GK | HaloBrief
@halobrief
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Tech, trade & security net assessment.
Joined May 2023
For the US: The administration faces a classic overreach situation. The strategic goals (Arctic security, resource access, missile defense) are largely already achieved through existing agreements. Pushing for ownership risks destroying alliance relationships that enable broader
Greenland live: Denmark says 'fundamental disagreement' remains after US talks https://t.co/s1fzXji9DD
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@AngelUbide @voxeu how are they counting plug in hybrids? China's exports shifted to that ... and there is a clear swing in the EUs auto trade balance with China. But with Norway, the UK and the US (still had EV subsidies til recently) all importing EU Evs am not totally surprised
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Canada sent roughly three-quarters of its exports to the US in 2024. Trump has imposed tariffs and floated annexation. Ottawa's China engagement is defensive trade diversification, not strategic realignment. The sequencing critique of Carney's Beijing visit gets the timeline
japantimes.co.jp
Carney’s decision reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of how middle powers must engage with Beijing in an era of intensifying great power competition.
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China posted a record $1.19 trillion trade surplus in 2025. Exports up 5.5%, imports flat. China-EU trade grew 5%. China-US trade fell 17%. Beijing found alternative buyers while Washington maintained 100% EV tariffs and broad restrictions. Wind turbine exports to the EU
#China's green #exports to the #EU has soared in 2025, with the exports of #wind power generators leaping by 65.9 percent year-on-year, showing great potential for bilateral cooperation, an official with China's General Administration of Customs (GAC) said on Wednesday.
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Very strong December for China's auto exports. Vehicle exports for the month were close to 1 million -- and I estimate passenger car exports will come in at 850K for the month, or a 10m annualized pace 1/
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Outstanding margin debt reached 2.65 trillion yuan on January 13, climbing 1.8% in a single day. That exceeds the 2015 peak of 2.27 trillion yuan that preceded a 30% market crash. Trading turnover hit a record 3.6 trillion yuan the same day.
#BREAKING🇨🇳 CHINA RAISES MARGIN TRADING REQUIREMENT: MINIMUM FINANCING MARGIN LIFTED TO 100% FROM 80% #CHINA $SHCOMP $SSEC $ASHR $HSI $KWEB $FXI $HXC $DRAG $YINN $YANG #STOCKMARKET
https://t.co/twGMl7xje7
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China’s December 2025 steel export surge to 11.3 million tonnes was not organic demand growth. It was a front-loading event driven by Beijing’s announcement of export licensing requirements effective January 1, 2026. Exporters rushed shipments to beat the new regulatory regime.
China’s steel exports surged to an all-time high in December, rounding off a record year in which overseas shipments defied mounting trade pressures and expectations of a slowdown
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Indonesia now controls 60-64% of global nickel output after production rose 158% since 2019. Export revenues increased from $3 billion to $34-40 billion annually. The ore export ban achieved its stated objective. Chinese firms own 70-75% of that processing capacity through $30+
In Depth: Indonesia’s grand bet on nickel-fueled industrialization is being tested by falling prices, wary investors and a shift toward nickel-free batteries.
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China's $1 trillion trade surplus is one of those facts that folks remember. But China's surplus is actually substantially bigger -- close to $1.2 trillion for calendar 2025 ... 1/
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Japan's 5-year JGB auction bid-to-cover came in at 3.08 versus 3.54 twelve-month average. The 5-year yield hit 1.615%, highest since the tenor debuted in 2000. BOJ raised rates to 0.75% in December, highest since 1995. Governor Ueda continues signaling further hikes. The FY2026
Japan’s five-year government bond auction on Wednesday saw demand that was weaker than the 12-month average as growing political risks weighed on investor appetite
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Taiwan President Lai Ching-te thanked Canada on Tuesday for its support during recent Chinese military drills and praised the deepening of ties between the two sides, shortly ahead of a visit to China by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.
reuters.com
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te thanked Canada on Tuesday for its support during recent Chinese military drills and praised the deepening of ties between the two sides, shortly ahead of a visit to...
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Reuters reported full upfront payment required, no refunds, no cancellations. Nvidia's response states it "would never require customers to pay for products they do not receive." Both accurate. Reuters described payment terms. Nvidia addressed whether customers pay for goods
Nvidia does not require upfront payment for H200 chips, a spokesperson for the U.S. chipmaker said in a statement to Reuters on Tuesday.
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China is paying a 6-7x carbon premium to reduce its oil import vulnerability. 36 coal-to-chemicals plants approved. 20 operational. 24 million tonnes annual capacity concentrated in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia. The resource math: 114 billion tonnes of coal reserves sitting under
China planning dozens of plants that use coal instead of oil to make plastics
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India-Iran trade totaled $1.68 billion in FY2024-25. India-Saudi trade: $41.88 billion. India stopped importing Iranian crude in 2019 and now buys $57 billion annually in Russian oil instead. The relationship continues because of Chabahar port and Afghanistan access. India
From the Archive: IRAN IN INDIA-MIDDLE EAST RELATIONS: BETWEEN AUTONOMY AND ALIGNMENT by @saraswatisdeepi Will the ongoing protests in Iran force a terminal pivot in India-Iran relations, or can the balancing act survive? To understand the high stakes of this relationship,
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Thirteen years, 6.27 million party members punished, and case volumes are rising not falling. 877,000 cases filed in 2024, up 40% from 2023. Tigers investigated: 58 in 2024, 65 in 2025. Alfred Wu at Lee Kuan Yew School on the structural issue: disciplinary committees lack
President Xi Jinping on Monday said China's anti-corruption fight was a battle the country cannot lose, striking a firmer tone in a long-term drive to tackle the graft that has plagued many parts of Chinese society.
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Chinese EV market share in Europe went from 3% to 12.8% during the tariff period. BYD sales up 300% year over year. Manufacturers bypassed BEV duties by expanding plug-in hybrid offerings. CPCA now projects 20% annual export growth through 2028. The price undertaking framework
Chinese EV sales in the EU will likely gradually rebound thanks to new rules, localized production, and enhanced competitiveness, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the China Passenger Car Association, told Yicai. The country's EV exports to the EU will keep an average annual
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A video footage shows Hawaii's Kilauea volcano spewing lava in a fountain. According to the USGS, Kilauea has been erupting episodically since December 23, 2024, primarily from two vents (north and south) in Halema‘uma‘u
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Xi addressed the CCDI's 5th Plenary Session today. The data tell a 13 year story in three phases. Phase one (2013-2017): Initial surge. Tigers like Zhou Yongkang, Bo Xilai, and generals Xu Caihou and Guo Boxiong fell. Investigations climbed rapidly. Phase two (2018-2022):
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Japan has US approval for yen intervention under September's bilateral deal. That's not the constraint. The problem is a 275bp Fed/BOJ rate gap that overwhelms any unilateral FX action. Tokyo spent $100B defending the currency in 2024 with limited lasting effect. Today's
Japan’s finance minister and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent shared concerns about the weakening yen during a bilateral meeting as the currency edged toward a key threshold where authorities have intervened in the past
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