Jamil Hreich
@jamhre
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Markets. Risk. Humanity. History. ex-SDE/SDM turned trader. An aspiring flaneur looking for optionality. "Freedom is not free".
Canada, Lebanon
Joined November 2010
I was writing about spheres of influence and the Monroe Doctrine drivers of the #gold rally a year ago, before most analysts even understood them. Find the article over there and subscribe, over there, because I will not post any more article on this platform due to deboosting.
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With $SPY now close to retracing Tuesday’s ~-2% drop, is it smooth sailing to a new ATH (SPY 700+) or will it fill yesterday’s gap (~685) first? Next Monday's (26Jan) SPY 685 puts offer an attractive risk/reward here (I want them cheaper before I buy).
Got some 23Jan $SPY 670 puts for $0.37. There is just too much going on it's crazy to not have some insurance!
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Out at an avg price of $0.97. Worked well. Will roll them into next week's.
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Got some 23Jan $SPY 670 puts for $0.37. There is just too much going on it's crazy to not have some insurance!
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And small caps $IWM (down 1.25%) continue to outperform large caps $SPY (down 2.10%). Getting more interesting @mikeharrisNY eh?
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Got of this $SOXD.TO trade for a scratch. Semis - surprisingly - are doing relatively well. Oh well.
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With #SPX futures down ~1%, I checked how semis (e.g. $SMH) typically open on similar days. On average, $SMH opens lower as well - ~1.66x the move in $SPY (5-yr history). That implies a -3x inverse ETF like $SOXS would open at ~5x $SPY ’s move. With U.S. markets closed, this
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Wise reminder from someone with skin in the game. Possibly very timely as well!
🚨 Breaking! Avoid rationalizing the irrational. Even if it's rational, you don't have all the information. Follow price, and if you've already made enough, relax and watch the show. Use simple indicators and risk management. Complex schemes like derivative synthetics are traps.
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Why was this error made? Simple. It's called confirmation bias. Accounts like the one below should stop posting about Iran. They are not credible and are making things worse. Not defending the regime, but when tons of fake news is being spread, everything becomes questionable.
Correction: Image used is not of Iran protests, community note is accurate. Apologies for the error, we’re looking into why it was made, as we could have easily used any image or footage from the Iran protests, there’s plenty there. Post not deleted as story still stands, and
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Probability can be so unintuitive even when the math is so simple
The "paradox" is that the more low-probability details one adds to gender=boy, the bigger the sample space and the probability of a girl converges to --> ½. https://t.co/V42hXfBzxR
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Used to watch foodies cook and create original recipes. It was fun. Now it’s just people chewing on camera, eyes closed, humming like they unlocked a rare emotion. Congrats on eating.
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Trader A: Our Sharpe is 1 (but vol is 30%) Trader B: Our Sharpe is 1 (but vol is 40%) Trader C: My Sharpe is 1 (but vol is 10%) A and B in a podcast: C underperforms the market. Lesson: A and B are the types to avoid.
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When did the word "journey" become a buzzword? it is everywhere, even in job titles like journey transformation architect, journey alignment director, and chief journey officer!
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Am I supposed to be impressed by the life of an actor?
You may not know that Keanu Reeves was abandoned by his father at 3 years old and grew up with 3 different stepfathers. He is dyslexic. His dream of becoming a hockey player was shattered by a serious accident. His daughter died at birth. His wife died in a car accident. He has
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