David P. Goldman
@davidpgoldman
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Spengler columnist for Asia Times and PJ Media; President, Macrostrategy LLC; Claremont Institute Center for the American Way of Life, Washington Fellow
New York
Joined March 2011
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Just so it's clear: Pelosi is Constitutionally 2nd in line to POTUS, so this is a state visit from the standpoint of diplomatic protocol. That, as a former US UN ambassador told me, is a clear violation of the '72 Shanghai Communique. That's why China will respond.
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Let's say we elect a president who wants to get out of forever wars and get along with Russia. The Deep State and the media unleash a massive disinformation campaign, and drive him from office. His successor is a fanatical NATO-expander. You're Putin: What conclusion do you draw?
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Breaking: German press uncovers smoking-gun document from 1991 proving that Russia was promised no expansion of NATO eastwards in return for German reunification. This is all over German media -- haven't seen it elsewhere, yet.
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Russia's 7:1 advantage in arms production over combined NATO is a big accomplishment. In part it is due to a reshaping of global trade and finance flows in response to US sanctions. China's exports to Russia tripled, while Turkey and the former Soviet republics are reexporting
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The drones Russia mass-produces on license from Iran have a plywood frame, a $50 Chinese 2-stroke engine, a simple pneumatic launcher, and $100 of electronics. Costliest item is the 50kg of high explosive.
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What triggers so many Muslims isn't the death count in Gaza--the ratio of civilian/terrorist dead is lower than in Mosul 2016-17 (11k dead). That was Muslims (Iraqi Army under US direction) killing Muslims, and they didn't complain. Gaza is not a slaughter but a humiliation. They
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When the dust settles, Ukraine will be a hollowed-out shell, and the masterminds of this misadventure will still have their government and think tank jobs. Being the Establishment means never having to say you're sorry.
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Remember: Putin proposed Minsk II, which kept Ukraine sovereignty. Berlin and Paris backed it, but they couldn't persuade Washington to get on board. Kiev agreed, then balked with a nudge from Blinken. Russia won't trust the Europeans for a long time. That leaves Beijing.
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@1984JZBJ
Rape and murder of Arab women? Show me a single instance. Hamas posted the video as a psy-0p. You have to be a moral imbecile to draw an equivalence.
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China has at least 68 spy satellites with advanced optics. It has 2,000 missiles that can hit anything on the surface out to 1,000 miles or more. It has 1,000 4th and 5th generation fighters. We're worked up about a balloon? Explain this to me.
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Israeli diplomat in the Persian Gulf says, "The message we're getting from the Saudis and Emiratis is, 'Waste them' [Hamas]."
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There won't be regime change in Moscow with Putin polling at 83%. The Russian economy won't collapse; ruble is back to 85, almost pre-war levels. Breaking Russia isn't going to happen. So what does Washington do next? Beats me.
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The end of Ukraine, Washington's cost-efficient way of degrading a military rival (except Russia's military is much stronger, more adept, better led and technologically more advanced than two years ago). Cost efficient for whom? The United States is governed by wicked people.
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The Biden laptop revelation has geostrategic implications: If the Intel Community and Big Tech can tilt a presidential election by alleging "Russian disinformation" and squelching evidence of Biden's corruption, Moscow will conclude that it is dealing with fanatics in the US.
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First time NYT reports "steady" Russian advances. Putin said his plan was to "demilitarize" (destroy the UKR army) and "de-Nazify" (destroy the Azov Brigade). The best military intel types I know say Putin is doing exactly that. It's not Blitzkrieg, but encircle and kill.
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No US banker went to jail for the 2008 disaster, no general or diplomat or spy was fired for the disasters in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. There are no consequences for failure in the US establishment. Same folks are there. At least Xi fired his old team and Putin fired generals.
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Is there a better argument for an armed citizenry than the fact that 20 cops waited for an hour and did nothing in Uvalde?
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Draghi out, BoJo out, Macron a lame duck, Biden a pressed duck. Looks like Putin was right: "Such a detachment from reality...will inevitably lead to a surge of populism and the growth of radical movements, to serious social...changes, to degradation...to a change of elites.”
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Biden blurted out what Admin officials have been saying in private, as Niall Ferguson leaked in Bloomberg last week. Can't walk it back.
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This is grossly misguided. China was going to rise, sooner or later, whatever we did. The notion that US policy could keep China backward and poor is not only wrong, but malicious.
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The Reuters report that Huawei can make its own 5G phone chips at home was leaked by bloggers earlier. If true, then China is replacing Western chip tech much faster than any Western observer expected. Tech sanctions don't work for very long.
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The Huawei Mate60 launch underscores the obvious: What happens in China is no longer up to us, or within or power to alter. We still talk like imperial overlords. We aren't anymore. It's within our power to improve ourselves, but we aren't using that power.
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Not clear if the new Huawei Mate 60 with faster downloads than iPhone 14 uses a 7nm chip from SMIC, or stacked 14nm chips. Either way it shows China's ability to work around tech controls.
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TSMC wants $15 bn in US subsidies for its Arizona plant so it can charge US customers 30% more for US made chips because costs are higher here. Something is very wrong.
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The Biden Administration is in meltdown. The US leaks a planned Blinken visit to China and the Chinese deny he was invited. The Saudis threaten ruin and the Turks say everyone hates us. If it weren't for Kishida we wouldn't have anyone to play with. Never seen anything like this.
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NATO sources: Russia sent a barrage of cruise missiles over Kiev; they bypassed Kiev, went on to Lviv, turned around, circled back and hit targets in Kiev, while NSA Jake Sullivan was visiting. Point of the exercise was to demonstrate the collapse of Ukraine air defenses.
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Surprised that Russia outproduces us in tanks, artillery shells, etc. by an order of magnitude? 1/3 of Russian undergrads major in engineering vs. just 6% in the US. With 2/5 of our population Russia graduates more engineers than we do. And they're good.
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China is de-coupling from the West and friend-shoring -- not the United States. It's much, much worse than we think.
Western analysts claim declining Chinese imports are a sign of weakness. Not so simple: S&P Global reports that China has substituted domestic inputs for foreign
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Not one banker went to jail over the 2008 subprime crisis, the biggest fraud in financial history. Not one member of the foreign policy blob will lose a job over the Ukraine fiasco. Close ranks and stick to your story: If they fire anybody, they have to fire everybody, and they
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Now that China can make 7nm chips for AI processors and smartphones, the US has clearly lost the tech war. We're getting nowhere in Ukraine. The great sucking sound you hear is the implosion of American influence under the Biden Administration.
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The skull of Shani Louk, the German girl whose corpse was displayed on the back of a pickup in a Hamas video, has been found. She was not only killed but beheaded. So much for "Hamas took her to the hospital."
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Viktor Orban is the smartest politician I've ever met. This assessment is frightening:
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Huawei spends $25bn a year on R&D and has 100,000 researchers. Do NOT underestimate China. Huawei just ran rings around US chip sanctions. Now it wants to set the world standard.
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China's response to US tech sanctions: Reproduce the whole chip supply chain in China and then flood the world market with cheap chips, crushing profit margins and CapEx in the West. Read with Google translate:
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The US can ban its citizens from working in China's chip industry, except we only produce 12% of the world's chips and only low-end chips. The Taiwanese and S. Koreans do all the high-end work and China can (and does) hire them. Tech controls don't work if we don't have the tech.
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The dumb thing about the chip war on China is that it plays to China's strength: Give China a well-defined objective and it will attack it Manhattan Project style. China will find workarounds and eventually match our existing tech.
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He's right: Trump Blames U.S. for 'Almost Forcing' Putin to Invade Ukraine
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China's exports to the Global South up 2x in 3 years. Digital and other infrastructure lead. China isn't contesting the US-centric order. It's building another world order of its own.
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China offers the ME nuclear power, digital infrastructure, high-speed rail, AI-enhanced solar power...and we offer them lectures on human rights.
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Germany emptied its military inventory and shut down much of its heavy industry due to the Ukraine war, and the Bundeswehr has shrunk despite efforts to recruit. It's incapable of rebuilding its military within any meaningful time horizon. Trump is right to hold Europe's feet to
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Visiting China, I'm reminded once again how much better our system is--or was, under JFK or Reagan. We're a sad parody of what we used to be. If China bests us, it's because we became lazy and self-indulgent. We have nobody to blame but ourselves.
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Bloomberg teardown of Huawei Mate60 shows 7nm chip inside. That means China can also built its own fast AI processors. If SMIC can supply smartphone chips it can also meet the low-volume needs of the military.
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A senior statesman of an Asian country that still is counted as an American ally told me recently: "Kissinger is a bastard. But he looks like a giant compared to the people running American foreign policy today, because even if he's a bastard, he is sane. They are not."
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The Chinese I've met believe they are in a fight for life, with a once-in-a-millennium opportunity as well as a huge penalty for failure. They are all in, and determined to succeed. We seem to think we can flick a switch and turn China off, cost-free. We'll learn different.
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The knuckleheads who maneuvered us into a war with Russia over Ukraine are doubling down like compulsive gamblers. We're going to lose our shirts.
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Re-shoring is a charade: China exports parts to Mexico, Mexico re-exports assembled products to us. Same with Vietnam, India, Singapore, etc.
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China isn't thinking about war: It plans to lead the Fourth Industrial Revolution and leave us in the dust. That's a whole lot scarier, or should be. But we're too narcissistic to believe that China can do it. They're doing it. Now. And we can't even make enough 155mm shells.
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The real winner in the China-Iran-Saudi deal is China's BRI and especially its telecom infrastructure. The Gulf States (KSA and UAE) have embraced Chinese technology including 5G, AI-based solar power, and Cloud computing. That's key to China's soft power. US containment failed.
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The United States has gone mad.
University of Chicago students circulating a letter calling for the cancellation of John Mearsheimer over “Putinism,” “anti-Ukrainian ideology,” and spreading Russian disinformation like that there was a coup in 2014 and it included fascists.
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Ukrainian local commanders at Avdiivka radioed their Russian counterparts and asked them to take their wounded prisoners. It was not a withdrawal, but a chaotic rout, abandoning wounded and all equipment -- first time this happened in two years of war. From ranking NATO intel
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Restrict China's access to chips, and eventually you get a parallel Chinese supply chain that will compete with Western companies Chinese-style.
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Russia buys Chinese chips after US sanctions.
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India produces 1m engineers/year but 80% are unemployable. China's engineering schools award real degrees. 63% of Chinese kids go on to tertiary education vs. only 3% in 1979. Think of South Korea but with 30X the population. 6% of US students take engineering vs 33% in China.
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The Chinese have an ingrained horror of disorder. Only great distress arouses them. Per capita GDP has risen 27X since the 1979 reforms. China enjoys unprecedented prosperity. The idea that a year or two of subpar growth will elicit a rising against the present dynasty is nuts.
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China beats US for first time in global scientific papers ranking
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China graduated 81,000 materials science engineers in in 2021 vs. 3,415 in the US-- 1/24th as many. This is getting silly. That's battery design, essential for directed-energy weapons as well as EVs.
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The Muslim world was willing to deal with Israel when it feared us. The surge in Muslim emotions after Oct. 7 isn't rage at Arab casualties. It's a feeling of strength. They've tasted our blood and want more. Sadly, we shall have to make them fear us again.
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This is happening a lot faster than I thought it would.
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Goldman Sachs predicts 10% cut in Russia GDP this year, followed by 2.4% growth in 2023 and 3.4% in 2024. Trade surplus tops $200 bn as imports of Western consumer goods drop. "Putin is not going to lose sleep over this," says Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph.
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How many times have we thrown a small nation into the meatgrinder for raison d'etat? Hungary '56, Hmong in Vietnam, Czech '56, Afghans in the '80s, Kurds in Syria, now the Ukrainians. We cheer their heroic struggle, give them Javelins and Stingers, and watch them ground to dust.
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First, China was going to collapse. Now China's going to grow so fast that raw materials prices will soar and aggravate US inflation, says NY Fed.
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This is chutzpah: The US armtwists Germany into placing sanctions on Russia destroy the viability of much of German industry, and then complains that the Germans are looking for alternatives in China. Just how much of its economy should Germany sacrifice?
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Forget the babble about China's demographic problem. China has 3.5 million scientists and engineers, about as much as the rest of the world combined. That's the population that counts and it has risen more than 10X in China in the past 30 years.
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China has had a plan for more than a decade: shift to high-tech from semi-skilled manufacturing, shift exports toward the Global South, shift growth from Tier 1 cities to Tier 3-4 cities. Investment in the Global South harnesses the labor of a billion people, compensating for a
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We've traded $18 trillion of our paper for net imports during the past 30 years, living on the world's enthusiasm for our tech bubble. Manufacturing is hollowed out, workforce skills have faded, infrastructure is creaky. I'd say we have a problem.
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Every day I download 150 parameters for the Chinese market. Every one of them is trading normally. The RMB is trading in lockstep with the Japanese yen, and both are falling because US rates are rising. There's not a whiff of crisis or contagion.
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I'm hosting a webinar Nov. 28 with top industry experts from the US, Germany and China on Fourth industrial Revolution tech -- biggest thing happening in the world economy.
To register click here:
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Emergency declaration from Biden: The horse has bolted, so nail the barn door shut! China is making 7nm chips for AI processors and smartphones in large numbers, maybe at added expense, but enough to power Industry 4.0. It worked around US curbs faster than I expected.
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Our issue with China is simple: 10 million Chinese kids take the Gaokao every year, vs. 1.9 US students for the SAT. The Gaokao makes the SAT look like coloring time in kindergarten. Our kids are glued to their phones. Chinese kids hit the books for hours each day. If you want to
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The biggest German auto firm buys a chunk of a Chinese EV maker to get access to its IP, and US Congressmen say the problem is China stealing our IP. Guess China is stealing it to sell to the Germans.
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Whoops! There went Brazil. Whoops! There went Honduras. Whoops! Here goes Malaysia.
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The US cut Huawei off from US enterprise software in 2019. Huawei has announced its own version, which means it will go head-to-head with Oracle and Cisco.
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The German government quietly gave German broadband providers the OK to use Huawei components in their network, Die Welt reports. Deutsche Telekom, the largest, has insisted throughout that security issues are manageable.
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Reading Interfax (post-Communist independent news) on a VPN routed via Hong Kong--can't get it with a US IP address. This is like living in China! Nothing's allowed in major media but State Dept. agitprop, and Russian media are blocked. We're fighting for freedom, right?
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A German poll asked Ukrainian refugees whether they planned to return. % who said yes was zero. Ukraine in the best case ends up with half its notional pre-war population of 43m (actually 33m residents), a ruined economy, huge debts. We destroyed the village in order to save it.
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Li Qiang's appointment as China's premier surprised everyone but Asia Times. Li is the strongest exponent of private-sector high tech development in the leadership, and was Jack Ma's main party sponsor. Xi Jinping feints left and moves right.
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Ukraine lost 15k dead and 40k wounded in Bakhmut. That was the Russian goal, and they achieved it. Then again, Ukrainian life is cheap for the likes of Tony Blinken.
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Every player in US foreign policy is positioning for a Ukraine disaster, trying to minimize career damage. That produces utter paralysis, because the first person to break omerta will be the scapegoat. It's a bit like the Fall of France but (as Marx said), the second time as
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This is BEFORE the impact of China's $10k EV's hits the world market. China has cloned Ford's Model T idea (offer a quality car priced at per capita GDP) for the 21st century and stands to dominate the world's biggest manufacturing industry.
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This probably is the biggest economic story of the 21st century: The transformation ("Sino-forming") of the Global South by China.
Billions of people are being absorbed into China's economic sphere. Presently they are poor, so the aggregate impact is slow to register. But they
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I'd guess that 98% of Americans who have an opinion about China have never visited China. It's like a different planet. Flip through these photos and think about it:
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@michael_epps
Uh, then who's 1st in line? That would be POTUS, but since he's POTUS, he's not in line. He's there. The VP is 1st in line, Speaker is 2nd. You are confusing cardinal and ordinal numbers, just like Rebecca Goldstein in her Goedel bio.
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If we had spent 1/10th of the Forever Wars' $8 trillion on high-tech R&D, infrastructure and worker training, we wouldn't be in a panic over China. We're the most powerful country in the world. We're the only ones who can defeat us, and we're doing a damn good job of it.
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China's trade surplus is a record $800 bn a year. Countries with trillions of reserve and a trillion-dollar surplus don't have financial crises. They have reorganizations. China's property market problems are a minor accounting issue next to the export tsunami.
@GordonGChang
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For the record: I am NOT a Sinophile. I don't like the Romance of Three Kingdoms, Mencius, Chinese cuisine, Chinese music, Ming vases or Song dynasty landscapes. I'm a Westerner and I like Western culture. I RESPECT China and try to understand it without prejudice or paranoia.
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US ships are struggling to defend themselves against Houthi anti-ship missiles and drones. How do you think they would do against China's arsenal of 3,000 satellite-guided STS missiles raining down from the stratosphere, not to mention hypersonics? Asking for a friend.
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Updated with just-released April data. The shift in China's trade to the Global South is the biggest thing happening in the world economy, and a remarkable accomplishment for China. It dominates a growth market with 6 billion people. Worry about what China does right, not what it
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I find it incredibly disturbing that Gina Raimondo finds the new Huawei Kirin 9000s chip "incredibly disturbing." As a founding father of the US chip business told me, "Our government is run by idiots who have no idea how the industry works."
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The idea that the US can entice Russia to realign against China is goofy. Russia will never again accept dependence on US supply chains or USD assets. The Ukraine war has reorganized trade and finance across Eurasia. Ultimately it isolates us.
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Scott Foster is one of the world's top tech analysts and Asia Times' lead writer on chips. US tech controls are incubating a Chinese semiconductor equipment boom.
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On a bullet train to Beijing. See how fast it runs and how little it vibrates.
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Huawei spends $25bn/yr on R&D vs. $9 bn for Ericsson+Nokia. China leads by a mile in digital infrastructure in the Global South. That's why Brazil, Saudi Arabia and others lean toward China. We brought a hot dog to a gunfight.
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Bloomberg reports that "Ibuyers" of homes (Zillow etc.) flip homes directly to KKR and Blackstone -- houses never listed, homebuyers never see them. That keeps pricing homes out of the reach of Americans. Wall Street rents them out (12.5% YOY rise in rents).
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China has a robust, high-yield 7nm process that can produce AI chips as powerful as Nvidia or Qualcomm. The sanctions have failed, says Semianalysis. The US could still crack down further, but with risks.
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We have half as many machinists in the US as in 2002. The average age is 47. No wonder we can't produce artillery shells. There is a way to fix it -- a European-style apprenticeship program -- but it can't be done overnight.
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A few of us took a lot of incoming for saying this a year ago.
NEW: Sanctions imposed on Russia and other countries by the United States may risk hegemony of US dollar, Treasury Secretary Yellen says
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A Chinese analyst explains that Huawei can fabricate its Ascend 910 AI processor (competes with Nvidia) at TSMC because it is designed in-house without US EDA tools. That's key: China no longer depends on US design software.
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TSMC is delaying its US plant: "TSMC Chairman Mark Liu said construction in Arizona is hampered by a shortage of skilled workers and that the company might have to bring in experienced technicians temporarily from Taiwan. He said this would delay the start... until 2025." (WSJ)
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The convenience is amazing. I had a lunch meeting in Tianjin and a mid afternoon meeting in Beijing...the train took 28 minutes to cover 140 km. The stations are in center city and checkin and boarding take 10 minutes.
On a bullet train to Beijing. See how fast it runs and how little it vibrates.
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