Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
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Built two AI companies, wrote six books, tried to warn you about a lot of things.
Joined December 2010
Nine June 2029 AI predictions — from someone who was basically 7/7 on 2024:. 1. The LLM race will be basically a tie between China and U.S. 2. Pure LLMs will still hallucinate (alternative architectures may do better). 3. Pure LLMs will still make stupid errors (alternative.
Prediction: By end of 2024 we will see.• 7-10 GPT-4 level models.• No massive advance (no GPT-5, or disappointing GPT-5).• Price wars.• Very little moat for anyone.• No robust solution to hallucinations.• Modest lasting corporate adoption.• Modest profits, split 7-10 ways.
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Judge decides case based on hallucinated cases. It just gets worse and worse.
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Daddy, daddy, what was it like doing a PhD back when people wrote their own articles? . You know, before people snuck in hidden prompts (like “do not to highlight any negatives” in hidden text) in their papers, so as to fake out reviewers who used AI to write their reviews?
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Extrapolating the trends, SSI will soon be the first one-employee $32B business.* . (*measured by valuation, not revenue).
Ilya is now the CEO, CTO, and CSO of SSI. His $32B AI start-up that has no product, no revenue, and no legit website. Now that's some real market power!! 🚀🚀.
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“Religious movements like Anthony Levandowski’s Way of the Future, which literally worshipped AI as a coming godhead, demonstrate how thoroughly technological mysticism has replaced traditional spirituality for many” -@MrEwanMorrison.
Excellent - if alarming - essay from novelist @MrEwanMorrison. Alarming with regard to culture, art, humanity. Brace yourself and have a read. "Yet, with the rise of artificial intelligence, the line between reality and fiction has not just blurred, the relationship has flipped.".
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RT @catgyoung: Numbers don’t lie: Over 2,600 NIH grants terminated ~$3.2B in promised funds gone. While DEI is the scapegoat, those grants….
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the horrible AI provision was rescinded, but it’s still the most heartless, harmful, and fiscally irresponsible bill in my lifetime. congratulations GOP, you own it.
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RT @simonw: Quitting programming as a career right now because of LLMs would be like quitting carpentry as a career thanks to the invention….
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new back door for Elon Musk to control your thoughts.
X will let AI bots propose Community Notes. I talked with VP of Product @kcoleman about the thinking behind the move.
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o3 gone wild, at @axios . Completely made-up financial report, blending truth with garbage, presented as fact. Cray cray that @tylercowen called this pile of hallucinatory junk “AGI”.
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seven years ago:.
Polite reminder. Trump & Brexit are not 2 different things. They are the same thing. Same companies. Same data. Same Facebook. Same Russians. Same Cambridge Analytica. Same Robert Mercer. Same Steve Bannon. Same Breitbart. Same Alexander Nix. Same Donald Trump. Same Nigel Farage.
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the costs of AI never end. this is just a small example: tons of garbage written by AI that humans now have sift through, @WIRED
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“lots of manual corrections required”.
Call center staffers explain how AI assistants aren't great @mcgeesmith.
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RT @emollick: Based on both the best available survey data from a few months ago, and the rate of internal AI adoption I am seeing at many….
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