John Homenuk
@jhomenuk
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Weather forecaster, storm chaser, photographer. Drinker of exceptionally large amounts of coffee. Owner: @empirewx, Words: @nymetrowx
NYC/MSP
Joined March 2009
This is absolutely disgusting. It’s not reporting and it’s not journalism, either. This man is in a state of shock after finding out that his wife was aboard a plane that crashed, and you’re asking him to show their last text message together for the cameras.
🚨 JUST IN: A man waiting at Reagan National Airport says he was there waiting for his wife, who was on board the doomed plane “I'm just praying that someone is pulling her out of the river right now.” This is absolutely heartbreaking.
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It has been a quiet winter so far in the N Plains, Midwest and Ohio Valley but I suspect that is about to change. Retrograding ridging in the high latitudes will aid in the development of a thermal gradient across the Northern 1/3, encouraging winter storm chances Feb 5-20.
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Let them cook
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Posted an update on the snowfall forecast for NYC on TikTok, head there to see the latest!
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Thank you, @dmgerbino. I feel strongly that the future of meteorology communication lies in transparency and visualization - box and whisker plots over snowfall maps are just one example!
Check out this excellent data visualization. @jhomenuk knows how to crush it.
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First crack at snowfall ranges for NYC. I went with 3 to 6 as the most likely range, but higher amounts can’t be ruled out especially as confidence in the location of deformation banding increases.
NEW: A winter storm will impact NYC on Sunday, with 3 to 6 inches of snowfall expected. Locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out in heavier snowfall bands. Travel impacts are likely, especially during the afternoon hours. Details and graphic deck: https://t.co/okWJyEcnkj
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❄️👀
As this period draws closer, confidence continues to increase in an outbreak of arctic air and winter weather chances along the East Coast. Ensemble guidance continues to specifically focus on January 18-23, but the details will take a few more days to iron out.
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Mood
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Pretty wild to see the ECMWF EPS showing moderate probabilities of >1” snowfall across such a large swath of the Southeast and Eastern US over the next 10 days. This is a highly anomalous pattern with deep cold and the potential for snow much further south than usual!
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By early February, the large Western NHEM ridge is forecast to retrograde towards the Aleutian Islands. This fits well within the Pacific Ridge regime, supporting troughing in the Pacific NW, a positive NAO, and a tendency for more ridging in the South and Eastern US over time.
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As this period draws closer, confidence continues to increase in an outbreak of arctic air and winter weather chances along the East Coast. Ensemble guidance continues to specifically focus on January 18-23, but the details will take a few more days to iron out.
Confidence is increasing in one or more threats for winter weather in the Eastern US with the period extending from Jan 18-23 or so. Global ensembles & AI guidance are strongly hinting at several waves traversing an arctic front/thermal gradient with plentiful moisture.
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Dreams do come true
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For additional context, the EPS suggests that a huge portion of the country has high probability of seeing temperatures more than 20° F (!) colder than normal.
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It’s relatively rare to see anomalies this intense at this range on a 50+ member ensemble. This is some serious cold heading into the United States in mid-January, straight from Siberia.
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