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Comex weekly physical gold deliveries breaking > ~30year range ceiling. Note graphic below, slow-moving 2month & 6month plots. Paper:physical ratio > 100:1.
Immense bid for world's neutral reserve asset.
All in the open.
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Spot China gold (SGE) trading ~120pts (+6%) premium to liquid COMEX contract. 2x historical max premium. 10d average pricing ~+69pts (+3.6%) premium. Unparalleled.
SGE premium bid has now persisted for 3months, a record. A sizeable global basis arbitrage window is open. This…
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Eurodollar Curve (EDZ2Z3) has begun to shout. ~52bps inversion over past 2 weeks. WTI+Brent curves final dominos to fall. FOMC will then swiftly align with ED messaging.
@LukeGromen
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Without announcement, FED has commenced operational Yield Curve Controlled Channel [YCCC].
~15bps YCCC over a 100day period.
All in the Open.
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Comex gold inventory has served as a beacon, since early Y2K secular bull. Normalizing both spot Gold and held inventory foreshadows spot gold ~$2591/oz. Open mind.
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“It is absurd that Europe pays for 80% of its energy import bill ~300B euro a year – in USD when only roughly 2% of our energy imports from US. It is absurd that European companies buy European planes in dollars instead of euro,” EC President JC Juncker, State of Union Address
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Gold / Special Drawing Rights weekly plot has spoken. Firm breakout of ~9yr base formation. Near exact structure triggered late 2005 vaulting Gold/SDR from 288 to 1238. Current formation foreshadowing SDR 5,323 per lot.
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"When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic."
-Ben Franklin, a Founding Father of the United States
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Silver futures curve coiled. Similar patter to AUG 1997, AUG 2007, JUN 2020 which foreshadowed multiple-sigma +runs.
Spot, 23.19
Silver + 6m, 25.05
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*G-7 SET TO BACK PLAN TO INTRODUCE CAP ON PRICE OF RUSSIAN OIL
Translation = G7 backs SCO/BRICS mandate to re-rate Gold-Oil Ratio (GoR). This in order to establish physical gold as neutral reserve/settlement asset in emerging BW3 world financial regime.
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US Balance of Payments (BoP) crisis, assured.
WASHINGTON, Sept 13 (Reuters) - The United States is considering options for a sanctions package against China to deter it from invading Taiwan.
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USA Balance of Payments Crisis, writ large:
*US LAWMAKERS PROPOSE SCREENING OUTBOUND US INVESTMENT: DJ
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Go-Time for Yellen's "Regular & Predictable Treasury
Buyback Program...to provide liquidity support, and bolster market function."
Creator of UST Volatility metric (Bassman) writes that a 150 reading on the MOVE index "occurs when the Fed has lost control." Last close, 198.7
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First Time *EVER* $Gold WEEKLY volatility range (Boll W) begins expansion from a sub-7 level w/ spot $Gold >2K mark.
OPEN WATER.
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Quietly, Comex physical gold delivery notices (20 week MA) ~+65%, shattering kept records. This in past 4weeks alone. Of interest, this coincides with a minor drain of GLD (piggybank) tonnage. Physical supplies running low at current prices.
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Indonesian govt to launch a blockchain-based, precious metals-backed payments &savings platform outside the banking system.
3rd most populous nation on planet.
Crickets...
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The Foreshadowing:
"If we overtighten, then we have the ability with our tools - which are powerful - as we showed at the beginning of the pandemic episode, to support economic activity strongly - if that happens."
FED Chair, FOMC presser - minute 36:30
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Pandora's Box opens: US Fed Govt begins to bailout (size) PRIVATE pension plans. $3B/annum subsidy + $90B liability shift to PBGC. Small detail: PBGC liabilities = $67B, assets = $2B. A theme Congress will embrace in years ahead.
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Comex, "Force Majeure" in play. Futures contracts now ~60% physical backed. Represents ~4X Annum USA gold production (~30% World). All in the open.
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Week 95 of persistent COMEX silver inventory drawdown. This time juncture forced the px of financialized silver to re-price over proceeding ~8 wks by ~75%. COMEX physical drain is greater today. Whilst real-world deficit has risen 1.21 Bln Oz.
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Tap-Out: Japanese insurers ~$4.8Trillion in assets decide to unload Negative US Treasury yields (fx adjusted). Caveat: A significant $JPY devaluation may alter USTs liquidation (via X-ccy basis channel).
Japan Insurer’s Plan to Sell Foreign Debt Flashes Market Warning…
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The world knows that the US Capital Account = SP500.
The FED will be made to understand this, abruptly, in 2023.
SP500 = 3,830
DXY = 104.50
Gold = 1794
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"At market extremes, price becomes it's own fundamental." -Soros, paraphrased.
NDX100 monthly price series has now surpassed envy levels last visited in 1q2000.
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FED Balance Sheet cutting (QT) on borrowed time.
(BBG) Fed Funds Borrowing Leaps to New High as Banks Scramble for Cash
"Trade in a key overnight funding mrkt surged to highest in 7yrs..." (pink plot)
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Mass distraction: Inflat'uation, dot-plots, balloons, tanks, UFOs. Whilst, ~3wks post Yellen emergency measures, 1yr default insurance on USTs widened (explosively) >levels of past $US-fiat stress. Amerika's financial/leverage constraints on full display. t-2m.
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Drifting into oblivion, or near-exact mirror image. UST30 nominals now ~2% deviation from master 200week MA.
The inverse panic last printed week DEC 18, 2008. The FOMC discussed adding USTs to QE1 program at DEC 16 '08 meeting.
[US1 continuous contract, 120-17 last]
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Comex Gold front curve (GC1-GC2) closed in steep contango today (5.40pts). Rare tactical disposition. Last such signal = DEC 29 2015.
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Open Sesame: US Treasury Volatility.
The planet's financialized, credit system is based upon the stability of $collateral (USTs).
'Safe Asset' values = essential to NGDP ascent & credit creation (+US bank solvency).
$70Trillion of global sovereign debt needs to be rolled this…
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Challenger Grey YoY% Job Cuts, +417%. Most severe jobs liquidation since forced economic shut-down of MAR-APR 2020.
DXY 6month RoC breaks negative within 4 wks, since data collection began in late 1990s. US data deterioration versus RoW, full tilt.
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JAN 6, 2022, 1yr Silver Comex curve = 5pts
Steepest Backwardation since the onset of colossal run for the white metal ($11.50 - $50).
>1pt flattening signal triggered, overnight.
Launchpad set.
[spot silver, 24.24 last]
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US banks leaning into FED Bank Term Funding Facility. Exploiting balkanized UST pricing at par/rate arb. No matter. Velocity of collateral at hand. A form of targeted, high velocity QE.
'Coincidentally', this ramp kicked-off week of NOV 1, the violent pivot higher in US risk…
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@DanielaGabor
@Kathleen_Tyson_
The FED has created a new subordinated USTreasury class. All non-US bank-held USTs = subordinated paper.
Immense US BoP implications.
@LukeGromen
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Empirically, $USTs are the new junk debt.
Duration adjusted % return, HYG > TLT: ~10X YTD.
Public into Private asset switch in full view.
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Silver-Gold Ratio (XAG/XAU), 8 Month RSI < 22. Third occurrence in past ~40yrs. Aggressive Sequential set. Time stamp: SIZ9, 15.35 last.
Rare Intermediate Opening.
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Get the Popcorn 🍿
*US IMPOSES SANCTIONS ON USE OF RUSSIAN METALS ON EXCHANGES
*US ANNOUNCES RESTRICTIONS ON RUSSIAN COPPER, ALUMINUM, NICKEL
*US TO BAR RUSSIAN METALS MADE AFTER APRIL 13 FROM LME
*US TO LIMIT USE OF NEW RUSSIAN METALS IN DERIVATIVES TRADE
Spot Copper, 429
3m…
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Unlike 2011, the plumbing is now prepared for a US Treasury default (WSJ, Hilsenrath). The markets for US Bills and CDS knows this. Long-End nominal swaps have begun to awaken. Comex delivery notices and physical metal warehouse shuffling, confirm.
"Among them, the Fed’s…
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Point Break: Comex physical gold inventory / Net Non-Commercial Futures Positions now sits ~9x, most extreme reading in the history. Previous peak readings = Week DEC 4 2015, AUG 10 2018. Now ~x2 turns further geared.
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USA Trade Deficit on a ~$1.5 Trillion run-rate/annum. The mathematical definition of USA net export disintegration. USD is the only pragmatic release valve. [DXY, 102.97 last] (corrected, h/t
@LukeGromen
)
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Apple Inc. has added $400B in market cap over past 10days and now trades at ~6.9x EV/sales (~1.4x >past 10yrs). AAPL stock closed at a 49.47% spread to 200dma. Gravitational Pull at exact time/price in 2012 cut the stock in half over 14 months. Keep the parachute close.
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Gold Basis Stress: Causation or Correlation, no matter.
In recent past, FED RRF usage > $50mm/week, caused material inflows into front $Gold.
Likely due to physical scarcity stress; EFPs in 2Q20, Basel 3 NSRF now.
*This impulse is now ~5.6x that of 2Q20.
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When a storied crisis advisor to US Presidents, ex-Federal Reserve governor publishes his first ever "novel", we pay v close attention to it's content.
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OPEN WATER 2
~3yr normalized comex gc open interest negative as $gold vaults away from 3.5yr shelf formation. DEC Gold
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"[...] the move this time is very gold centric + physical buying driven with all gold crosses including XAUEUR, XAUCHF continuing to make new highs.…
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Epicenter of the evolving multi-polar macro-financial system =
GoR [Gold-Oil Ratio]
Decisive weekly breakout, post 2022-23 global rate shock .
$XAU/Wti, 28.99
$XAU/OPEC basket, 30.16
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Amerika running ~7% fiscal deficit as its tax-take collapses, and NET foreign selling of USTs. US yields could NOT tighten in 1H w. minimal issuance. Now, looking at ~15% of GDP annualized issuance in 2H + TGA build + FED QT. This is the IMPOSSIBLE TRINITY.
Unless, Amerika…
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Mitsui & Co., member of Japan's largest (keiretsu) conglomerates to underwrite digital stablecoin backed by physical gold. License granted by Japan's FSA [...] will allow for the purchase of items via smrtphone [...] guaranteed by Sumitomo Mitsui Bank.
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~3yr ATH breakout in Comex $Gold in to kick-off MARCH.
Opening Runaway Gap to kick-off APRIL.
Volatility profile shows few positioned for the Phase Transition at hand.
2-3x vol expansion ahead. Early Doors.
spot $Gold, $2280
3m XAU vol, 13.57
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Comex Gold Managed Money Positioning has been cut ~99.5%, a record. In-line with near maximum net short spec positioning. This at a time when gold Co-basis has begun to accelerate higher since mid-JUN.
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Phase Transition, in the open: Gold Mining corporations are now the sole suppliers of the world's multi-polar NEUTRAL Reserve Asset, under the emerging Bretton Woods 3.0 Regime born on FEB 27, 2022.
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According to BNY Mellon = Largest securities custodian on planet, ~$43Trillion. Custodian to the NY FED, Central Banks, Sovereign Wealth Funds – of the world.
1/Treasury inflows from overseas have collapsed
2/The 20-day rolling average of scored daily flows is now as…
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Rare contango opening in Silver pricing.
Front month comex now ~8% discount to 6th contract [JUL 24]. Curve was last this extreme during the SnL crisis period. Such a contango vortex ends on a dime; its reversal is equally as violent. Lets watch.
Sin3 = 22.77
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New Motto = "T-Bills and Panic."
$5.9T has flooded into money markets. 1.5x that of peak GFC risk-aversion. ~20% of US GDP. To boot, retail continues to hoard 2-3x short equity ETFs.
Early doors.
MSCI World, 3047
Russell 2k, 1880
HK Hang Seng, 16334
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Open Sesame
China’s politburo tearing sheet from Putin playbook, re: Khodorkovsky/Lukoil
“[...]a warning that winds have shifted,”
Global reverberations for monop tech / fintech, the world over. Let us watch.
Normalized % return BABA(red) versus FANG ftrs.
~95% gap at hand.
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Physical Gold supply stress manifesting in futures market. 1st to 2nd month contract backwardation > 3. Last signaled late DEC 2015. (DEC 2020 GOLD, 1662 last)
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@sentimentrader
@LukeGromen
Yet, Gold Majors' equities (GDX) have been sold aggressively by funds (pink histogram) and cumulative money flows remain deeply negative (lower panel). "Nascent stages" indeed. Early doors.
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Balkanization of US Treasuries, ~$30T market.
The FED has created a new subordinated USTreasury class.
-All non-US bank held USTs = subordinated paper, marked to market.
-US Banks mark to FED model at Par-100.
Immense US BoP implications.
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Amerika's system today: prepared for Mad Max + fully cashed-up ($4.82 Trillion dry powder).
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AAPL stock is now 6-standard deviations from 10yr mean.
~45% > 200dma, weekly lookback.
AAPL anchors investor psychology, corporate credit sentiment & sp500 nominal value. sp500=US BoP.
Ghost of Chuck Prince. Watch stage left.
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Western investor inflows have begun to ramp into Gold via GLD. Largest buy-in since Spring 2021, the last US Real Rate cycle peak. The 40week inflow differential shows a fair value gap of +100-150pts for spot gold. Heresy.
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Unparalleled Depression. Hang Seng Enterprise Index [HSCEI], the broadest China-related equity proxy - inclusive of H-shares, Red-chips, & P-chips - has never before drawn-down<-40% over a 3yr period for longer than six months without an intervening rally of ~44-210%. This is…
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Sputnik Moment >>Google's Quantum computer performed in ~3 minutes, that which a would take a supercomputer 10K Years. Will make obsolete "the cryptographic codes that lock-up some of the world's secrets."
#cryptocurrencymarket
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US seigniorage deteriorating rapidly. US Balance of Payments stress rising. The planet' largest debtor requires consistent foreign bid for its core export: US deficits. Mechanically, the only solution to stabilize/reverse UST flows dynamics = significant devaluation of $USD.
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CS Fear Barometer, 4week SMA. Market-based gauge constructed w/ SPX collar inputs. Multi-week breach of ~14 level which has marked cross-asset risk pivots. Monitoring clean flip > 14, for signal.
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Sino Gold basis supporting (prompting) unparalleled LBMA-Comex/SGE basis expansion.
Sino GC basis persistently blew-out of historical range in early AUG, and is now levitating ~+3.80% - on 10day average lookback. A lasting range expansion.
LBMA am fix, $1918
SGE AUAA, $1992
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"Gold Settling"
Currie sits at the highest “client” table.
Mid-way thru this headline-grabbing article, he reveals the novel architecture of global commodity transactions amongst nation-states.
Gold as a neutral, trade-settlement reserve asset.
Comex $gold, 2415
Comex $silver,…
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Xi Spoke last evening, very few listening.
*XI SAYS CHINA WON'T PURSUE YUAN DEPRECIATION THAT HARMS OTHERS
*Xi says China would strengthen macro policy coordination with other major economies.
Translation=CNY will be permitted to strengthen as part grand accord w/ USTreasury.
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*PBOC SAYS TO IMPLEMENT PRUDENT, NEUTRAL MONETARY POLICY
Translation = World's largest Central Bank Balance Sheet now contracting.
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Physical Gold supply stress manifesting in comex futures market. 1st to 2nd month contract backwardation > 3. Last signaled late DEC 2015.
[comex gold last, 1696.10]
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Hall of Fame diaspora of past commodity manipulations would be covetous of the current grand copper backwardation. 3m deliverable LME physical near record discount to porous spot. mark: HG1 = 362.80
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#Gold
spot hesitantly erased ~100pts over past 4wks, as 125T. paper gold shorted ahead of BRICS+ Summit. Gold DSI printed 12, level zone which marked ALL intermediate entry points since 2018.
Weekly 3m Gold volatility has compressed little over past month. 20wk 3m GV sitting atop…
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CBOE Composite Put/Call reading this am = 0.63, lowest print > 3yrs. Likely not the moment to be adding risk.
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"Look bk 2018, you see huge dislocations which came out of derivatives; oil falling 30 days in a row(…)at one stage you saw resource mrkts with 300-500% leverage on paper trades[…]creating chart patterns which have nothing to do with reality. -J Klener
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US private corp, led by 12 ofcls, directing the value of world financial affairs.
They continue into “lockup” a secure black box;Fed is the most ironclad institution in DC; it’s absolutely insane. No agency requires that - not even the Pentagon.”
3
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Game On.
1) Confirming publicly secular shift in Gold-Oil Ratio.
2) US Oil forewarned.
*PUTIN ORDER GOVT TO CONSIDER HEDGING OIL REVENUE: IFX
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Sino-Comex silver spot basis: ~16.34%. Rolling 10d average basis: ~10.57%. Crickets. Last >10% basis printed week MAR 20-2020, nadir of COVID liquidation vortex.
Siz3, $20.96
SAz3, $24.64
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Nasdaq Composite ADV-DCL internals absorbing the rising Recession-Gate chorus, over past 5 weeks. This quiet stabilization is occuring at the most distressed levels in this metric's (Nasdaq's) history.
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FEB US gold exports to Hong Kong doubled in FEB (MoM) consuming ~all of the domestic gold mine supply (source: USGS). Footsteps of Giants.
1
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Fear & Loathing Update:
CS Fear Barometer [4weekSMA].
Market-based gauge constructed w/ SPX collar inputs. Rare, clean flip > 14 level, following ~1yr waterfall. This is a secular, multi-year signal.
SPX spot: 4,113 last.
MSCI World: 2,759 last.
4
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Full-Tilt Panic Selling, Indiscriminate of Price: Deepest NYSE daily tick reading of past decade printed in opening 30min. [At 150% US market cap/ GDP, the equity market is the economy.]
1
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Shattering of PMI/US rates correlation: another overt signal of US Balance of Payments stress.
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US Pensions will make UK losses appear as mere appetizers.
Game Master J. Yellen, Chairing US Financial Stability Oversight Council, appears to have signaled a black line supporting financial asset collateral.
^USD=fulcrum instrument of US Treasury.
0
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Largest holders of crypto assets and growth equities, have liquidated. Seeds of innevitable future envy cycle in place.
[marks: BTC 19,566, NDX100 11,541]
2
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HKD begins to strengthen, abruptly. FX canary of past coordinated monetary events.
1
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[Premonition of Silver (physical-comex) basis rupture...]
*JPMORGAN IS REVIEWING COMMODITY EXPOSURE AFTER NICKEL CHAOS
@WallStreetSilv
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Context: Goldman Bull-Bear RIsk-Asset Indicator. SEP '18 percentile printed an extreme never before registered since Nixon abrogated USD-gold convertibility. Regime shift by G4 Central banks aggregate balance sheets required to suspend gravity, now that support has been breached.
0
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HUI (NYSE Arca Gold Miners) 14week RSI, as of yesterday close, traded thru most extreme reading, EVER. (data since mid-1990s)
1
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When 1) your previous largest client becomes your direct competitor 2) your current clients request trade in local Fx (or gold), you break-up the band. *SAUDI GOVT-TIED THINK TANK LAUNCHES STUDY ON OPEC BREAKUP: WSJ
1
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Quietly, BTC futures curve has shifted from 95pts contango to 75pts of backwardation. Rising scarcity signal. Peak revulsion.
2
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Russia Finance Minister, via overnight decree:
(BN) *SILUANOV: USD-BASED CONTRACTS WILL BE SETTLED IN RUB, EURO, CNY
4
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Ode to Odysseus. Likely not a time to be increasing exposure to Gold/PM miners. Managed money positions on the month, MAX historic long.
3
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*RUSSIA URALS OIL SEABORNE CRUDE EXPORTS TO JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH
Gold-Oil Ratio (GoR) mispriced, full stop.
1
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Swiss Govt Pension Fund Allocating 2% Of Assets To Gold Bars. Global pension funds manage ~USD 41 Trillion >>>such an allocation, globally = USD 820B in physical gold = ~7yrs of global production
2
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*BRAINARD: WE ARE HIGHLY ATTENTIVE TO EVENTS ABROAD
Translation:
Federal Reserve backs Bali G20 'Terms of Trade' targeting via FX channel. BIS to kick-off coordination.
[DXY 109.88, EUR 0.9966, JPY 144.15]
1
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Draghi (2019): “True sovereignty is reflected not in the power of making laws – as a legal definition would have it – but in the ability to control outcomes and respond to the fundamental needs of the people.”
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US Treasury market liquidity contracting rapidly at a time of LT technical inflection in duration.
3
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G7 openly confirms role of Physical Gold as:
1/ Official Sector Reserve Asset
2/ NEUTRAL means of exchange for global trade
*Swiss refinery + LBMA = compromised supply chain.
*Paper to Physical Gold basis, at high risk.
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