Fabricated Knowledge
@fabknowledge
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Simplifying the world of semiconductor investing in the age of AI. Part of the @semianalysis_ gang.
Joined September 2021
Fascinating article from Doug O'Laughlin about the history of US railroads. https://t.co/3K4l1PdW8t - Railroads helped the North to win the Civil War. - Land grants enabled the financing and construction of the first railroads. - The government was highly supportive and
fabricatedknowledge.com
History doesn't rhyme, it just repeats itself with increasingly strained analogies
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We are looking for talented engineers to work on ClusterMAX 3.0 and related consulting projects. If you like ClusterMAX, InferenceMAX, or any of our other research on ML Systems and Performance, please consider applying at the link below! https://t.co/D6F8zNf8iQ
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CPI SMASH
feeling very 2018-y
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Semi-Analysis @SemiAnalysis_ President Doug O'Laughlin @fabknowledge on TBPN @tbpn yesterday with interesting comments on Amazon $AMZN. "Data center execution is starting to become a real issue… Oracle is delayed, Fairwater (Microsoft) is delayed, CORZ and CoreWeave is
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I can't post that much as I am busy on day. A post on $MU is good later. But a quick observation over the past month or two. The noise level around memory entering this month has only amplified, but incremental signals are limited. The noise gets louder partly due to the
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Today I wrote my newest history piece, which summarizes the railroad cycle, and then brings it into how it mirrors the AI cycle a bit. I really enjoyed writing this. I learned weirdly enough about the making of finance itself. Wall Street got invented by Railroads funny enough
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Reuters: China has built a prototype EUV tool in a Shenzhen lab, led by ex $ASML engineers using salvaged ASML, Nikon, Canon parts under a secret Huawei coordinated program. It generates EUV light but not chips yet; target for working chips is officially 2028, insiders say 2030
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It's been a hot minute since I've posted a longer piece on capital cycles / history. I'm really proud to present to you my piece on railroads. Mostly this is a history piece, but I bring it together with AI at the end. Please enjoy! https://t.co/C0b1WeiKcL
fabricatedknowledge.com
History doesn't rhyme, it just repeats itself with increasingly strained analogies
I am earnestly of the belief that capital markets are now the newest and biggest shortage for the buildout of the AI buildout
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I am earnestly of the belief that capital markets are now the newest and biggest shortage for the buildout of the AI buildout
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dumb equity guy question: if the CRWV/ORCL CDS is a technical function of thin markets and few viable hedging instruments, why do the CRWV bonds themselves trade so poorly?
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I modestly raise you https://t.co/RhVqCqiC30
fabricatedknowledge.com
Demand drivers for Semiconductors
As it turns out, I read @scuttleblurb's $NVDA pieces a few days ago. This is what I wrote in a group chat after reading part 1: "I think there's a good chance that may have been the best piece on NVDA written till 2021. So many good stuff there that later became "common
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I can't believe OpenAI is getting away with this ... > OpenAI increases pricing by 40% > benchmarks everything with xhigh which uses ~100k tokens > doesn't beat Opus in coding, function calling, creative writing and bombs on most vibe benches > no big model smell despite
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BREAKING: OpenAI’s CEO of Applications @fidjissimo will join TBPN at 12:30p PT to break down today’s news.
GPT-5.2 is now rolling out to everyone. https://t.co/nfubPwnIIw
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