When a company is knowingly harming our children to make a little extra money, we have to stand up and do what is right.
As a concerned father and citizen, I am working with a serious lawyer for a serious issue.
Today, I filed an activist letter with Alex Spiro against
Loving this quote from Bezos final letter:
"If you want to be successful in business (in life, actually), you have to create more than you consume. Your goal should be to create value for everyone you interact with.”
Winter is now here for venture capital – especially those heavily focused on Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) models where customer acquisition costs are high and there is little brand equity. If you have to continually spend to drive repeat buy, you don’t have real brand equity. (1/10)
I spent two decades training, hiring and evaluating hundreds of people for investment and entrepreneurial roles. I found 3 types of people to study: “Good”, “Dangerous” and “Nuisance”. Thanks to
@patrick_oshag
@mjmauboussin
@tseides
for our discussions over the years: (1/10)
@kimbal
musk is launching an important (and great!) cookbook next week about the role of farm-to-table cooking with community, happiness and humanity.
It’s easy to think that technology alone might solve our current meta-crisis of human health, mental health and planetary
There is not enough conversation about how humans can strengthen our immune systems and improve our anti-fragility through nutrition and better lifestyle choices. COVID-19 and other threats to the human race appear to be increasing in frequency.
Do not conflate what is good for cows with what is good for human health. Many of the new “plant-based” franken-foods are convincing consumers that their products are healthy. At HumanCo, we only use real, simple ingredients.
Just like investing and decision making, small advantages compound over time. Given these are the 3 most dominant players of all time, it is quite a lesson in probabilities.
Once the huge downside beta is realized, all the quants recalibrate the models and the sizing of all these positions has to be shrunk. Positive momentum no longer has a good trailing Sharpe ratio. And thus the self-reinforcing unwind cycle begins.
It’s hard to find gold in the street when everyone’s looking and using the same map: a thought piece on the challenges of value investing and why it keeps failing.
With summarized points in thread. (1/)
@patrick_oshag
@tseides
@mjmauboussin
“Good” people have extreme optionality and huge positive convexity with a long tail. These are the most asymmetric investments you can make in life. If you discover these people, protect and nurture them like family. (10/10)
Topic of Seed Oils doesn’t have to be contentious…there are many simple reasons to avoid them.
We can debate the Omega ratios, the rancidity issues and the inflammatory causality - however, when you see how it’s bleached, deodorized and chemically processed, it’s literally
This investment lesson has saved me more money than any other over 25 years:
Always ask, “Will I feel lucky if I am right and stupid if I am wrong?” If the answer is YES, then don’t get involved.
It's almost four weeks since the horrific terrorist attack on
#Israel
. A lot has happened, the public debate has become heated and confused. Find thoughts from Vice-Chancellor Robert
#Habeck
in the video, putting the events in context. 📣With English, Hebrew and Arabic subtitles.
@Post_Market
It’s been absurd. People are using tech frameworks for food not realizing they have vastly different scaling and risk profiles. Oh…and a lot of this newer plant-based frankenfood is both unhealthy and not that tasty.
Hu Chocolate (pronounced “hue” as in human) is now in Walmart- the biggest retailer in the country!
Thanks to everyone who helped us get here and provide healthier snack options for all Americans. We love you! 👊🏼🙏🏼
People often ask in disbelief why I chose cleaning up the food system as my life’s purpose despite it being a long, improbable battle.
1) progress cannot be made by only looking at the “odds” - only the bold, big bets can significantly advance humanity.
2) I didn’t choose
This is some of the most vicious oscillations I have ever seen driven by profound risk-reductions, unwinding of momentum and the popping of many bubbles that were based on themes rather than fundamentals.
We’ve been duped for decades about food:
Turns out sugar isn’t benign. It’s the real poison. Fats aren’t actually bad. They are essential. Carbs aren’t terrible. They are necessary.
We’ve been lied to about plastics. Vaccines. GMOs. The list goes on.
What is the consequence?
A lot of people are casting hatred toward us right now, but no smart historian or investor would bet against us in any field that requires grit, perseverance and hope - and that includes surviving.
@patrick_oshag
If you want to bring out the best in people: be a secure coach, not an insecure boss. Questions on leadership were asked with
@KatColeATL
on our
@joinClubhouse
Entrepreneur discussion. We use the below image to encourage vulnerability, humility and empathy in good leaders.
Fascinating chart here on human behavior: American consumption of products during this crisis (Nielsen data) reveals fascinating Maslow hierarchy-like needs. Note the only category that grew in phase 3! Predictions on what else people will start consuming more of in phase 3??
Best anti-seed oil explanation I've ever heard is from
@humankarp
We can debate the seed oil science all we want, but simply choosing to not want to consume an oil that goes through a 15-step process intuitively makes sense.
Eat God Foods > Human Foods
Applauding
@Sweetgreen
who is the first national fast-casual restaurant to get rid of
#seedoils
and only use EVOO.
@livetruefood
is the only casual restaurant that doesn’t cook with them too. Hoping that we see more of this in all sectors, especially
#CPG
.
@HumanCo
exclusively
True Food Kitchen officially cooking with NO seed oils. Love seeing the progress in removing industrially and ultra-processed ingredients from our food system!
Growing revenue at any cost (without a viable business model) and then raising more money to plug losses and pump up the fragile revenue to further support even more spending has become the hot business model of the last decade (this was once called a Ponzi scheme). (2/10)
As an early pioneer in plant-based ice cream, Coconut Bliss is the gold standard in clean ingredients and sustainability. Today, I am proud to announce that Coconut Bliss will be joining the HumanCo family.
@humancobrands
@CoconutBliss
I can also tell you that the survivors who come out of these very dark periods go on to become the business leaders of many generations to come. Amazon declined more than 95% from its peak into 2001, and survived when all the other copycats did not. (7/10)
11 years ago this week, my family and I opened an improbable restaurant called
@HuKitchen
. “Get back to HUman” was our tagline because we believe people don’t currently live in a way consistent with evolution.
Before we were known for our chocolate, we had a crazy idea for an
@chamath
Ultra-processed cheap food and products are the greatest threat to humanity, and it also drives the mental health epidemic. Until we are willing to pay the true cost of making responsible food, the incentives to keep poisoning people are too high. Let’s fix this!
Many high profile companies are going to have massive down-rounds and many will abruptly close like Brandless. Having invested through 2000-2002 and 2008-2009, and having exhaustively studied the past, I can tell you that liquidity and funding dries up virtually overnight. (6/10)
Apple, like a Phoenix from the ashes, released the first iPod in October, 2001 right after 9/11 and in the heart of the recession when Apple was on the verge of bankruptcy. In very dark business times, survival is paramount. (8/10)
2) Despite advances, humans were sicker than ever before COVID-19. We need to make it easier for humans to live healthier in a time when 90% of our US health care costs are coming from the self-inflicted choices we make. Poor nutrition and lifestyle are the
#1
cause of disease.
My holiday wish: If the entire Twitter community took a year off from shaming for having different beliefs about vaccines, crypto, politics or not being vegan, we could literally figure out time travel with all the saved time and energy. Love to everyone!
Anyone have data on how much inflation Crypto has created? I am hearing consistent commentary from dealers in real-estate, art, etc that their rapid inelastic demand is coming from folks laundering their crypto wins into harder assets…
@patrick_oshag
@morganhousel
@tseides
@patrick_oshag
@GrahamDuncanNYC
This is excellent GD. I once created a life-cycle diagram of investors. This helped me assess where they were on a skills spectrum.
@patrick_oshag
You get to the top of the mountain and find there is nothing to see.
This happened to me several times and I fell into a deep depression for an extended period. It’s 100% true and hard to talk about it without worrying that I sound ungrateful or absurd.
Demons of insecurity,
Thrilled to announce that Scarlett Johansson has become a strategic investor in
@humancobrands
and a Creative Director of Snow Days. Exciting things to come...
I know of no human activity with a greater disconnect between knowledge and frequency of use than eating and nutrition. We eat 3-15x every day and still have so much confusion about what is healthy and what isn’t. And we keep getting sicker.
Winter was inevitable as investors incorrectly extrapolated a handful of unicorns with bad process and good outcomes (e.g. ) and naively thought that “old fashioned businesses” of actually trying to make a profit were obsolete models. (4/10)
Excited to announce that
@humancobrands
and
@CAVUVentures
have joined forces to create a mission-driven SPAC focused on health and wellness. Thanks
@Nasdaq
for our IPO today under ticker: HMCOU.
“Good” traits continued:
- understands difference between Art vs Science.
- High EQ and interpersonal skills
- Ability to resist impulses and delay gratification. No fear in saying “No”
- Disciplined risk-taking in life with evidence of willpower
Continued... (9/10)
“Good” traits I have observed:
- Intellectually honest: willingness to change mind easily
- Likes to engage in deliberate practice
- Practical-minded obsession with possibility and consequence of failure
- Ambition with overachievement and tenacity (grit)
Continued... (7/10)
I was feeling pretty good about my decision to move to Austin from NYC. However, the brochure never mentioned you get scorpions in your kitchen.
#austin
#goodmorning
4)
@nntaleb
I know is fan of improving his own anti-fragility through food and lifestyle. After almost going blind, I had to learn this this the hard way too. While not fully conclusive yet, the evidence is strong that those with chronic diseases are faring worse with COVID-19.
Anyone who uses the “colonialism” or “settler” arguments should be completely dismissed as hypocritical unless they are willing to vacate and return, for free, THEIR OWN current home and land to the original native people that once lived there.
Before this terrible virus hit, we had already seen the glimpses of the approaching winter with fallen angels such as WeWork, Casper, Brandless and Outdoor Voices. (3/10)
“Good” traits continued:
- Competitive with freakish desire to win
- Appetite for self-improvement and deep introspection
- Creates post-mortems as feedback loop to learn from mistakes
- Meets failure with optimism to overcome; true accountability
Continued... (8/10)
If crypto if skyrocketing because those with sanctions are using it to launder money, this is very bearish for its future and the prospects of over-regulation. Be careful what you wish for…
@morganhousel
@patrick_oshag
Recently, I find that the more I try to decipher how current market dynamics correlate to historic financial relationships, the more I value cannabis as an asset class.
In addition to survival, maintaining a robust, dispassionate process and having good dialogue with your partners is the next most important thing. We are witnessing crazy shit, and we need clear heads and a great process to capitalize on once-in-a-generation opportunities. (9/10)
@wolfejosh
I was young, but was actively investing in 1999. Much of what I see today is more silly and few players today actually witnessed 1999. This is a giant ponzi scheme fueled by paper marks, from higher rounds, that reinforce FOMO-driven investors to keep playing.
@RepStefanik
@Penn
So grateful for you Elise as a PENN alum. We can now begin to heal the woke rot that has infected our historic educational institutions.
We need more leaders like you who are willing to be vocal and stand up for what is right.
“Doing things that are hard is one of the best ways to pursue a life worth living, because the pleasure we get afterwards is more enduring. We tend to forget that earned highs are that much sweeter.” - Anna Lembke, Dopamine Nation
Very proud of the
@HuKitchen
team for getting into
@Costco
(who now leads in organic food sales in the US!). My brother-in-law Fred highlighting a big display of Hu Gems (Organic, plant-based chocolate chips) with only 3 ingredients!
Mistakes is the word you're too embarrassed to use. You ought not to be. You're a product of a trillion of them. Evolution forged the entirety of sentient life on this planet using only one tool: the mistake." - Robert Ford (as played by Anthony Hopkins), Westworld
My conversation with
@humankarp
& Shark Tank’s
@RohanAOza
I wanted to call this episode “Make Epic Sh*t” and you’ll hear why
We cover
- balancing sizzle and steak
- trend towards healthier products
- valuation multiples
- building brand equity
Enjoy!
“Dangerous” have some of these traits:
- Easily attracted to obvious, sucker bets. Loves following the herd
- Intellectually dishonest: can’t admit mistakes or change mind with contradictory facts
- Relies excessively on gut feel
- Confuses process and outcome
Continued...(2/10)
Science also thought asbestos, thalidomide, trans fats and glyphosate were safe and fine for decades.
There are no peer reviewed studies that I know showing the benefits of organic fruits and vegetables vs conventional. You don’t need a study showing that consuming more
I loved this discussion with
@ShaneAParrish
. We talk openly about my lifelong struggles b/c I hope that it can help others who are myopically obsessed with productivity, success and winning. I learned the hard way that this can lead to significant mental/physical health issues.
As a Muslim CEO in tech, let me just say this:
Hamas is an evil terrorist organization that needs to be wiped off the face of the Earth.
Murdering innocent civilians (children, babies, families asleep in their homes) goes against every single teaching of the Qur'an.
May they
Today, we at
@humancobrands
launched Snow Days! This is the first 100% organic, grain-free and grass-fed pizza bite. We are creating frozen comfort foods that give you that childhood feeling of freedom and surprise. Order online and try some!
5) This won’t be our last major battle as a human race. Nutrition and better lifestyle choices will not likely improve our actual susceptibility to the virus, but the strength of our immune systems will govern our ability to defend against it (once infected) and future threats.
Karp's Weekly Quote:
“I used to be afraid of flying, but one day my husband pointed out to me that it was narcissistic to think that it was my particular plane that was going to crash. That amused me and made sense, so it was sort of the end of my fear of flying.” - Nora Ephron
You asked for it! One of my favorite things is to create healthy versions of indulgent, childhood favorites. Behold a beta version of an Organic, Gluten-free Choco Taco made with grass-fed dairy ice cream. More to come from
@findcosmicbliss
…
Who wants to put this into our children’s bodies? Asbestos too was once considered a marvel of science. I am not a Luddite, and I applaud sustainability innovation, but there is no long-term safety data on the many Frankenfood “innovations” that are coming. Caveat Emptor.