Austin
@energy_tech_inv
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Energy Infrastructure Entrepreneur | $LMND bull
Joined May 2021
In a few years we’ll look back reminiscently at these “boring” times for $LMND and think how simple it was to just DCA while reading one encouraging report after another - all while approaching FCF+, lower loss ratios, higher IFP, stabilizing OPEX, and new geographies/products
Remember when $LMND 🍋 was trading at $16 after 5x’ing its IFP since their IPO and being on a clear path to profitability? Yeah, I remember that. I bought more today ✅
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Whether this is right or wrong (implications are crazy if he's right), this is exactly the sort of stuff you want to see from an investor community. $LMND Hardcore due diligence... right out in the open.
It seems @CedarStResearch was partially right about a "potential" Pet rate adequacy issue, but he got the cause wrong. He assumed it was an aging issue (typical for Pet insurance) and a sensible assumption based on personal experience in the industry. But It wasn't... in his
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$ENPH Enphase management is still doing a great job at controlling their cost structure and operating expenses. Despite revenue falling off a cliff, they are profitable and generating free cashflow. • $13.9M in cash flow from operations in the 3rd quarter • Q/Q revenue growth
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I don’t think $ENPH needs the renewable energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC) to succeed. Anyways, it looks like the market may have already priced the ITC potentially going away in 2026. Enphase does get the domestic production credit, but many other industries can access domestic
Enphase $ENPH Bull versus Bear The Bull Case 🐂 - Down 91%, but the fundamentals tell a different story. - US Manufacturing: Massive South Carolina/Texas footprint is a "Tariff Shield" vs. China trade wars. Enphase’s U.S.-made products qualify for Section 45X tax credits.
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Enphase $ENPH Bull versus Bear The Bull Case 🐂 - Down 91%, but the fundamentals tell a different story. - US Manufacturing: Massive South Carolina/Texas footprint is a "Tariff Shield" vs. China trade wars. Enphase’s U.S.-made products qualify for Section 45X tax credits.
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“If we now assume that AI scaling laws persist and the AI capabilities double every 6 months, we can assume that $LMND will be doubling the efficiency at which they handle claims among other things every 6 months at a marginal cost and for the foreseeable future. That could
I didn't buy $LMND in 2023 because I thought big players like $GOOG and others had an absolute data advantage over them. @BastianelliLore is up 5X on $LMND and came on the pod today to teach me a few lessons...
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Just like in my day to day life, my investment journey is full of paradoxes and contradictions. I’m currently 39.64% in $LMND, 31% in S&P 500 products, and 18.5% in cash ($SWVXX Money Market). I have no sleep number with a high-concentration, high-conviction, volatile position
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Is ChatGPT or Gemini a better option going into 2026? I am looking to purchase a premium subscription for my business and am curious if anyone has any thoughts? Is it worth considering Claude or Anthropic?
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$LMND KPIs are starting to break out. I’m watching for operating income inflection within the next 18 months 👀
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Now that the market has violently rerated $LMND from less than an $800M market cap to a $6B market cap ($10/share to $80/share) within a relatively short time frame, I think the stock will now “just” quietly (or not-so-quietly) compound at 30-35% over the next 10 years. + or - a
What's the next Lemonade? It seems fashionable for people to diversify away from $LMND after the run over the past 14 months. They ask themselves, “Okay, I nailed this one. What’s the next play?” It’s the same question I got from a friend* back in 2020* after he 4x’d his
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“Every 4 or 5 years there’s a once in a generation opportunity that you have to be ready for and be willing to move quickly to capture, and if you do you can create disproportionate value” What’s your generational opportunity? What have you waited 4 or 5 years to pounce on?
open.spotify.com
Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy · Episode
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$LMND “Although when LMND dropped to $10 it was priced at pretty much its cash balance. Market was effectively saying it was going bankrupt as there was zero value attributed to its enterprise” - @SpecDrink1732 Crazy to think there was a point in the last couple of years
What’s wild is that 3 years ago today every “smart money” anon hedge fund bro was calling the Carvana team: • criminals • frauds • bankrupt • “uninvestable” They weren’t analyzing a business. They were performing for each other.
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$LMND “The story is shifting from ‘Will this ever work?” to “How big can it get?’ and the market is starting to price it accordingly.”
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Really appreciate this balanced and nuanced perspective of $LMND by Jeff and Jason at @InvestingPod. Thank you for answering my listener question about dropping BV/Share, what metrics to watch, and when it might reverse (Timestamp 3:03 - 15:00). Definitely give these guys a
open.spotify.com
Investing Unscripted · Episode
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Remembering to take a step back and enjoy the simple things. One of our wedding songs had the lines: “I can’t promise you much but time by the sea. And I can't promise you things But I can promise you these Hands I can hold I can hold” Over 4 years later and these important
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I think it goes without saying: Folks who take on leverage at historic market valuations (greater than 99th percentile) might experience negative consequences as a result. And that’s okay, it’s part of the game. 15% drop: every 2 years 20% drop: every 3 ½ years 25% drop:
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My take on preferring management sticks to its current adjusted EBITDA guidance of Q4 2026 rather than pulling it forward a couple quarters. If they have the operational efficiency to hit adj EBITDA+ in Q2, I’d rather them drop prices, expand market share, capture more future
@cdhertel Ah okay! I still think adj EBITDA positive will be in Q4. As an investor that’s what I’m hoping for. Because if they have the operational efficiency to hit in in Q2, I’d rather them drop prices, expand market share, and increase longer term LTV of cohorts and future gross profits
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Who enjoys a profitability inflection point? Crazy to be amidst the most incredible inflection point of my investing career and see it coming. Graph and model from @PaperBagInvest's Patreon account. Video: Get Ready to Buckle Up for $LMND Q4 and 2026 https://t.co/91B9ALYrO6
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Travis is consistently putting out great content through X and his Asymmetric Investing YouTube channel. Highly recommend following both if you’re interested in $HIMS
$HIMS Quick reminder, there's a company out there compounding revenue at 77% and trading for just 4x sales.
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