James Falkiner
@foxlow
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L/S mgr, banks specialist. ExSBCWarburg/UBS. Securities industry since March1987. BSc(Syd, Biology) Skier. Cyclist. General advice only for wholesale investors.
Sydney, Australia
Joined December 2009
The reversal of the Three Red Lines policy, close on the heels of purging CMC Zhang, is very interesting. Is the internal battle really hotting up? Xi's key legacy is a worryingly weak economic position. That must be worrying the elites.
So Xi and Pan recklessly torch the sector, and then surveying ground zero, decide that they have had enough of living in houses and not speculating. But its too late. If they want to stem the fallout they need to stand in the market and start buying unwanted houses, but I doubt
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So Xi and Pan recklessly torch the sector, and then surveying ground zero, decide that they have had enough of living in houses and not speculating. But its too late. If they want to stem the fallout they need to stand in the market and start buying unwanted houses, but I doubt
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$SLV has smashed its weekly volume record (and there's still two days left!) with $80b which is normally what it does in a year. Also: I heard good theory about why no flows: the demand for physical silver is so great (esp from China) dealers are raiding SLV's silver stash to
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#RBA likely needs to lift cash rate back to +100-125bp real. Assuming a steady 3.3% TM CPI that initially gives us say 4.3%, about +70bp from today. So +25bp on 3 Feb, then say +25bp on 17 March (no meeting in April), finally +25Bp in June. That would get it done 18+ months
Still too hot, on the Aus inflation front. That's 0.9% there, on the trimmed and weighted, similar to the previous hot print. 3.3% on the trimmed mean YoY, all of which are outside the band.
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Not long now. Can I get one to carry my skis?
Today we're introducing Helix 02 Dancing robots are trivial, the hard part is intelligent control This is our most powerful model to date - able to work across complex tasks & long time horizons https://t.co/aGkBOxKWxl
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He is entitled to his view, but I think he will be wrong. Again. Hamish Douglass AI warning of 10-15pc unemployment by 2030 | The Australian https://t.co/37V2RTD0Zw
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Now that's a well deserved excoriation.
@MarionKoopmans @WHO @ScienceMagazine @ECDC_EU @CDCgov @Eurosurveillanc Let's assume the NIH issued a similar statement about ‘all the high officials and scientists who pushed the world into mass vaccination, now swearing up and down that they never recommended vaccine mandates’. Would you then write a similar self-pitying epistle, trying to make
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Separating fact from fiction... Is Zhang gone for good?
Xi Jinping may still hold the title, but behind closed doors, power has shifted. After a stroke, failed coup attempts, and a silent purge of his loyalists, Xi is now under the shadow of a far more powerful figure—General Zhang Youxia. Backed by the PLA and Party elders, Zhang has
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"The PEG ratio (P/E to 3-year forward EPS growth) of mega-cap tech has declined to just 1.4x, which matches the trough reached in 2022." - GS
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Couldn't resist.
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Will mRNA vaccines ultimately be seen as one of mankind’s greatest medical mistakes? The emerging data is increasingly of concern.
Across all major cancer-tracking indices - diagnosis rates, treatment expenditures, public and institutional attention, and mortality - a clear and consistent signal is observable. All four inflected in temporal concurrence following the introduction of mRNA vaccination. The
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The chart that puts the lie to renewables lowering prices. What went wrong?
***** European governments including Germany, Britain and Denmark will reinforce their plans to massively expand wind power projects today. At a summit in Hamburg, 9 European governments will commit to accelerate the expansion of offshore wind power through large scale cross
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Schwarzman in 2023: “If you can earn 12-13% in senior secured bank debt, what else do you want to do in life?” Blue Owl Tech investors in Q4’25: Redemption requests at 17% Turns out the answer was “get my money back”
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The kid can ski. Spectacular win.
GIOVANNI FRANZONI 🇮🇹 WINS THE KITZBUEHEL DOWNHILL 🏆 2ND WORLD CUP WIN OF AN OUTSTANDING SEASON! 🔥 🥈 Marco Odermatt 🇨🇭 (+0.07) 🥉 Maxence Muzaton 🇫🇷 (+0.39) #FISAlpine #WorldCupKitzbuehel
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"Private credit has grown 14.5% annualized over the past decade. Already, evidence suggests that rapid growth has caused deal quality to erode. The share of small, middle-market companies with weak liquidity climbed roughly ten percentage points to over 30% between 2023 and 2024.
From the FT: "Troubled companies that seek to avoid costly US bankruptcy proceedings by striking controversial deals with creditors overwhelmingly default within three years, new research shows, raising questions about whether the processes do more harm than good. Liability
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"Investment grade credit spreads are widening for hyperscalers and tightening for industrials". -Apollo Slok
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Norwegian ski jumper, apparently…
How Norway’s ski jumping scandal rocked a proud nation and bedrock Olympic sport https://t.co/KE1qjPU76K
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The Greenland Play will go down as the latest exhibit in the Art of the Deal.
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"Looking ahead: January 2026 reflects a market where iron ore prices have held up in the short term, mainly supported by sentiment rather than strong underlying demand. In contrast, steel fundamentals and freight markets continue to point to softer conditions. The start of
#Ironore #markets entered 2026 showing a clear divergence between price performance and physical fundamentals. #commodities
https://t.co/UV6WaJtV6V
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Caixin: "New data showed the value of new commercial housing sales fell 12.6% year-on-year to a level last seen in 2015. The continued contraction reflects a sweeping structural shift in the market, as demand has pulled back sharply from new developments." https://t.co/3ty0eB7GYm
caixinglobal.com
Homebuyers pivot to secondhand market as developers cut supply and land sales slump
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