Jose P. Vasquez
@jpvasq
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Economist. @LSEManagement. My work is about international trade, labo(u)r markets, and economic development. 🇨🇷
London, UK
Joined December 2015
🚨 New Tariffs Paper Alert! 🚨 We use a state-of-the-art quantitative dynamic trade model to assess the economic consequences of recent U.S. tariff increases across U.S. states and the global economy.
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RT @FedericoHuneeus: Interested in Micro-to-Macro Development research? . Save the date of this workshop on December 9-10, 2025, in Montevi….
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RT @DanielYiXu: VoxDev has a great summary of our new paper. The lesson is also relevant for the design of domestic offset market for Chin….
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RT @imanelici: The @CEP_LSE -@LSEEcon -@warwickecon Junior trade Workshop is back on Sept 22! It considers papers from PhD students and po….
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RT @CEP_LSE: Insights into the economic impacts of the Trump tariffs on the US and globally. Andres RodrĂguez-Clare @UCBerkeley , Mauricio….
cepr.org
In 2025, the US government announced a series of tariff increases targeting major trading partners, including Canada, China, and Mexico. This column estimates the economic consequences of these...
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RT @DennisNovy: Abstract:. “Trade Diversion and Labor Market Outcomes”. by Natalie Chen, Dennis Novy, Diego Solórzano . @warwickecon @cepr_….
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RT @christianvolpem: The annual conference of the Trade, Integration, and Growth Network (#TIGN) will take place at the IDB in Montevideo,….
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RT @stevehou0: 🚨 Long train ride post. Good paper. Actually the results are more nuanced than the abstract lets on and it gets at the cor….
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RT @NickTimiraos: SF Fed working paper: "Higher tariffs trigger an expansion in U.S. manufacturing employment, but this comes at the expens….
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RT @a_presbitero: 📢📢Very glad to have our paper on how specialized #banks helped U.S. firms reroute their supply chains after the 2018-2019….
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RT @loyaladvisor: This roots back to my first few minutes teaching trade law to undergrads. We talk though @NPR what makes a t-shirt, detai….
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Read the full paper here: Stay tuned for updates. We plan to add more countries soon. #TradePolicy #Economics #LiberationDay #USTariffs #EconTwitter #TradeWar.
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Our model may underestimate very short-run impacts due to: 1) Cobb-Douglas tech assumption (elast. of subst. across inputs may be < 1); 2) Smoothing of shocks across agents; 3) Omit uncertainty/geopolitical shifts.
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Alternative scenarios highlight sensitivity to trade elasticity. With low elasticity (relative to benchmarks in the literature), the U.S. could gain real income (via higher market power with their trade partners) but potentially lose manufacturing jobs.
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Close U.S. trading partners—-including Canada, Mexico, China, & Ireland—-experience the largest global real income losses (~2-3%).
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Aggregate U.S. real GDP falls by around 1% by 2028. This fall masks significant state-level differences. Roughly half of U.S. states see real income losses, some exceeding 3%.
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In our baseline (tariffs last 4-yrs, 100% retaliation), higher tariffs temporarily boost U.S. manufacturing jobs. However, services & agric employment falls, leading to ~1.1% overall U.S. employment drop.
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Our model includes tariff revenue & flexible redistribution of this revenue, regions (U.S. states/countries) & sectors linked via input-output structure, involuntary unemployment due to DNWR, & imperfect worker mobility across sectors.
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