Across the board, an almost gravitational pull towards third parties at this election - as Tory seats went towards Lib Dem and Reform, and Labour seats went towards Green and Independent

With Labour's struggling in Caerphilly, we conducted a focus group to try and understand why voters were moving away from Labour in a traditionally rock solid seat. By far the biggest driver, typified by the winter fuel allowance decision was a sense the party had lost its way.

While views varied across our focus groups, a desire for change was clear in all of them. SNP voters wanted change in Scotland’s constitutional status, Reform voters sought a break from UK mainstream parties, and Labour voters wanted change from SNP rule at Holyrood

That said, Reform were clearly polarising in these groups - and it was clear that many of the SNP and Labour voters we spoke to would be willing to vote tactically to stop a Reform victory

The reasons that people liked Farage and Reform were similar in Dundee as they are in the rest of the UK - they think Farage speaks his mind more than other politicians and represents a break from the mainstream parties

But in our group of Reform voters, participants were much more enthusiastic - describing Reform as a "breath of fresh air". In a week when the SNP set out a plan for "a fresh start for Scotland" it was clear that to these voters felt Reform was certainly much fresher

So where might they go? Reform is the party most clearly on the rise in Scotland (we have them tied for second place in our Holyrood List voting intention). Some voters we spoke to were concerned about the rise of Reform - in this quote one SNP voter said she'd consider voting

Indeed, without independence as a motivator, the SNP faces the same anti-incumbent mood that has been so strong in elections all around the world in recent years - and voters are willing to punish the SNP for perceived failures on the cost of living in particular

On the other hand, the more unionist voters were much less positive in their opinions of the SNP. For many of them, they thought the SNP were using Westminster as an excuse for why they can't achieve the change they are promising for Scotland

Even voters who were not enthusiastic about SNP policies or politicians were willing to back the SNP as the best way to get independence. Core SNP voters we spoke to were all very happy with the party's decision to seek a referendum if they win a majority next year.

For many the SNP voters we spoke to - the SNP was still seen as the only practical way to reach independence - which they say as the only way to address these underlying problems

Voters across the political spectrum were positive about many of the actions of the SNP - from free school meals to free prescriptions - but there was a strong sense amongst all of them that fundamental problems in the country - be it in the economy or NHS - still needed to be

As the SNP held their conference this weekend, we ran three focus groups in Dundee to hear what voters think after 18 years of SNP rule. With Holyrood elections looming, voters were split between feeling ‘SNP fatigue’ and seeing them as the best option for Scotland - a 🧵...

Looking forward to taking part in this today @Moreincommon_

Excited to be speaking on this panel later with @lucyidunn @SeamusLoganMP @SNPMichael - will be presenting some new Scottish polling data too. Do come along!

At @theSNP conference? Join our team for our fringe event at 1.00 today where we’ll be sharing new focus group and polling data on attitudes to Scottish politics and next years election and discussing what it means with our fantastic panel.

Will be sharing what people have to say at our event tomorrow! Do come along if you are in Aberdeen

Up in Scotland for SNP Conference and using the opportunity for a quick trip to Dundee to run some focus groups - lovely day for it!

Rebuilding trust will be the major challenge for the Conservatives over the next few years, if they want anybody to take their policy proposals seriously. But I do think that honing in on the economy as a strong point against Reform and Labour could be their best hope of doing

That said, they have to overcome serious trust issues. In a focus group of Established Liberals in St Albans tonight, participants were thrilled by the announcement and many had heard of it already. When I mentioned it to a group of Rooted Patriots in Stockport, they laughed at

More broadly, it is important for the Conservatives to have flagship policies on the economy they can be talking about. Immigration matters to their voters, but it's the economy where they will be more likely to beat Reform, so it's wise to make the economy central to how they