John Roberts
@john_actuary
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Actuary for far too many years. Welsh, but now live in the spiritual home of the Wurzels out west. Don’t think I’ve got the accent yet. Like zider though...
Joined April 2019
So with the news this morning that the earnings growth announced today means the state pension (SP) will very likely increase by another 8.5% next year, it's time to set out once again why the SP triple lock (TL) is such a bad idea. 1/
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I would digest and comment on the Hallett report, but I’m a little sidetracked at the moment…. #Ashes2025
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Keyless car theft devices used by criminals sell for £20k online When I bought my VW a year ago I asked the dealer to deactivate the keyless function. Why have a feature where the risks far outweigh any possible benefits?
bbc.com
It is not illegal currently to own the gadgets but the government has promised to ban them.
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Still interested in age standardised mortality trends? The latest CMI update shows 2025 still trending nicely, now 1.6% of a full year's mortality better than 2024, so barring a sudden very bad flu season, it should end the year comfortably at a new low. Good news!
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Just a reminder for anyone hitting age 66 from 6th April next year that your state pension will be delayed by a number of months, how many depends on your birthday. Reach 66 from 6th March 27? Then (like me) you'll get your state pension from age 67.
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A reminder when Rachel is looking for some billions, fuel duty has not risen since 2011, and was reduced by 5p in 2022 because of high fuel prices. So petrol is historically at its lowest real cost for 15 years. A 7.5p increase would still leave it at just 80% of Jan 10 prices.
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Remembering the 116 children (of around my age) and 28 adults who lost their lives at this time in the morning in one of the most unimaginable tragedies to hit Wales. Never forgotten.
59 years ago we witnessed one of the bleakest days in our history. We will never forget those who lost their lives in the Aberfan disaster, most of them children. The strength shown by the community who faced the unimaginable continues to be a shining example to us all.
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Interesting prioritisation given here. Snapchat clearly more important than the banking system!
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Finally, age-standardised mortality is a standard methodology for demographers etc of adjusting for population sizes, and allows for our ageing population, and give a better representation of underlying mortality than just looking at death counts. 5/5
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Is this year's trend due to fewer deaths because the pandemic claimed the lives of a lot more susceptible people? I find it hard to argue that the improvement of 2025 over 2024 is due to that - I would expect any such effect will be lessening as the years progress. 4/
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There is a cause for concern though. Mortality so far in 2025 is at or near a record low for many age groups, but males aged 45-64 are a notable exception. While their mortality has reduced since the COVID-19 pandemic, it remains higher than in any year from 2011 to 2019. 3/
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Remember 2019 was itself an unusually low year, and was only matched last year, after the "COVID years" in between. But a clear step down this year is a very encouraging sign. Note these figures are all cause mortality, ie all deaths. 2/
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Good news for anyone still interested in mortality trends. The quarterly update from CMI shows age-standardised mortality continuing at its lowest ever level. If the trend continues 2025 will end the year around 2% lower than 2024, (which was broadly in line with 2019). 1/
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A further change that reflects the rapid increase in longevity since the SPA was fixed at 65 a lifetime ago (and thus the enormous increase in SP cost) is described as a “steal”. Nope, it’s a very sensible change. (PS. I’m affected, being one of the first to have to wait to 67. )
The Great Pension Steal will cost 66-year-olds up to £12,849 in lost pension when pension age increases from 6 April and the losses don't stop there https://t.co/iJfhpbEzbK Don't blame Labour, the timetable was set by George Osborne in the Pensions Act 2014 which brought forward
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Isn’t Meta AI on Facebook utterly laughable? I don’t think a day goes by without seeing something as ludicrously wrong as this. (Younger followers may need to womble down to Wimbledon Common to get the reference.)
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Best and simplest chart I've seen on the increasing cost of the triple lock increases on state pensions. Especially since 2020. If the orange line is the rising cost of living, and the dark blue line is the rising earnings of those who have to pay for the state pension, then
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Does anyone else fear that not only will mortality and morbidity increase, but that the figures will be suppressed or manipulated to hide the true picture?
We are going to see dramatic changes in the rates of many chronic diseases before @POTUS leaves office.
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Great to see our bird feeders being so popular. Last year the peanuts were completely ignored, but atm they are being eaten up at a rapid rate.Hoping the tits might tell their mates and we get some avian variety too.
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RFK Jr: "Gardasil is probably the single worst mass vaccine that we've ever seen The reality It's SO GOOD that it's on the way to eliminating cervical cancer in countries from Sweden to Australia Yes you read that right - ELIMINATE CERVICAL CANCER Don't listen to RFK Jr
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Blimey, my @AskNationwide home insurance (buildings and contents) renewal quote is up 80% on 2 years ago. Found a policy with identical cover with @AvivaUK for the same price I was paying two years ago. Goodbye Nationwide!
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