Idrees Kahloon
@imkahloon
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Washington bureau chief @TheEconomist . Views my own.
Washington, DC
Joined October 2012
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Mark Kelly has a 9-point edge in approval rating over Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona, per
@DataProgress
poll.
Crosstabs a lot more stark:
Among Democrats, the Kelly advantage is 53 (!) points. Among Republicans, though, it's Sinema by 33.
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I could stare at this gif showing the geographical sorting of college-educated Americans all day:
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It’s remarkable how many people are willing to try to ditch standardized exams when they’re probably the hardest things for privileged students to fake.
"the predictive power of the SAT holds even when researchers control for socioeconomic status...it is remarkably difficult to increase an individual’s SAT score...high SAT scores are generally difficult to acquire by any means other than high ability"
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This single policy would put a huge dent into America's high child-poverty rate, currently exacerbated by the covid-19 epidemic.
NEW: Joe Biden expected to include major expansion of child tax credit in imminent relief proposal, per 3 ppl
Biden previously backed $3,600/yr per kid under 6, $3K/yr per kid 6-17.
Aiming for big dent in child poverty
Details, final call not reached
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Some personal news from me! Starting in January, I'll be very happily starting a new role as The Economist's Washington correspondent.
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My piece on the college-admissions scam. Crazy as the scandal is, seat-buying at elite Americans universities for the wealthy has long been legal and widespread—and should be just as outrageous.
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In this week's New Yorker, I wrote about the provocative theory that economists are to blame for progressives not getting what they want anymore.
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That Columbia is dropping standardized tests before it drops legacy admissions tells you all you need you know.
The policy will make it even easier for mediocre rich children to get in to an elite school--and even harder for talented, poor kids.
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Carlos Curbelo, a rare moderate Republican from Florida who introduced carbon-tax legislation, has lost. The Republicans who lose will be more moderate than the ones who keep their seats—possibly making legislating harder.
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In this week's
@NewYorker
, I wrote about a subject I've thought a lot about over the years—why men appear to be backsliding in so many ways.
Prompted by the thoughtful new book by
@RichardvReeves
.
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Always check your scheduled tweets when news breaks.
Being the greatest country on earth is not just about our incredible economy & our strong military; it's about the values we project out into the world. I believe in America, and American goodness.
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New study from the Penn-Wharton Budget Model estimates that Biden's student-loan action will cost $519 billion. Depending on how the future income-driven repayment program is structured, the total cost of the plan could be $1 trillion.
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this report from the nyt looks incredibly alarming. it’s incredibly misleading.
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Of all the things I did this week, the most important was explaining what on Earth the Waffle House Index was.
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One of the few (mostly) positive social trends I’ve written about: The racial gap in life expectancy has declined substantially in the last 20 years.
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"Medicare for all" is a great slogan for winning elections. But it will be extremely hard to turn into workable policy. My piece this week.
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If primaries were decided by the quality and originality of ideas, Elizabeth Warren would be the front-runner. My piece this week:
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From
@ashishkjha
: "We should expect, without further action, that as the new strain takes hold, we will see an additional 10 million infections in the U.S. between now and end of February and during that time, we could easily see an additional 100,000 to 150,000 deaths."
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American refugee admissions are way down this year. Muslim refugees dropped 85%—and Syrians are down 99.3%. My story this week.
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Labour lost everywhere, but did especially badly in places where the Brexit Party chose to run. For every additional point they won, Labour lost 0.65 points.
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Our cover this week is on the rise of nationalist conservatism.
Nationalists across borders are making common cause against their common enemies: migration, globalism, wokeness.
You should take their challenge to international liberalism very seriously.
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Cory Booker releases a blistering statement, at least for this primary, on Joe Biden's criminal-justice plan: "The proud architect of a failed system is not the right person to fix it."
(Also he says that legalizing marijuana is a litmus test for comprehensive reform.)
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Why I think "cultural appropriation" has worn out its usefulness as a term
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In time for July 4th, our cover this week sounds the alarm over the growing threat to American democracy—the Republican-led efforts to change election laws on administration and certification. There is a greater, not smaller, risk now of democratic crisis.
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Our cover story this week is on the cultural revolution in left-leaning America and how far it has come.
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Can you also imagine if Raffensperger (or other Republican secretaries of state) were of the fantasist wing of the party, willing to go along with the attempt to “find” 12,000 votes? The line between where we are now and a full-blown constitutional crisis is really thin.
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My story on how the old alma mater's admissions policies need revising.
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My piece on what history can and cannot teach us about the current unrest.
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Opioids killed nearly 50,000 people in America last year. But the epidemic shows no signs of abating. Epidemic models suggest that it might continue raging for the next five to ten years. My briefing this week:
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Our longread on why Ron DeSantis is a longshot to be the Republican nominee. On our cover this week.
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Many American students soon start school virtually. Everything we know about previous educational disruptions suggests that achievement will decline and inequality will increase. My piece this week:
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The odd thing about homelessness: it's declining nationally, but increasing in big cities. My article looks at the underlying problem, rising housing costs, and examines some pervasive, pernicious myths about homelessness.
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My piece on the sad moment of America passing 100,000 deaths due to coronavirus is on the cover this week:
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I reviewed Thomas Piketty’s coming book, Capital and Ideology, in this week’s New Yorker:
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San Francisco's next mayor has only a year to tackle two tough problems: housing is becoming astronomically expensive, and homelessness appears to be getting worse. My piece this week.
(Also check out our chart.)
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The Republican Party resembles the GOP of one century ago--reluctant to involve itself in foreign conflicts while agitating for restricted immigration and protectionism. My article on how it went from isolationism to internationalism and back again.
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I look at how covid-19 is widening the divisions in an already unequal America--in terms both of who becomes sick and who bears the biggest economic brunt of the crisis.
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How did pollsters do in France yesterday? Remarkably well. Error was less than 1%. Read our post:
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How the Democrats won the House, and what they'll do with their majority. From
@jonfasman
and me on the cover this week.
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In a long piece for this week's Economist, I look at why opportunities and outcomes for black and white America remain so far apart since the civil-rights era—and what can be done to actually improve them.
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I looked at a program that delivered stunning results in improving persistence in community colleges. It almost doubles graduation rates at not too much cost and has been validated repeatedly by randomized control trials. More people should know it.
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Hillary Clinton's chances of the presidency are now dropping.
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Every day I am thankful that I get to work with James Bennet. But I only get to do that because of a sad and incorrect decision the New York Times made in throwing him over in 2020. His account of what happened and why is essential reading.
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Green New Deal, Medicare for All, abolishing ICE? None of it happens if Democrats fail to capture the Senate—and right now that looks unlikely. My piece this week.
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My piece on the one encouraging story in American education—a rising high-school graduation rate—and why it seems inflated.
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My diary on the jarring experience of going from civil-rights monuments in Alabama to those for the Confederacy.
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New York City is the most contentious site of the nationwide debate over gifted education and segregation. That is because the alternative—regular education in a neighborhood school—looks so unpalatable to parents. My piece:
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My piece on new evidence on evictions, and whether they're better thought of as symptoms rather than triggers of poverty.
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My piece on the unusual factional politics within thriving, liberal-run cities.
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obviously even a tiny share of students (or any Americans) going hungry is an awful thing, and we should do more to end that (like maybe ramping up the food stamps program and eliminating work requirements on it), but we don’t gain anything by giving misleading statistics
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What's really sobering is realizing you've only read about a handful of these mass shootings
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In this week's New Yorker, I have an essay out on immigration on why the economics of it are (fairly) straightforward, but the politics and morality are a lot murkier.
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Finally, we have a rigorous study of what work requirements on Medicaid did in Arkansas. They were exactly as feared: Huge coverage losses for poor people without increases in employment.
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This from
@gelliottmorris
is excellent. Empirically rigorous journalism that tells us something very important about post-covid unemployment policy.
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I dislike minoritarian rule more than anyone, but this analysis is horrendous. The Senate race in California, a really big state, was between two Democrats. Excluding it, Democrats won the 2018 "Senate popular vote" by 55% and will get 65% of the seats.
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How to think about Biden’s first 100 days in office—our assessment
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For what it's worth, right now black Democratic primary voters are much more likely to say Biden is their preferred candidate over Harris. I wonder if that will change much after that testy exchange.
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This NYT column takes issue with The Economist's recent cover on the illiberal left I helped write. Contra the dismissive assertion that these worries are the result of mid-life crises, I can tell you that I am 26—so am not sure about the psychoanalysis.
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My piece on “the least dignified and most dispiriting debate of the modern era”
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“Right now, Democrats still retain a monopoly on expertise and evidence-based policy. They should not relinquish it easily.”
Exactly right
Democrats in 2020 are at risk of turning into Republicans in 2016 (minus the racism)
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Our analysis of the unprecedented second impeachment of Donald Trump
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Elizabeth Warren’s plan to pay for Medicare for All mars her reputation as a rigorous policy-maker.
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A spectre haunts Britain. Voters aged 18-24 are pretty split on merits of capitalism: 38% think force for good, 32% for ill. Wow.
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Big fiscal stimulus without actual suppression of the virus is a sisyphean undertaking. My piece this week:
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My story on how Seattle is coping with its growth better than most cities. But it still has a lot to do.
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Despite their years of service to Donald Trump, Mike Pence and Chris Christie are going to run as Trump alternatives. That will be hard for the Republican base to stomach.
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Exit polls apparently have Trump with 55% of the white vote—less than Romney’s 59% in 2012.
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Drive-through testing was critical to keeping South Korea's covid-19 outbreak relatively contained.
Robert Redfield, CDC Director, said there are no plans to set up drive through
#COVID19
test centres because "We're tryinjg to maintain the relationship between individuals and their healthcare providers."
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the survey isn’t representative of american college students. it’s of new york area community colleges—which means a wildly unrepresentative sample.
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how does this help the cause
1) In a scene that played out several times Monday, a Black Lives Matter protest that began in Columbia Heights confronted White diners outside D.C. restaurants, chanting “White silence is violence!” and demanding White diners show their solidarity.
#DCProtests
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The Economist is hiring two paid fellows starting in July. We want to hire emerging reporters for six months of experience as full-fledged staff writers.
There's an application guide included, but I am happy to personally answer any questions. DM's open.
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I hope you find someone who loves you as much as The Economist loves eating insects.
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This week
@gelliottmorris
and I look at the other midterms—state legislative elections and governors' races—and try our hand at a little predictive modeling.
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This week, I moonlit our Lex column on Glenn Youngkin, who is trying to bind together the Republican Party with affability rather than anger
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If you are craving a somber long read on the state of democracy in America on July 4th, consider my cover piece this week on the Arizona audit and the state of the GOP. Since Trump's loss, the chance of a constitutional crisis seems to have increased.
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Increasingly, applications to teach at universities, or get tenure or get scientific grants requires filing a diversity statement. My piece this week looks at the debate over whether these are harmless essay prompts or a possible political litmus test.
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thanks
@Noahpinion
for sharing my piece on this!
A bit of good news: The white-black life expectancy gap in America has shrunk significantly, and continues to trend downward.
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This week, I looked at explaining what actually went wrong in Baltimore after Freddie Gray's death. It's complicated. Murder exploded, but so did opioid deaths and political turbulence.
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My piece this week on what has happened to HHS under Donald Trump. The short answer: very little on reducing drugs prices, but a lot to upend the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid.
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My note on the bad consequences of the president’s refusal to concede: a needlessly shortened transition at a critical moment and how effective it has already been in sowing doubt about electoral legitimacy.
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New from me: A long read on how social mobility became sluggish in America, and whether or not Joe Biden's Build Back Better agenda can revive it.
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Oklahoma's low teacher pay and big budget cuts are pushing schools toward failure. My story:
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If someone can explain "traveler's checks" to me, please do!
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I went to Idaho to find out why voters in the deeply Republican state might vote to expand Medicaid—a pillar of Obamacare—in the coming midterms.
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Macron leads Le Pen as much as Conservative leads Labour in UK. How many people are arguing Corbyn will be next PM because you never know?
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It’s really possible to disagree with two kinds of illiberalism at once, I promise.
Texas passes a law deputizing citizens to sue people for constitutionally protected activity.
The economist: the libs want to steal your rights!!
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The other sort of identity politics—revolving around whiteness—dominate the Republican Party. My piece this week.
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My piece on the Trump administration's proposed remaking of the Clean Power Plan.
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Voters in three deeply Republican states shocked everyone in November by approving Medicaid expansion through popular referendum. State legislators in Utah are now trying to water down that mandate:
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My thoughts on last night's debate: Booker and Castro excelled, Warren did well, and Beto missed his chance to catch fire again.
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MoviePass reminds me of those schemes cooked up by Mr. Peanutbutter and Todd on BoJack, only it's real life and it's losing $40 million a month.
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"hardly a bastion of left-wing radicalism" is not the worst thing i have been called. possible new twitter bio even
@JohnCassidy
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Arkansas became the first state to put work requirements on Medicaid in June. The initial results are concerning: 18,000 people lost their insurance in six months. My report from Little Rock:
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In this week's New Yorker, I wrote about trust and why economists have a rosier view of it than other social scientists seem to
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Immense thanks to
@NatPress
for their award on a recent piece on how we can measure poverty growing in near real-time as Congress stalls on a stimulus.
3/5 Kahloon won for “Measuring Poverty: And the poor get poorer.” His piece wove together a panoply of data to show how the $1,200 federal stimulus checks made a dent in American
#poverty
at the beginning of the pandemic – but how such aid soon ran out.
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My briefing on the cascading crises facing Biden—covid, the economy, race, Trumpism—and what he can actually hope to achieve is on our cover this week.
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This is one of those spit-your-coffee-out abstracts. 43% of white admits to Harvard receive some sort of admissions boost. These are so big that only 25% would be admitted without.
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