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Alex

@de1lymoon

Followers
1K
Following
7K
Media
489
Statuses
3K

Researcher & Contributor Polymarket | Memeber @zscdao - your maximum, is someone’s minimum

Bali, Indonesia
Joined February 2018
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@de1lymoon
Alex
8 hours
Me when I realized I could make +$1,000 per week using Claude + 3 Simple formulas
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@noisyb0y1
Noisy
2 hours
145,600 in a week trading with simple math and Claude this trader has been in profit for over a year no one else has this kind of consistent growth me and claude broke down his trades in detail and figured out why it's all about the strategies uses: Order Flow Imbalance
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@de1lymoon
Alex
4 hours
wait hedge funds use formulas to build full Polymarket desks and this article just... breaks down 3 of them step by step? bookmark this or keep trading like exit liquidity
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@0xRicker
0xRicker
5 hours
How Claude Code + Market Data can print you $50,000 a week You need to know how you can run a Polymarket desk with Claude + a few simple models Idea → script → data → test → result The system is simple: 1. Reaction Model Measures what price usually does after a large
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@de1lymoon
Alex
8 hours
Me when I realized I could make +$1,000 per week using Claude + 3 Simple formulas
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@de1lymoon
Alex
2 days
MiroFish: 1,000,000 AI agents are debating your future How it works: - You upload a news item, report, or event - The system builds a graph of relationships between entities - It launches thousands of agents with different beliefs - The agents debate, influence each other’s
@de1lymoon
Alex
2 days
Stop Guessing the Market. Start Running Simulations Most models try to predict the future. MiroFish does it differently: it simulates it p ≈ 320 / 1000 → EV = pW − (1 − p)L Instead of giving you one forecast, MiroFish builds a digital world from news, policy drafts,
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@de1lymoon
Alex
2 days
Stop Guessing the Market. Start Running Simulations Most models try to predict the future. MiroFish does it differently: it simulates it p ≈ 320 / 1000 → EV = pW − (1 − p)L Instead of giving you one forecast, MiroFish builds a digital world from news, policy drafts,
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@de1lymoon
Alex
3 days
Quants with models make $1,000+ per day Hunting Mispricing Most traders see charts. Quants see where price moves are real and where they’re just liquidity noise That’s what I modeled: - Δpt+h​=pt+h​−pt​ To understand how mispriced probabilities appear on Polymarket, I used
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@de1lymoon
Alex
4 days
me after spending 5 years on trading courses just to watch my friend make my monthly income in one day
@de1lymoon
Alex
4 days
Bet Sizing Secret: Kelly Criterion → $200–600/Day on Polymarket Edges > Most people lose money on prediction markets not because they can’t find good entry points They lose because they bet the wrong amount The formula they use: f* = (p × odds − (1 − p)) / odds where: p
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@de1lymoon
Alex
4 days
Bet Sizing Secret: Kelly Criterion → $200–600/Day on Polymarket Edges > Most people lose money on prediction markets not because they can’t find good entry points They lose because they bet the wrong amount The formula they use: f* = (p × odds − (1 − p)) / odds where: p
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@de1lymoon
Alex
4 days
I Analyzed 100,000 Polymarket Trades Most Traders Guess, Quants Hunt Mispricing The core question was not whether markets are informative but under what conditions price deviates from better-calibrated probability Using trade-level data, I built a feature layer around: -
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@de1lymoon
Alex
5 days
Me realizing: the gap between me and financial freedom was literally 1 script
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@noisyb0y1
Noisy
5 days
The market keeps making the same mistake and that's exactly where we make money Looked at 100,000 trades and found pricing mistakes when liquidity is low - spreads increase and that's exactly the moment to make money using: Δpt+h=pt+h-pt we can see this before everyone else
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@de1lymoon
Alex
5 days
I Analyzed 100,000 Polymarket Trades And Found Where Market Probabilities Break After analyzing 100k+ Polymarket trades, one pattern became clear Quant traders don’t just predict outcomes better, they detect when the market misprices probability In prediction markets, the core
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@0xRicker
0xRicker
5 days
Key signals + formulas to hunt mispricing like Quant Trader: Mispricing isn’t random - it’s exploitable via liquidity shocks vs real info moves. Stop predicting outcomes. Start fading temporary distortions The easiest way to copy-trade Quant traders using
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@0xMovez
Movez
5 days
Polymarket Quant analyzed 100K+ traders to find the top 5 signals for identifying market mispricing. i wish I had seen this article before I started trading on Polymarket. when these 5 indicators shift, a massive move is coming: • large trade enter - { $10K - $100K } • wide
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@de1lymoon
Alex
5 days
me realizing all I really needed was this article to start earning $5,000 a month
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