Not a fan of posting day 15 deterministic output but for 7-8 runs, I keep seeing high latitude ridging with cutoffs underneath. This would result in AEWs getting yanked NW early on, hurting seasonal ACE. A bit concerning for those (as myself) that predicted an above normal year.

Taking a look at the experimental wind gust product we're running for HAFS, all of the different HAFS versions show gusts of at least 120 kt (140 mph) over parts of the #Jamaica coast in a few days. This storm is going to be a multi-hazard threat: rain, wind, and surge.

Oct can bring out some erratic tracks as we see with Melissa and it will be the only storm to make it into the Caribbean this hurricane season, with the majority of activity confined to the SW ATL and recurving away from the CONUS. Surprisingly very little Gulf activity too.

Majority of ensembles show a direct landfall on Jamaica, although some members still show Melissa moving west fast enough to barely avoid a landfall as it recurves NNE. Eastern Cuba and the East/Central Bahamas will likely receive direct impacts as Melissa accelerates NE.

After battling hostile conditions for days, Melissa has blossomed considerably with an inner core already developed. A mid level ridge is building to its north and will guide it west south of Jamaica before a shortwave trough turn it N/NE, likely over Jamaica and Eastern Cuba.

As good as #98L looks now (hints of an LLC, sustained deep convection past six hours), I am skeptical of it getting its act together as quickly as the 00Z HAFS A/B showed - e.g. quick alignment of the lower and mid-level centers and a hurricane by Tue late afternoon/evening.

The tropical wave we've been watching for days continues to slowly organize on approach to the Lesser Antilles. Very good chance it becomes a TC in the Caribbean but where it goes/how strong it gets is still a mystery. Probably will get tagged invest 98L very shortly.

Lot of uncertainty with the track of the AEW in the MDR. Too many moving variables (forward speed, vortex location, trough depth, extent of ridge rebuilding, etc) What track do you expect this wave to take once in the Caribbean, assuming it becomes a TC at some point?

For mid Oct, this is impressive for an AEW. The Lorenzo AEW was also impressive but it took a NW track into an unfavorable environment. The trailing wave will move into a more favorable environment in the Caribbean and there's a decent chance it spins up near the Lesser Antilles.

There's considerable spread for whether the wave hugs South America, slips north of the Caribbean, or goes somewhere in between. First thing that needs to be sorted out is whether the wave amplifies on approach to the Antilles, a likely prerequisite for TCG down the road.

An amplified wave can take advantage of more favorable conditions further west (GFS) while something weaker (AIFS) would not develop. The ECMWF is somewhere in between the GFS and AIFS and the CMC is the most bullish, showing TCG occurring pretty far east.

The Azores High will rebuild rather quickly for the trailing wave and will keep it on a westerly heading toward the Caribbean. Some fast flow and dry air will limit it and a lot will come down to how convectively active (amplified) the wave will be on approach to the Caribbean.

One of the few MJO passages of the hurricane season will help foster a window for one or both of these waves to develop. 97L (front wave) will battle shear as ridging to its north weakens, pushing it right into the TUTT. It's future is limited, though it may get a name.

The Eastern ATL looks quite convectively active for mid Oct, with one AEW (97L) and another one behind it (one to watch) about to come off Africa. The trailing wave is the one global models have been eager to develop and should be watching over the coming week.

The 18z GFS depicts these waves, as well as Jerry. Jerry and the leading wave should recurve sharply but the ridge should rebuild for the trailing wave, though it remains to be seen whether it moves further south into the Caribbean or just north of the Antilles (dominant track).

For now, model support is weak but it wouldn't surprise me to see support tick up as we move up in time and models accurately reflect the effects of the MJO passage. Note 95L recurving OTS and some hybrid system off the East Coast. A weak signal in the NW Caribbean as well.

Wave breaking in the East/Central ATL will attempt to tug this wave north and shear it. Should it avoid getting yanked north, ridging (albeit weak) should rebuild to the north and attempt to guide this wave toward the Caribbean.

With the most favorable tropical forcing of the hurricane season, wouldn't surprise me to see a CAG setup in the W. Caribbean. The Tropical ATL should be watched to see whether this wave (or subsequent ones) can survive and make it west into the Caribbean (more favorable area).

With 95L posed to become a TC and pass near the Northern Antilles, there may be another opportunity for an AEW to become a future entity down the road as the MJO pushes through the ATL basin and eventually Africa.

The Northern Lesser Antilles, USVI, and PR will need to watch 95L closely. A few points in time to watch is when 95L starts to move more WNW in the Central ATL and then on approach to the Caribbean, when the motion becomes more NW. That will depend on the A/B High to the north.

With models being tepid with the CAG producing a Caribbean storm, what’s more likely to produce a Caribbean hurricane this hurricane season?