaining civilians have not fled El Fasher - likely trapped or dead 2) RSF continues mass killings 3) Displaced people visible in Garni, location of reported gross human rights abuses. #KeepEyesOnSudan 🛰️@vantortech @AirbusDS https://t.co/1HApllgfVx

Complexity requires care and a good faith community of practice. Surely discourse better for other fora but nonetheless appreciate any clarity you could provide here. 6/end

I appreciate how you often cite theory—I am also old school and believe that arms control can be used to mutually reinforce deterrence to create strategic stability, providing decision makers with greater clarity of adversarial intentions—clarity that is in great demand rn. 5/5

This thinking argues that based on US counterforce targeting and damage limitation strategies, US forces must change to reflect CH’s arming decision—a change that would be different, if say, CH solely built up its SLBM force. Essentially, CH action necessitates US reaction. 4/5

Is the US not currently engaged in action-reaction planning regarding to China’s recent build-up of their ICBM force? Your work, the SPC, and Pranay/Vipin (via Strategic Simplicity) all say US forces and posture should change to reflect CH’s ICBM arming decisions. 3/5

@Matt_Costlow I have read much of your work on what you describe as "inaccuracies" of action-reaction dynamics. Personally, I also believe that arming decisions are complex, bureaucratic, and often made years (or sometimes decades) prior. But I do have a question for you~ 2/5

I tend to bristle at the rhetorical wedges that commentators drive between deterrence and arms control—especially as complex future threats demand more from both. At risk of being "historically illiterate," I think better appreciating cause and effect leads to better strategy 🧵

Having worked multiple famine scenarios, the first deaths of children and elders are simply the initial swell of the wave of fatalities. It is not the crest. The crest will come soon if aid doesn’t move freely right now. Let @UNRWA @UNOCHA do their jobs.

HAPPENING NOW!!  Moving scene - tears, hugs, and cheers - inside the State Dept HQ tonight, as diplomats gathered in the lobby to clap out their laid off colleague, some of which have served for decades 👇🏻

An HIV doctor in Africa, whose work depends on USAID and PEPFAR, sends in a dispatch of the bleak situation now unfolding there https://t.co/Pvo239Fh7u

We are appalled and saddened as Abdullah Hammad, who worked with us until 30 June, was killed yesterday in Gaza while trying to collect a bag of flour.  Israeli forces deliberately targeted a group of people waiting for aid trucks, killing at least 16. https://t.co/RCtPgddnr5

Due to the generosity of largely small amount, individual donors on the internet, @HRL_YaleSPH work on Ukraine and Sudan will continue until at least until October. We are forever grateful. How it feels seeing the world show up for us in our hour of need:

My chart on the history of three infectious diseases —smallpox, polio, and measles — before and after a vaccine was available.

If this is the extend of #Iran’s retaliation then it’s carefully calibrated and intended to allow for an off-ramp for everyone

The @HRL_YaleSPH is conducting work that creates the conditions for RU-UKR peace by documenting the Ukrainian kids that need to come home. Donate if you can.

It is unconscionable that some of the best State Department funded work is being ended. This team has fought for years to document Russian war crimes and document the abduction of Ukrainian children.

DOGE employee says "I personally was pretty surprised, actually, at how efficient the government was," fraud was minimal, and abuse was "relatively nonexistent" https://t.co/k0d0bOcgIi

Russia continues its illegal biological weapons program and seeks to upend the rules based global order. Now is not the time to be weak on deterrence. As @DOD_Policy shapes the 2025 National Defense Strategy, biological threats must be addressed. https://t.co/ccGA3FJn91

It's great to have you as part of the first cohort of Nuclear Futures Fellows!

This fellowship continues to be a tremendous contribution to my work and the greater field! I cannot sing the praises of @plough_shares and @Horizon2045 enough!