Ehraz Ahmed
@ehrazahmedd
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Wildlife conservationist. Horseman. Investor. Navigating trends, studying stock market science & finding the leaders of tomorrow. Not financial advice.
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Joined May 2010
The real bottleneck for Earth based data centers is not power, but politics.
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$SPY This is not "bear porn". This is exactly the Tyler Jenkins 'Hyperwave' template. And that’s why it’s so unsettling. Even late-cycle RSI breakout is dangerous, happens after a parabolic price phase. RSI breaks out, but immediately rolls over. Each push higher has less
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RSI (monthly) at 43 confirms loss of strength. This is bear market RSI behavior, not bullish consolidation. Base case for $DXY: Breakdown from the rising wedge. Slow bleed, then sharp unwind. Targets over time: 92, 88, mid-80s.
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Bear flag on the $VIX. Makes sense VIX resolves lower first. Then spikes later when positioning is max complacent. So timing-wise, a final VIX flush fits very well.
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The AI infra trade is splitting into: Phase 1 (Now ending): Earth-bound GPU landlords. Fueled by cheap capital. Hit by refinancing fear. Phase 2 (Ongoing): Hyperscaler digestion. Slower, steadier, lower multiple. Phase 3 (Just starting): Non-terrestrial compute.
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Stocks ran ahead of credit. Credit pulled them back to reality. This is not company-specific risk. This is business-model risk. Market priced AI infra as growth. Credit priced it as a balance sheet stress test. Now, here's the harsh truth - Neoclouds exist only because
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Note: AI Neoclouds ( $CRWV, $NBIS, $IREN) live in credit markets. Expansion = more debt. Debt reprices every cycle. When rates spike, equity collapses. This is exactly what we've been seeing recently.
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Note: AI Neoclouds ( $CRWV, $NBIS, $IREN) live in credit markets. Expansion = more debt. Debt reprices every cycle. When rates spike, equity collapses. This is exactly what we've been seeing recently.
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Once an idea moves from impossible → plausible, capital, narrative and optionality do the rest.
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Markets price optionality before certainty. This is the same stage cloud, EVs and GPUs once occupied.
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If orbital compute does not beat Earth on cost, it must win on something else.. That “something else” is deployability under constraint: No grid interconnects. No permitting timelines. No water consumption. No voters or ratepayers. No geopolitical choke points.
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Soon “Is orbital compute possible?” to “Which architectures and suppliers win?”
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AI electricity demand is rising faster than grid expansion. Data centers are politically contentious (rates, water, land). Nuclear and transmission are decade-scale solutions. Hyperscalers seek unconstrained, sovereign, non-voter-exposed capacity. Orbital compute becomes a
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“Artificial Super Intelligence” → “Artificial Space Intelligence”
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The real bottleneck for Earth based data centers is not power, but politics.
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When AI leaves Earth.
Elon Musk in new interview on building AI datacenters in space: "Space is overwhelmingly what matters; If you want to have something that is 1 million times more energy than Earth could possibly produce, you must go into space. That is where it's handy to have a space company."
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Political backlash for terrestrial data centers gathering steam. Ignore it at your peril.
I will be pushing for a moratorium on the construction of data centers that are powering the unregulated sprint to develop & deploy AI. The moratorium will give democracy a chance to catch up, and ensure that the benefits of technology work for all of us, not just the 1%.
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