David Byler
@databyler
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VP at NRG | Public opinion researcher | Formerly @washingtonpost political data journalist | Dad, people person, math person!
Joined September 2014
RT @admcrlsn: Some personal news — I am beyond excited to be formally launching my own polling firm, Zenith Research!. After over a dozen y….
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🚨🚨🚨CAREER UPDATE 🚨🚨🚨. I'm going to be a VP at National Research Group starting middle of next week! I'm really excited about it! . Much much more to come. Stay tuned! :).
Work update: I'm wrapping up my time at NPI and I'm starting a new job soon! Can't share details yet, but watch this space ;).
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Work update: I'm wrapping up my time at NPI and I'm starting a new job soon! Can't share details yet, but watch this space ;).
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One thing I do not miss about journalism . Someone being like "David, what does the data say about this?" in a news moment like, well, this.
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. it's okay to give yourself time to shower daily. Softer idea, similar direction though: pick hobbies that you can integrate your kids into. It's fun bonding!. My toddler and I cook and garden together. The one-year-old does stroller runs with me. It's great -- lots of options!.
but in general i think people should stop having hobbies and cancel their gym membership and use more caffeine and cold water and sleep less and maybe don't shower every day and instead should grind harder making things of value such as companies and children.
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Also this is just my read, based on sessions I went to and people I talked to -- not like a scientific survey of what everyone thinks or something.
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Basic vibes, as I'm reading them: . - Polls were not perfect .- We are trying to improve! But not in a self-flagellating way .- Recalled vote was somewhere between okay and very helpful .- Cost of good respondents is 😬.- AI is really useful .- Bots :(.
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People, I am at AAPOR and I am genuinely excited to be here :) . Talk to me if you see me!.
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Almost everywhere? The Hunter DeButts saga showed how little distance there is between prompt and publish for some people. And editors aren't perfect -- I would guess a lot of places have published AI text without knowing at least once.
my big AI question is which outlets are publishing ai-generated text without knowing it. it has to be happening. right? maybe outside contributors. .
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Hire Adam!. He's been super friendly and helpful to me -- a twitter rando! -- and I'm sure he'll do a great job for whoever is lucky enough to hire him first.
Hi everyone — I was laid off from my job on Friday. If you know of any open opportunities in polling or market research (full-time or contracts/consulting), please let me know. I have 12 years of experience in the industry. If you don’t, please consider reposting/sharing. Thanks!.
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You're free to believe this . You'll just eat worse food, seem like an ass and enjoy your life less.
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This mindset is really its own punishment.
Cooking is female-coded; male chefs are inherently feminine. A man shouldn’t out this much effort into his food— who even cares? It’s just food. Shut up and eat it.
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I always felt like Bush era NeverTrump neocons got very little from Dems. They flipped and got. Jeff Flake sent to Turkey?. So kind of interesting that, for reasons totally unrelated to them, there's a pro-Ukraine pro-Abundance thing forming where some kinda sorta might fit.
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"Schakowsky leaves but it's not an upstart vs gerontocracy race" is probably the template for the best outcome for Ds, whether KA wins or not. D anti-establishment blue dist challengers have been a mixed bag -> probably best for them to do more of a primary and see what happens.
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29 year olds remember the trump years, 18 year olds might not.
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One theory . Biden didn't have great approval ratings and wasn't exactly a Gen Z politician. So voters who have only seen Biden as president -> might not be left rn .
A sharp age divide is emerging within Gen Z in the latest @YalePolling data:. 🔴 Ages 18–21: R+12.🔵 Ages 22–29: D+6. The youngest voters are breaking sharply from their older Gen Z peers.
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Just going to re-share this every now and again.
Everyone was like "those RINOs aren't doing anything to influence anything" in the first trump term. now many are gone and folks we have a natural experiment on our hands.
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"tariffs are good! trade imbalances are bad! don't worry" vs "the markets are crashing"
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The strength of Abundance is that it's not trying to make people miserable . Lots of the clear electoral losers of the 2020s (inflation, extreme COVID measures, Dobbs, a possible trade-driven recession, etc) made a lot of voters (foreseeably) unhappy.
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I mean I get it . Imagine testing this idea and being wrong (i.e. being the president who doesn't try anything ambitious, expects a good midterm, still gets wiped out).
@databyler Because they know it’s gonna come no matter what they do so may as well try to maximize what they get done in their two-year window. It’s like some Greek tragedy.
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