Don Moore
@donandrewmoore
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Decision researcher at UC Berkeley's Haas School of Business. Only sometimes overconfident.
Berkeley, CA
Joined May 2010
RT @JPubEcon: Just published in @JPubEcon:. "Does the prospect of upward mobility undermine support for redistribution?". By @donandrewmoor….
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The inconsistencies we document, even between different measures of the same form of overconfidence, are hard to reconcile with a simple version of the claim that overconfidence is some sort of stable trait.
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You probably think there are some people who are more overconfident than others. If so, then you might be interested in our paper:
cambridge.org
Is overconfidence an individual difference? - Volume 20
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PCI Psychology is a bold new effort seeking to improve peer review by separating it from journals and the publication process. Join us by signing up here:
docs.google.com
READ THIS INFORMATION BEFORE FILLING OUT THE FORM Use this form to show interest in becoming a recommender or managing board member for PCI Psychology only. (If you are only interested in becoming a...
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I'm in the middle of this audiobook, and loving it. Highly recommended!.
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Applications are open for the Ph.D. program in Management of Organizations at UC Berkeley's Haas School of Business:
haas.berkeley.edu
Berkeley Haas Admissions The Berkeley Haas PhD program is a fully-funded, five-year, full-time, in-residence program resulting in a PhD in Business Administration. Applicants must select from one of...
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Stay skeptical, people.
The 2024 presidential campaign so far has been full of unexpected plot twists—and there’s still 12 weeks to go before the general election. 🗳️. Professor @donandrewmoore and his former student Aditya Kotak give the 101 on polling accuracy. #BerkeleyHaas.
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On December 8th, our Berkeley journal club read a paper claiming that thoughts of God increased algorithm appreciation. Today, @PNASNews published our attempts to replicate those results. Spoiler alert: we fail to replicate the original claims
pnas.org
Does thinking about God increase acceptance of artificial intelligence in decision-making?
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Okay, this is awesome. Thank you, @william_h_ryan, for making it so easy to back up my Qualtrics surveys and data!.
I wrote a small script for backing up all your Qualtrics surveys (.qsf files + data) locally using their API, and figured it might be helpful for someone else. It could definitely be improved, but it worked for me as a way to have a backup just in case:
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RT @SJDM_Tweets: The Society for Judgment and Decision Making is pleased to announce that the latest newsletter is ready for download:. htt….
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But if the chasm were twenty feet wide, no amount of positive self-talk would get him across. Believing in yourself, if it prompts you to jump to your death, would qualify as a mistake—however much it displays an admirable confidence in your capabilities.
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How wide is too wide? Perhaps the doubting James could jump a five-foot crevasse. Let’s say that believing in himself could get him up to another foot. Then if the crevasse were less than six feet across, James should repeat some empowering self-affirmations and go for it.
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When I first read James’s account, I took it as a persuasive argument for the benefits of optimism. However, further reflection raised concerns. If the moral is that it’s always better to believe you can do it, that seems wrong. Sometimes you cannot jump the crevasse.
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James concludes that in a situation like this, “I should be a fool if I did not believe what I wished, as my belief happens to be a preliminary condition which is essential to the accomplishment of the end which it affirms.”.
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The second outcome imagines self-doubt. This doubting James hesitates, wavers, and then, “weakened and trembling, compelled to take the leap by sheer despair, I miss my aim and fall into the crevasse.”.
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William James imagined that if he believed in himself, he would be more likely to successfully make a “bold dangerous leap.”.
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In 1878, William James wrote about the power of positive visualization. He imagined having to make a “bold dangerous leap.” James describes two possible outcomes. In the first, he believes in himself. The confident James he jumps, and he makes it.
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