Jon Ma
@jonbma
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Building @Artemis__xyz | ex VC @InsightPartners @Whalerock & Cofounder @Publiccomps | ❤️ SaaS, Stablecoins, Crypto
Brooklyn, NY
Joined March 2009
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🚨 Stablecoin Marketmap Alert 🚨
Team at
@artemis__xyz
is building the most comprehensive stablecoin marketmap.
Would love your input if we're missing anything 👇
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Calm is another B2C that came from behind
Started 2 years after Headspace
With $1.5m seed round, Calm got to $40m and profitable
Overtook Headspace in revenue in '17 despite having a smaller team and now Calm is reportedly raising a $2b.
Same markets different outcomes. Why?
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1K
UIPath History 🚀
2005: Started as a tech outsourcing company
2014: $500k rev. $1.6m seed round
2015: $1m rev.
2016: $3.5m rev
2017: $30m rev.
2018: $155m rev.
2019: $336m rev
2020: $607m rev
One of the fastest-growing SaaS companies ever 🔥
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Procore 👷♀️just dropped its S-1 🚨
🏗 Cloud-based SaaS for construction
1️⃣$339m ARR growing 55% YoY
2️⃣-12% LTM FCF %
3️⃣13 month payback period
4️⃣117% net dollar retention & 95% gross logo retention
5️⃣ Burned $186m w/ $339m ARR = 1.8x cash efficiency
👉
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❄️ Snowflake S-1 & IPO Teardown ❄️
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Due to COVID, Telemedicine is on 🔥
👩⚕️Hims & Hers ~$160m RR up 91% YoY
🥼Teladoc ~$1.1b RR up 109% YoY
📱Livongo ~$424 up 126% YoY
📹 Twilio usage among healthcare customers up 100%+
👨⚕️GoodRx "other" rev $64m RR up 170% YoY (includes telehealth)
👉Telehealth is here to stay
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Atlassian breaks down its view on market size:
🧠800 million knowledge workers
🤓100 million technical professionals
😮50 million registered Trello users
💻23 million software developers
👉Software devs make up only ~3% of all knowledge workers!
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❄️ Snowflake is the best SaaS IPO in 2020❄️
3️⃣ Growth rate at 121% YoY on $500m+ ARRR
2️⃣ Net Dollar Retention at 158%
5️⃣ Rule of 40 at 97%
👊 21 month payback with high ACVS at $160k
📊 Thesis is all data will go to ☁️
👉
Source:
@publiccomps
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“If you are depressed you are living in the past.
If you are anxious you are living in the future.
If you are at peace you are living in the present.”
- Lao Tzu
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🔥In 2019, we had 11 High Growth SaaS IPOs🔥
⚡️Here's what it takes to go Public in 2020 ⚡️
💰ARR of $332m
📈49% YoY Rev Growth
⚡️120% Net Dollar Retention
💵-6.7% LTM FCF
👋 11 month payback period
💪 8/11 companies had free trials or self-service
👉
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Crypto is real.
I traveled to Nairobi and met the
@Haraka_xyz
team which is building on
@Celo
and using
@MentoLabs
issued cKES.
Haraka provides microloans to small business owners in Kenya and Ghana collateralized by social reputation (e.g. group of friends who form a savings
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Excited to announce that I'm joining
@whalerock
🐳
1️⃣ I'll be focused on investing in late-stage private companies
2️⃣ Pumped to be reunited with my co-founder
@Chowybear
3️⃣ Transitioning to advisor at
@publiccomps
but the team is in good hands!
👉
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📊The best platform companies (Shopify, Stripe, Atlassian) enable other companies.
❄️Snowflake is already doing that with dbt (transform data in CDW), Fivetran (move data into CDW), Sigma (BI/Analytics for CDW)
👉Expect many more companies to be built around Snowflake
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$CRM is an M&A machine 🤖
1️⃣ Mulesoft for $6.4b
$284m rev w/ 38% YoY -> now $665m w/ 52% YoY
2️⃣ Exact Target for $2.5b
$286m rev w/ 30% YoY -> $1.4b w/ 24% YoY
3️⃣Tableau for $15.3b
$902m ARR w/ 40% YoY -> $1.5b ARR
4️⃣ Slack for $27b
$936m ARR w/ 39% YoY -> ?
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Crowdstrike almost never loses customers 💪
👉 98% gross retention rate is rock solid. Hard to imagine customers churning off of Crowdstrike if it literally protects you from customer breaches.
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❄️ $SNOW is the fastest growing Public SaaS company since hitting $100m ARR 🔥
8 quarter since $100m ARR, $SNOW ($532m ARRR, 121% YoY) is growing even faster than:
- $CRWD ($365m, 115%)
- $ZM ($432m, 108%)
- $CRM ($331m, 104%)
- $MDB ($226m, 89%)
👀
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5/ Interesting quote: “Calm has managed to overtake Headspace because they’ve been laser-focused without getting distracted by the types of vanity partnerships, like with sports teams, that look good in the press but don’t move the needle,” says Harley Miller a Calm investor.
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Best startups had trouble raising early on
🛌 In 2007, Airbnb had trouble raising at $1.5m b/c "travel not area of focus"
🍯In 2014, Honey went to SV and rejected by 20 VCs b/c not "mobile"
🧘♀️In 2016, Calm was called "load of nonsense" and "fluffy meditation app"
What else?
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Shopify is a product innovation machine ⏭🤖
😲 $SHOP consistently ships out new products to enable merchants to start -> sell -> market -> manage their business
🛳Ability to consistently ship out new product = best predictor of long term company success?
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Zoom is the best SaaS company 🔥
1️⃣Growing the fastest: $3.5b ARR and 369% y/y growth
2️⃣Super profitable: 43% FCF % ($1.5b FCF run rate)
3️⃣Customers Expanding: >130% net dollar retention
4️⃣Ton of cash for M&A 🤖 ($4.3b)
5️⃣Up 10% after hours
👉
$ZM
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Fantastic read. H/t
@kevinzhang
!
The Next 20-Year Cycle in Business Software | by Ajay | Ideas from Bain Capital Ventures | Nov, 2020 | Medium
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Databricks is 🚀
At $425m ARR growing 75% with $28b valuation
- Databricks trades for 64x ARR (not quite the 100x+ ARR Snowflake trades at)
- 6th fastest-growing SaaS company
👉
Source:
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$ZM is now trading at 55x ARR with >$40b EV.
Servicenow is $45b of enterprise value and has $3.8b ARR.
$NOW is 5x the ARR scale, more profitable, yet same EV as $ZM 🙃
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How to justify Snowflake's valuation? ❄️
Assume Snowflake will CAGR revenue at 60%+ over 5 years (in other words they'll 10x revenue in 5 years)
And trade at 15x+ EV/ARR in 2025 (median EV/ARR for high growth SaaS is 20x today)
Not totally unreasonable
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Worth remembering B2B Payments (e.g Amazon merchant paying a supplier to manufacture umbrellas) is MUCH larger than C2B payments (e.g you paying for an item on Amazon)
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What are SaaS companies with network effects?
- Crowdstrike: more endpoints -> more threats detected -> higher accuracy -> fewer breaches -> more customers
- Slack: customer invites to shared channel -> external party messages customer & pays for slack -> invites another party
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Any other tools we're missing in our retail investing market map?
@JoinCommonstock
@public
@getBamSEC
@RobinhoodApp
@atom_finance
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@chetanp
Impressive that Jetbrains
1️⃣~$350,000 revenue/employee (assume 2019 grew ~30% rev YoY)
2️⃣50% FCF % in 2018 is insane -- highest margin for dev tools company. Higher than $TEAM which is 32%
3️⃣~$600 annual revenue/customer. 👏 considering add 2k individual customers/day
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A lot of duopolies in consumer internet companies
😴 Calm and Headspace are 85% of all meditation app downloads
🌭Doordash and Uber own 76% of food delivery
🚖Uber and Lyft make up 90%+ of rideshare
🛒Instacart and Walmart make up 82% of online grocery
What else?
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2/ Maybe it goes back to "constraints foster creativity". Running low on cash, Calm "kept the team size under 10, worked long hours in a one-bedroom apartment in San Francisco and sharply questioned every outgoing dollar."
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Food Delivery is 📈
🚗Doordash Q3'20: $879m net rev +267% y/y
🚖UberEats Q3'20: $1.4b net rev +125% y/y
🚙Postmates Q2'20: $160m net rev +125% y/y
🇩🇪DeliveryHero Q3'20: $938m net rev +99.5% y/y
🍔Grubhub Q3'20: $494m net rev +53% y/y
🇨🇳Meituan Q3'20: $3.1b net rev +33% y/y
$DASH
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"Looking back, I wish I spent less time reading TechCrunch articles featuring big fundraises or VCs discussing post-PMF concepts because none of that matters in the early days. If anything, that content is detrimental for early-stage founders."
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Here's our S-1 & IPO Teardown of Procore 👷♂️
👉
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🙏🏼Top 5 Dev Tools 2021 that we 🧡
@publiccomps
🙏🏼
1️⃣
@stytch
: User infrastructure
2️⃣
@logrocket
: Frontend monitoring & product analytics
3️⃣
@getarctype
: SQL client
4️⃣
@Retool
: Build internal tools
5️⃣
@CommandBar
: End-user onboarding
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Twilio continues to 📈
1️⃣$2B RR growing 65% (52% last Q)
2️⃣139% NDR (137% last Q)
3️⃣FCF 0% and Rule Of 40 = 64%
4️⃣ 15 month payback period
5️⃣ Up 13% AH
👉
$TWLO
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Talked to the manager of this LA dumpling restaurant.
He said because of $DASH they’re doing MORE in revenue during COVID because no longer limited by seats.
👉 Crazy how Doordash and food delivery enables some restaurants to thrive during the pandemic 🙌🏼
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Alteryx $AYX💻 is down 18% today
But business is $600m+ ARR growing 75% YoY, profitable with 10% current quarter FCF %, and 130% NDR. ~$1b of cash on b/s.
Trades at EV/NTM ARR of 7.1x today and $7.3b EV.
High growth profitable SaaS taking a hit
👉
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A big reason why I joined
@ModernTreasury
this summer was this tweet by
@dadiomov
.
I was wrapping up 2nd semester of HBS and heard from
@andylouisqin
how amazing the culture was.
After 3 months, it became clear MT cares deeply about culture + oppty for others to learn and grow
2/ When I was in business school I got the opportunity to take a class with Clay Christensen, and this message of his really stuck with me.
Slow down and read this over a cup of tea. Clay spoke slowly, with pauses that let your mind wander.
It’s best read, slowly.
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My guess
1/ Calm was leaner so had to focus on building a simple and well-designed meditation app that was high quality and not focus on corporations and B2B deals. I remember preferring Calm because of the "daily calm" over Headspace which I felt was unwieldy at times
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❄️ Today, Snowflake = $105B enterprise value
👀 $SNOW trades for 113.8x EV/NTM revenue
But $ZM $SHOP are bigger, faster, profitable
❄️$SNOW: $105B EV, $638m ARRR 119% y/y, -23% FCF %
📹$ZM: $119B EV, $3.1b ARR 367% y/y, +50% FCF %
🛒$SHOP: $125B EV, $3.1b ARRR 96 y/y, +12% FCF
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🥊SaaS is getting hit by COVID-19 🥊
BVP Cloud Index down 25% ↘️
B2B SaaS multiples down 30% ↘️
But why?
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B2B SaaS is rarely winner takes all
Even Salesforce $CRM is only ~20% marketshare even though they're synonymous with CRM...
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Crowdstrike 📈
At $1.2b ARR growing 74% y/y, Crowdstrike added $144m net new ARR last quarter.
That's roughly the same amount of ARR SentinelOne has today at ~$161m ARR
$CRWD $S
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How many CEOs say "I love you all" to customers on earnings calls? 🥰
$ZM "Thank you, Peloton. Thank you, Rakuten. Thank you, Israel Ministry of Education. I love you all. Also thank you as well to all other customers. Your trust and happiness energize the entire Zoom team."
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Bullish on real apps in crypto.
They’re coming.
@artemis__xyz
is one. We track onchain activity to help people understand what the heck is happening onchain.
Artemis is a data app that sits on top of networks and monitors chains and provides unbiased and 3rd party analytics to
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Fundamentals will matter in crypto.
As crypto grows as an asset class ($2.5T today -> $10T overtime), institutions will be the predominat flow into assets.
Institutions will look for fundamentals, factors and apply frameworks that made sense in traditional assets
Narratives
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💻 Elastic is ~$400m ARR growing 60%+ YoY
📈EV/ARR toped 21x ARR in 2019 (~what Datadog trades at) but now $ESTC trades at 9x ARR
💰~$300m of cash and consumed $50m of cash in 2019 implies 4-6 year cash runway
🔍
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"The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets"
1. Bitcoin 🏆- $7.2k down 40% from 365 day high $11.8k in June '19
2. High Growth SaaS 📈e.g $WORK (-46% drop from all-time high), $CRWD (-53%), $ZS (-46%), $ZM (-41%)
$ZM is 85% YoY rev growth w/ 30% FCF margin ‼
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Payment infrastructure companies are 📈
1️⃣Dwolla (payments API) targets $30b gross payment volume in 2021 up 50% y/y
2️⃣Plaid grew customer count grew 60% y/y in 2020
3️⃣ Marqeta Q1'21 $350m net rev run rate up 122% y/y
4️⃣ Stripe $7.4b rev '20 up 70% y/y
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$SNOW is now a $72b company
Put into perspective
- Dragoneer invested at $12.4b in Feb '20 (5.8x in 7 months)
- 4th largest valuation among all high growth SaaS with the 18th highest ARRR
- Atlassian is ~$40b on$1.7b ARRR
- Zoom is $115b on $2.6b ARR growing 235% YoY
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Tiger Global's deal pace is insane 😲
Avg 20 deals per month or ~2 deals/week...
"In the first three months of this year, the 100-person New York firm funded more than 60 companies worldwide, according to research firm PitchBook, averaging more than four deals per week."
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We need S-1 Teardowns of Protocols
A clear and simple explanation of:
- What does the protocol do?
- The founding story
- Customer quotes (crypto version of
@TegusHQ
)
- Market Opportunity
- Key Fundamentals
- Business Model
- Value Accrual for Token Holders
- Competitive
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@sarahtavel
That's really interesting. To your point this WSJ article says "half of Calm’s users use it primarily as a sleep app rather than a meditation app"
Looking at the two, Calm has a ton more resources on sleep (e.g stories) than Headspace which are more generic meditation sessions
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🙏🏼Top 5 SaaS tools we can't live without in 2020🙏🏼
1️⃣
@Logrocket
: user session replay & debugging
2️⃣
@NotionHQ
: project & note management
3️⃣
@Loom
: record videos
4️⃣
@Retool
: edit data & internal tools
5️⃣
@Figma
: prototype & design
👉
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Datadog dropped its S-1 and biz is🔥
Here's how Datadog compares to its competitors
📈 82% Growth Rate (
#1
)
💪146% Net Dollar Retention (
#1
)
👏9 Month Payback Period (
#1
)
💰-2.6% LTM FCF % (
#2
)
🤟Assuming 15x EV/NTM ARR ~ $7.7b EV
See more at
Datadog:
$330m+ ARR
82% growth rate (woah)
146% net revenue retention
40 $1m+ customers
~600 $100k customers
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Inner Peace =
1. Meditating 10-20 min/day 🧘♂️
2. Exercising 20 min/day ⛹️♀️
3. Getting enough sleep 😴
4. Gratitude 🙏
5. Healthy Diet 🥗
What promotes inner peace for you?
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So... Snowflake's $SNOW cost and performance is on-par with Google Cloud BigQuery and AWS Redshift?
😲
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Teladoc and telemedicine 📈
1️⃣$289m revenue with 90% organic YoY growth
2️⃣2.8 million virtual visits up 3x YoY
3️⃣Hypertension, back pain, anxiety, and depression make up 50% of visit volume up from 30% a year ago
👉Telemedicine is here to stay
h/t
@chriszeoli
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Twilio trades consistently below High Growth SaaS multiples despite growing 50% at $1.8B revenue run rate
👉Crazy to think at one point it traded for 8x ARRR and now its 30x 📈
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Great slide from
@BatteryVentures
on how infra markets are still early.
A conclusion you can make is wow Twilio is already 20% penetrated.
But # of developers are growing a ton and the actual adoption % is probably still <10% among devs
Beware of TAM when picking ideas! Figma founder Dylan Field (
@zoink
) looked at US labor stats and it suggested there were only 100K designers. This number turned out to be wrong. Dylan also noticed the top startups always had great design, so they picked the right growing market.
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Thankful for the
@publiccomps
team and all the amazing work over the last 2 years🙏🏼
Today is
@Chowybear
's last day with us as he'll be joining the awesome folks at
@whalerock
🐳
Incredibly grateful for him as Public Comps wouldn't have happened without him. Welcome to Boston 😎
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$TWLO is the 4th fastest growing SaaS 🔥
📈 ~$1.2b Run Rate Revenue with 75% YoY growth
🤷♂️Stock price is down 50% last 3 months and down 8% after beating growth expectations 👇
🔨132% Net Dollar Retention
🤨Lowest SaaS valn at 6x EV/NTM ARR
👉
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4/ Note that Calm continues to grow headcount whereas Headspace is still about the same where it started in late 2018. Perhaps raising too much too early hurt Headspace ability to focus.
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The 💵 slide on why Zoom + Five9
1) Grow TAM from $62b -> $86B: Zoom was sending Phone customers to Five9, inContact, Talkdesk, etc but ZM can now capture the ACV
2) Five9 is a beast. $500m+ ARR growing 45% y/y with amazing enterprises like Chik Fil A, IBM, Chime.
$ZM $FIVN
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Zoom trades now for 45x EV/NTM revenue whereas the median multiple for high growth SaaS is 26.3x
But when looking at the rule of 40 which takes into account profitability, Zoom's valuation isn't crazy.
Source:
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My favorite quote this year:
“Don’t let others do the thinking for you”
Applies to investing and life
0
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💪SaaS companies that were hit least hard by COVID-19?
WFH SaaS products that can be bought self-service like $ZM, $WORK, $ADBE, $DOCU, $TEAM
Most of them are also pretty profitable except Docusign.
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My co-founder did an incredible benchmark of Snowflake ❄️
#3
fastest growing public SaaS company
#2
highest net dollar retention
❄️ Snowflake dropped its S-1. This company is on 🔥
💸 Best in class Net Dollar Retention at 158%
📈 Best in class revenue growth at 121%
⚖️ Growing efficiently with 62% Rule of 40 (Op In)
This is what quality looks like 💯
viz via
@publiccomps
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Microsoft solved the Innovator's Dilemma
1/ Slack was a threat so $MSFT launches Teams and bundles it for free to commercial users -- today Teams has 115m DAU (Slack last reported 12m DAU Oct '19) and Teams surpassed Slack in user numbers 2.5 years in.
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Snowflake pricing at $110 at 277m shares implies ~ $30.5b market cap at IPO
Given the interest, I wouldn't be surprised if Snowflake closes at ~$50b on the first day of trading.
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💸High growth SaaS companies cash positions💸
💬Twilio $TWLO has the most net cash (total cash - total debt)
💻Alteryx $AYX only has $88m after accounting for senior convertible notes (though they aren't due for many years)
👉
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Hims & Hers 👨⚕️👩⚕️
👨⚕️Started in 2017 target hair loss & sexual wellness
👉Expanded to anxiety/depression, skin, primary care
💰 ~$144m rev run rate 80% YoY growth
🔥 -83% net income % '19 proj. -15% in 2020
💪 Going public via SPAC w/ target of $1.6b
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🤖 UiPath went public today at ~$34B 🤖
1️⃣ 4th highest valuation: EV/ARR is 43x
2️⃣ 5th fastest growth: $580m ARR growing 65% y/y
3️⃣ 2nd highest NDR at 145%
4️⃣ 5th highest rule of 40 at 85%. 4% LTM FCF 💵
5️⃣ 6th lowest payback period at 1.5 years
👉
$PATH
0
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@jasonlk
Actually, looks like DD raised $92m (net of secondary purchases) and has $63m of cash and restricted cash on its balance sheet.
Which means DD spent ~$30m cash to get to $330m ARR 🤯. $1 for $10m in ARR probably makes Datadog one of the most capital-efficient company ever
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🔥 take on $ZM
With $4B, Zoom should buy
@FrontApp
@Superhuman
or some popular email client vs building one
Need to compete against Outlook having Teams/Skype and Gmail having Hangouts as video conference defaults.
@Calendly
would also be a great insertion into scheduling
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47
Zoom still has a lot of room to run 🏃♂️
15% of Global 2000 spend >$100k with Zoom.
👉 That means 85% of Global 2000 can still be $100k+ customers where large enterprise agreements aren't yet in place 🤩
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3/ With the focus, it may have helped Calm win the Apple App of the Year award which helped a ton with marketing in 2017 (note that's when according to Sensetower Calm overtook Headspace).
"“Since winning App of the Year, we seem to have a much higher growth rate than they do"
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❄️ Snowflake is such an outlier❄️
According to
@publiccomps
, Snowflake's
- Rule of 40 = 93% (Revenue Growth % + LTM FCF %)
- EV/Run Rate Revenue = 136.1x
👉 Yet $SNOW trades WAY above the expected EV/ARRR
👀
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Crowdstrike replacing competitors 👀
👉"Deployed as a single solution and removed multiple legacy and next-gen technologies, including Microsoft, SentinelOne, Cylance, Sophos, Symantec, McAfee, and Trend Micro"
👉 "McAfee and SentinelOne had to be removed from the environment"
0
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Why didn't Zoom buy Slack?
- Salesforce is only ~2x the marketcap of Zoom
- Slack + Zoom Video Conferencing/Phones would've been a highly attractive package at $30/month/license
- Chat users are initiating Zoom meetings in Slack
$ZM $WORK $CRM
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Databricks 🧱 investing more heavily into R&D vs S&M compared to Snowflake ❄️
🧱Databricks - Of 2K employees, 42% engineering and 19% sales
❄️Snowflake - Of 3K employees, 23% engineering and 38% sales
👉Lead to more product velocity for Databricks over time?
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46
Vimeo is $75m revenue growing 44% and profitable and raised $150m.
Instead of directly compete with YouTube on consumer focused on providing tools for enterprises like Amazon, Starbucks to create manage and share videos.
So much room for video 🚀
3
1
42
Best investors have humility.
It’s like what Ted Lasso said: don’t judge, be curious.
Thinking one knows everything and having arrogance makes it impossible to see the present clearly.
And impossible to be open to new ideas where $ are made.
2
2
44
Here's the bull case on Zoom 🚀
1/ At $3.1b ARR 366% y/y, Zoom is THE fastest growing SaaS company historically and currently
👉 Growth is COVID driven so the question is if growth will persist post-pandemic and how much MSFT Teams will be an impact
2
5
42
Friend asked what tools to use to get started with a startup and to raise.
Here's what I recommended:
1️⃣ Incorporate with
@stripe
atlas
2️⃣Open a bank with
@BankMercury
3️⃣Raise using
@ycombinator
SAFE note
4️⃣Send docs using
@DocuSign
5️⃣Use
@cartainc
to manage cap table
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