Sebastian Villarreal
@elbasti
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Small TAM tweets. Ex fintech guy (cofounder https://t.co/eS20YtHc8Q, https://t.co/jIouZwoLGV) now working on manufacturing. "Classical liberalism + State Capacity"
CDMX and NYC
Joined December 2009
Many people don't realize that the Waymo vs Tesla question is not "hardware" vs "vision": The vision side is also hardware limited! ...by the hardware of the camera, that is. Most people don't know how absurdly superior human eyes are to even the best cameras, in terms of
The autonomous taxi market is now a race between Waymo cutting hardware costs and Tesla getting their system to drive sufficiently well. The best data we have suggests that Tesla needs to drop accident rates by roughly a factor of 10, but there are large unknowns there.
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The podcast I want: Series B+ startup founder interviewing founder of a profitable, legacy, ~$100MM+ ebidta boring services or manufacturing business. Comparing notes on org size, design, cost, pricing, go-to-market, risks, challenges, etc.
The podcast I want: founder interviewing founder/execs on their Systems of Work. How do they: * Their company's operating system * How a meeting is run * How performance management/hiring is done Maybe I should do this myself...
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Me when people talk about data centers in space.
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"Space data centers" are scientifically illiterate. The problem is cooling. For reference, the ISS radiates ~100 kW in an area 40m2. A data center produces 10,000 times more heat. A single "AI" scale orbital data center would need a cooling structure 400,000m2 in area.
I will spell it out so everyone gets it: To win the AI race you need the most compute, data, and energy. Everyone is working within the same constraints: there's just one internet, just one GPU provider, same competition over data centers, energy suppliers, etc. Space changes
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Is this the best (ie, worst) "call us" pricing page copy or what? Clear as mud.
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The most dangerous thing in the world is an idea that survives contact with opposing ideas, but does not survive contact with reality.
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It's saturday night and you kids need more 1996 Roni Size in your life.
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An attempt to steelman why society is reluctant to legalize drugs like MDMA or LSD that are far less harmful than alcohol (just a thought experiment): It's true that these drugs are much less harmful than booze and it takes a serious amount of overconsumption to cause harm to
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You can get all this by living in a walkable neighborhood.
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To all my American followers: Happy thanksgiving! Also, you post on x today I will kind of judge you for being on your phone instead of paying attention to your loved ones.
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Repeat after me: margin goes to the layers in the stack that are capacity constrained. In AI that's: the chip makers and the manufacturing for data centers (energy, steel fab, etc). You all know the story about shovels in the gold rush! Yet you're out there mining!
Most AI startups will go bankrupt within 18-24 months. After reviewing hundreds of AI startups' financials at Hustle Fund, I'm seeing a sustainability crisis that nobody's talking about. The numbers are brutal. 🧵
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Subprime auto delinquencies hit their highest rate since 1994. This is a screeching alarm on the state of the economy. Auto loans are the last thing people want to default on. As we used to say in lending: "You can sleep in your car but you can't drive your house to work."
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The thermostat for the earth has already been set to +3C. That's already baked. Solar, nuclear, etc do *not* turn the knob lower. We are still turning the knob! The only thing that turns the knob left is geoengineering.
When articles tell us that the last time CO2 was at today's level the earth was 3C warmer and seas were 15-25m higher, it's not designed as an IQ test. They're telling us what's going to happen. https://t.co/vXNJ9qaiqu
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@moseskagan I sometimes fantasize about wildly impractical but theortically interesting regimes to help with some of the real issues with gentrification. For the problem of "the renters that built a neighborhood's character don't share in the appreciation upside": Crazy idea: if a
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An obviously ai-written email like this is negative signal. It's just slop and spam in my inbox. I'd legit prefer an old school "YOUR TICKET NUMBER IS" acknowledgment than whatever this is trying to do. @rahulvohra this is bs.
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I've often wondered (in a sci-fi sense): "what would happen if there was a virus that made everyone just a bit dumber? How would we know?" I guess this is one way we'd find out!
NEW: UC San Diego has released a new report documenting a “steep decline in the academic preparedness” of its freshmen. The number of entering students needing remedial math has exploded from 1/100 to 1/8. They’ve had to create a second remedial class covering elementary and
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Tesla has released three new models in ten years.
Elon Musk: With Optimus, we might be able to stop putting people in prison. “If somebody's committed a crime, we might be able to provide a more humane form of containment of future crime. You now get a free Optimus, and it's just going to follow you around and stop you from
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