Dan O'Brien
@danobrien20
Followers
23K
Following
5K
Media
5K
Statuses
16K
Chief economist, Institute of International and European Affairs, senior fellow at UCD. Speaker/presenter: conferences, management teams, etc. https://t.co/saKV3o9GRu
Joined July 2011
Usually it’s the economics of programmes for government I watch most closely. Now it is national security - Europe is no longer at peace. Hoping that big changes will be committed to. Ireland is almost unique in that it has abundant resources. No excuses for further neglect.
59
20
118
I never personalise, but there are exceptions. An Irish conference organiser is adding to genuine fear and uncertainty. He is doing so because he craves attention and will go to any lengths to get it. Unfollow him. Don’t respond. Starve him of what he seeks most. Unfollow.
162
296
3K
ICU capacity can’t be increased ‘overnight’. 19 months and tens of billions of euro spent on Covid!.
64
152
1K
Four Irish MEPs on rte radio news. first 25 minutes NOT discussing European security, eu legislative agenda and 100 other things impacting Irish interests. Instead they obsess about the Middle-East, and Ireland taking action some of them even admit will damage Ireland.
159
123
1K
Sinn Féin’s constitution does not recognise the Irish state established in 1922, its defences forces or its 1937 constitution. One minimum requirement for SF entering government would be for it to amend its own constitution to fully recognised the state it would control.
70
330
964
62% of Irish 25-34 year olds have third level qualifications, the highest in Europe. Publication here.
106
201
876
With Ireland's population growing more than 10 times faster than the rest of Europe and home-building stagnating, inward migration will have to be lowered if there is any chance of matching housing supply with demand. This week's column.
205
167
919
Ireland was the only EU country in which industry produced more in June 2020 than a year earlier.
25
207
794
April 2 is shaping up to be worst day in Irish economic history since September 29 2008 and December 2010 (when bailout happened). Immediate effects of tariffs will not be dramatic but longer run impact on Ireland’s economic model could well be more profound than 2008/10.
259
115
865
Alcohol prices in January rose by the highest monthly rate on record. Minimum Unit Pricing is a remarkably stupid idea at any time, but introducing it during a period of elevated inflation really takes the biscuit.
40
120
785
Ireland's daily Covid death rate was 45 times higher at peak in April than today's latest figures. The rise is not out of control. We are living with this relatively well compared to our European peers. Please keep calm.
54
176
781
Medics urging closure of most of the economy, pushing hundreds of thousands into unemployment, is not just disproportionate, it is wildly disproportionate. They risk becoming to this crash what bankers were to the last one. Consider carefully.
101
188
761
Why is @rte news not reporting who was responsible for Bloody Friday? Like marking Bloody Sunday without mentioning the British army.
70
108
701
98% of people in Ireland replied that they were happy living in the country, second highest in EU-28. Raises a question as to whether those of us in the media and on social media reflect too much negativity. To ponder in 2018.
72
295
658
Outstanding investigative journalism and sheer hard work. Plaudits Naomi. @IrishTimes deserves lots of subs on the basis of it alone. Would also suggest to that it be made free to read in time. Constituents of these people need to know what their MEPs are doing in their name.
As is now custom, Clare Daly and Mick Wallace do not respond to calls texts or emails for comment so I went to the European Parliament and found them after a vote to put all my questions to them for this piece. Daly's response asked if she stands over her PMF endorsement is here:
42
86
582
Anyone claiming that Ireland is a 'failed state' doesn't understand the term and, more importantly, doesn't know anything of the world's 200-odd other states. More interesting is why the narrative is gaining traction. Discussing in tomorrow's @businessposthq.
75
57
601
Just as U.K. cannot make trade deals with EU member states, it can’t make trade deals with individual US states. These basic mechanics of international trade should be understood by now - they’ve been in the news for well over half a decade.
EXCLUSIVE: The UK expects to secure about six trade deals with US states by the end of the year, Trade Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan says
12
179
523
Ireland and the US have almost identical reported Covid19 deaths relative to population. Broadcast media keep saying US is the ‘hardest hit’. It’s not.
79
173
533
Extraordinary how the Irish political class obsesses about a conflict over which they have no influence. They are more interested in the Middle East than the conflict on our own continent with threatens our security.
145
77
564
Germany exports to China 5x more than the UK. Both are in the EU. Why do Brexiteers blame EU for UK's limited exports to emerging markets?.
58
559
491
The @WSJ is one of the US’s most influential media and the paper of record of corporate America. When its chief international affairs journalist posts this, it is clear that MDH is damaging Ireland at a time of immense challenges/threats. Govt needs to act to stop further harm.
Ireland, whose safety is de-facto guaranteed by NATO, and which not only rides for free but also grandstands lecturing others who, unlike her, don’t have the luxury of being an island off an island off the safe side of Europe and today face an existential threat.
93
103
585
The Taoiseach is the only north Atlantic leader absent. Nato Membership is as much in Ireland's interests as membership of the EU. We got away with not defending ourselves in the last cold war. We might not be so lucky this time. Time to grow up and join ALL our neighbours,.
We can and will defend every inch of NATO territory, and we’ll do it together.
509
70
536
Foreign diplomats in Ireland and Irish abroad are perplexed by the obsessive catastrophizing about Covid in Ireland. Today's column looks at our lack of collective resilience and over-dramatisation of a real problem.
77
136
519
How Ireland not contributing to EU defence is viewed abroad. Other EU countries made sacrifices in their relations with the UK during Brexit out of solidarity with Ireland. Some of them now fear being invaded, and this is Ireland's response. Nobody likes a free rider.
Shame on Ireland - what a selfish standpoint
221
79
505
Hearing more Ireland-critical comment from both Europe and US. Latest is this editorial in the London Times. Some people are hyper sensitive to outside criticism and reasonable people can disagree on issues. But important to be aware of what others think.
170
62
548
Irish exports of tech services hit $200 billion in 2021, more than the US and India combined. This is what data centres generate, along with billions of euro in tax revenues and tens of thousands of jobs.
93
96
486
Ireland's population has grown at rates multiples of peers since 2022. An increase of this scale makes it very hard for housing supply to meet demand.
159
103
537
Demand denialism when it comes to housing is bizarre. Ireland has one of the fastest growing populations in the world - between Cameroon and Burundi in the most recent data. This is a significant factor in the price and availability of housing.
123
102
538
Irish public health spending is among the highest in the world per person. Why do medics always and everywhere claim they need more resources?.
175
50
503
Final weekly column for the Irish Independent and some personal news.
110
13
496
Great piece on the tide of illiberal leftism starting to ebb in the US. Some signs of a similar trend on this side of the Atlantic, but its self-loathing backers remain powerful in government institutions, as this Irish schoolbook depiction demonstrated.
67
63
479
Sinn Fein is the only party in democratic Europe that has a private army behind it. It's involvement in the Republic's government risks democratic degradation. Today's column.
130
133
457
Two thirds of 25-34 year olds in Ireland have third level qualifications, the highest in Europe. EU average is 43%. Explains to a significant degree why the country attracts so much foreign investment.
182
108
442
So Karen Devine trotting out the Nato/Ukraine-is-to-blame line for Putin's invasion of Ukraine on @RadioBrendanRTE. Putin/Russia are solely to blame for the invasion of a sovereign state and the killing of civilians. Stop the victim blaming.
33
50
423
The US is far from perfect, but it has contributed more to peace, liberty and prosperity in Europe over the past century than any European country. Most Irish/Europeans hold that view, I’d argue, whatever the many varieties of noisy anti-American voices might say.
97
39
427
Deaths in Ireland in August were 17% higher than the pre-pandemic norm, and the fifth highest monthly excess since January 2020. Genuinely interested to know what medical experts think about this. Data here.
130
161
435
Two of the 13 members of the European Parliament who voted against Ukraine’s invasion by Russia are Irish. To be so overrepresented in this group is not a proud moment.
These are the 13 MEPs that rejected today the @Europarl_EN resolution condemning Russian invasion of Ukraine and the 36 that abstained. Text approved by 637 votes in favour, 13 against, 36 abstentions
54
43
410
Frequently a critic of this government, but its response to the outbreak over the past 24 hours has been proportionate, appropriate and well targeted.
Ireland's 3.1 billion-euro package to fight coronavirus amounts to almost 630 euros per person—four times Germany's measures, and 30 times the U.S.
13
92
398
Nine out of ten poorest areas in Northern Europe are in the UK.
90
796
366
Extremely good news: Irish retail sales made a full recovery to pre-Covid levels in June. Perfect V-shaped rebound.
18
107
405
Dublin's tech sector is generating similar international services revenues as London's entire financial sector. Hadn't realised it was quite so extraordinary.
13
125
389
So Nphet wants lockdown (again). What is their worst case scenario if we stay at level 3/4 given international evidence, and particularly given what WHO is saying about lockdowns?. What happens after another lockdown?. Ireland is doing relatively well, as per chart.
58
117
407
The leader of the opposition, and likely future Taoiseach, is suing the state broadcaster after being interviewed on a news show, something that is highly unusual in a democracy. Then this. Chilling.
157
100
399
John Major, speaking at #iiea now, says nobody wants chaos. Revoke Article 50 with ‘immediate effect’ he urges.
21
153
348
LNG saved Europe from a real energy crisis last winter. It will play a central role in the process of getting to net zero emissions smoothly. If this report proves correct, it amounts to a disaster for Irish energy security.
Breaking: Shannon LNG plant to be rejected by An Bord Pleanála
83
71
394
The next government needs to repeal the ban on nuclear power generation or Ireland will miss out on the benefits of small modular reactors. Tech companies building them would add clean electricity to the grid, save taxpayers a fortune+cut imports.My column.
59
88
405
‘Fascism’ is a much misused and overused term these days, but an ultra-nationalist, flag-waving private army comes close.
53
41
369
No journalist has done more to expose Garda corruption than @Mickcliff. His column on issues around Sinn Fein's commitment to liberal democratic values and the rule of law is a must read.
33
129
372
Discussing Oasis ticket controversy on TV last night. Dial it down and roll with it: these are luxury goods which nobody is being forced to buy. We have bigger issues to deal with.
"If people want to pay lots of money - silly money - for concert tickets, let's not get too worried about it, nobodies forcing anyone to do this. ". @danobrien20 thinks we need to 'dial down' the outrage over Oasis tickets. @clairebrockTV | #TonightVMTV
102
23
374
Former Irish ambassador to US writing here. With US tariffs and tax changes potentially hugely damaging to the Irish economic model, enacting the occupied territories bill would be akin to shooting ourselves in both feet. And without helping anyone.
@conoraon So the OTB would have no effect on the OTs & will not provide relief to Palestine. It could weaken our economy, thus reducing our ability to aid Palestinians. It will damage relations with the USA & reduce our ability to wield influence there in favour of a 2-state solution.
74
65
391
Are people in Ireland much more interested in the Middle East than the programme for government that will affect their lives in multiples ways over the next half a decade?
119
37
383
Irish exports to the EU 26 are worth four times more than exports to Britain. The former are growing; the latter are stagnating, and have recently fallen below 10% of total goods exports for the first time ever.
25
188
333
European politicians in a near panic about the potential for war to expand across their own continent. Irish politicians on prime time TV just now arguing about their policies on a conflict on another continent (Israel-Palestine) over which they have zero influence.
Danish viewpoint.
55
56
368
Some excitable souls are talking about how the Irish government is 'awash with cash'. Today's @CSOIreland figures provide a timely reminder that public debt stood at €225bn at end 2022. Despite a decade of rapid growth it is close to a record high and 4.5 times higher than 2007.
78
111
332
A more grown up interview about immigration than has usually been the case to date in media on @VirginMediaNews now, but it gives the impression that migration is all about asylum. It’s more about work permits, which needs frank debate.
59
41
353
UK MEP said over weekend that Ireland should quit EU because UK is biggest market. He's entitled to his own opinion, not his own facts.
16
274
321
Ireland's population growth is among the fastest in world, but home-building is stagnating. Today's column advocates managing demand better, particularly the large-scale issuance of non-work residency permits.
166
89
361
Some points on Ireland's personal taxes . *Top marginal rate, 52%, is higher than Netherlands, Norway and some other N European countries. *The threshold is unusually low, which means middle and high earners pay Nordic rates. * Low earners are the lowest taxed in OECD.
39
82
333
Very strong words from a measured politician on today's speech on Brexit by UK foreign secretary. (For those not plugged into Irish politics, he is frontbench spokesperson on Brexit for the main opposition party).
Boris Johnson gave a 4,600 word national address on #Brexit today. He didn't mention Ireland, or Northern Ireland, once. He did talk of stag parties in ancient cities and eye-popping activities by British citizens in Thailand. Insulting, reckless behaviour.
3
236
296
Opposition to the backstop goes far beyond Brexiteers, as the Commons debate showed to anyone who cared to listen. Irish commenters should quit portraying it that way, and tone down the tribalism. Today’s column.
66
126
298
Ireland as a ‘failed state’ is a narrative gaining traction. It’s the result of a vestigial national inferiority complex and the importation from the wider western world of exaggerated outrage, eg gilet jaune, anarchy in the U.K., American carnage etc.
40
44
319
BREAKING.Employment was up 10,000 per month in the final quarter of 2019, an accelerating rate of jobs growth. That was despite Brexit uncertainties and low unemployment. Almost half a million increase since 2012. Pattern for the decade charted here.
26
115
318
Missed this good news: The EU is now generating more electricity from renewables than from fossil fuels.
9
61
292
The continued existence of the IRA, a quarter of a century after the peace process began, should give those thinking of voting for Sinn Fein reason to think again. Today’s column.
80
102
308
The utter naivete on display on @TodaywithClaire in relation to Russian naval exercises off the Irish coast. This is what happens when a state collectively sticks its head in the sand over decades and takes its security for granted.
44
33
312
A bit like saying that someone who doesn’t pay for electricity would be unaffected by the electricity system collapsing. NATO has been the foundation of free Europe’s security for 75 years, both for its members and non-members.
82
51
303
Good discussion of the failed state narrative on @RadioBrendanRTE. Been writing about it regularly in @businessposthq. Simple question to those who believe it: if things are so bad, why has Ireland one of the highest rates of immigration in the world?
117
55
303
Today's full-year figures on asylum applications from @EU_Eurostat show that Ireland had the joint fourth highest rate per capita in Europe in 2024, with Iceland even higher curiously.
68
84
316
Hundreds of thousands laid off this week and medic gets long uninterrupted interview slot to demand more money, and threatens strike action in the middle of a pandemic to boot. Come on RTE.
50
42
301
Latest official figures show 17 people are in ICUs with Covid in a state which spends close to one hundred billion euros annually on public services. This looks manageable. Let's stop catastrophising. #CBLIVE
30
50
300
A reminder that Ireland is bucking the Covid trend in Europe. Daily cases peaked a week ago (before lockdown was introduced). They are below the EU average (per million population) and much lower than many peer countries.
27
73
292
The @OECD's five-pager on the economic impact of the pandemic here. All countries very badly affected. Believes Ireland will be the least affected. No detail, but large tech and pharma sectors the likely reason.
23
160
284
Half of 25-54 year olds in Ireland have a third level qualification. Highest in Europe.
20
126
279
The idea that Ireland would turn down an invitation to the White House to celebrate our national day would be an act of national self-harm of historic proportions.
Some thoughts on those calls for the Taoiseach to boycott the White House in today’s @ST__Ireland and why they should be ignored.
59
18
304
Latest @EU_Eurostat figures for May show Ireland with one of the highest excess mortality rates in Europe.
90
119
279
Around 15% of people in Ireland's prisons are foreign, well below the share in the total population. This does not support claims that immigration is leading to more crime.
286
56
308
Covid deaths in the Republic of Ireland now running at 20 a day on average, which is one of the highest in the world relative to population according to Curious lack of coverage in media, and comment from zero Covid folk and others.
87
96
282
Great moment in Paris with the reopening of Notre Dame. Hopefully a phoenix moment for France and even Europe. The continent needs to get its confidence back. No chauvinism, but it’s the best place in the world to live and travel.
36
17
294
It's well known that the US has had decades of low median income growth+rising inequality. Often assumed that the rest of the rich world is the same. That's wrong-the picture is mixed. Ireland had highest income growth and biggest fall in inequality over 3 decades from 1980s.
18
77
275
Many Irish homes have been enduring power outages since Friday. The entire country would suffer outages if the single gas pipeline to Britain ceased functioning. Ireland has no gas storage and a growing share of electricity is generated by imported gas. Action needed urgently.
Ireland runs the 3rd biggest trade surplus with the US among the EU 27and also needs to diversify gas imports and beef up its military. Buying LNG and arms from the US will achieve these ends, and lessen risk of Trump hitting Irish exports. An te nach bhfuil laidir…bheith glic.
50
69
291
Ireland's reliance on Britain as an export market fell to an all-time low in 2019. Less than a tenth of export earnings now come from British buyers.
Great Britain's share of Ireland's goods trade since 1924. Last year was the first time share of exports fell below 10%.
11
132
253
Narrative of young people ‘forced’ to emigrate is as fact-free as the rural-Irelands-is-dying narrative. Please, let’s base national discussion on some sort of evidence.
94,000 Irish citizens resident in Australia in 2023, up 6,000 from before Covid in 2019, but down from peak of 96,000 in 2013. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
130
42
282
Election reporters everywhere: huge difference between percentage change and percentage POINT change. Eg, Sinn Fein got 15.2% of local election vote in 2014. Now at 9.6%. That’s a decline of 37%. It’s a decline of 5.6 percentage points.
12
58
253
Today's @EU_Eurostat figures show that deaths in Ireland in July were 16% higher than in the same month in the years before the pandemic. That amounts to hundreds of deaths. Curious how little discussion/coverage this gets.
48
109
269
Is it inherently wrong to charge for content? Is it inherently wrong to be sell food? Is it inherently wrong to provide a service others want?. Inherently bizarre question for a serious newspaper to pose.
58
20
265
Allowing the most powerful totalitarian regime in the world data access and influence in democracies will viewed with amazement in the not too distant future. Sooner or later TikTok will be shut down in all free societies.
99
44
279
All ten political leaders not talking about Irish citizens’ security, but getting passionate about a foreign conflict over which none of them can ever influence. Skibbereen Eagle stuff.
This is extremely serious. Hope leaders’ debate tonight on @rtenews asks about parties’ plans on security and defence given the utterly transformed situation in Europe since our last general election almost five years ago.
28
45
278
Just 30 years ago Ireland was a country of mass emigration, as it had been since the mid 1800s. Who would have envisaged then that people from the most vibrant country in the southern hemisphere would flock here to seek plentiful jobs and opportunities not available in Brazil.
Brazil votes! Huge queues for the official voting station on North Great George’s Street, Dublin, Ireland. Democracy in action #brazilelections #brazil #brazilindublin xxx 🇧🇷❤️
65
24
263
Ireland's spends less of its government budget on defence than any other EU member. Being incapable of deterring cyber and undersea attacks is no longer tenable. It is imperative the state does more to protect citizens and jobs. Writing on this in @thecurrency on Friday.
66
54
281
Ireland's dependence on Britain for imports has declined sharply in recent year. Value of goods sourced from the the EU26 have soared, while imports from Britain have stagnated. Brexit likely to be a factor.
16
173
239
Police in an EU member country believed a private army existed and was active, storing weapons and explosives, as recently as 2016. That private army is linked, and lionised, by the party on course to win the next election.
78
81
260
Could I respectfully suggest to @WilliamsJon that if RTE is going to headline Covid hospital numbers, more context be added. People are frightened. * The recent increase has been much more gradual than March. * At peak in April there more than 10 times more people hospitalised.
25
63
264
For 300+ years Britain has been Europe's most stable country. Since the 1940s US has been a source of stability in Europe. Now US and UK are generators of serious instability. Maybe things will settle, but it feels more and more like a real inflection point in European history.
15
71
249
35,000 young adults left Ireland in 2011. Annual emigration declined to below 20,000 by 2015, where it has stayed since. @CSOIreland figures show no upward trend. Let's base national discussion on available evidence, not anecdote.
31
48
255
The political class needs to get serious about Ireland’s interests and the pursuit of same.
Four Irish MEPs on rte radio news. first 25 minutes NOT discussing European security, eu legislative agenda and 100 other things impacting Irish interests. Instead they obsess about the Middle-East, and Ireland taking action some of them even admit will damage Ireland.
25
24
273
Is it possible that this scheme will damage the environment (thousands of resource-intensive machines in retail outlets), take lots of people's valuable time AND increase costs for consumers? .
80
35
260
In January, for the first time ever, the UK accounted for less than 10% of Irish goods exports.
13
166
225
Already talk of legal action (against the taxpayer) re exam cancellation in a time of pandemic. Those who claim there is no ‘compensation culture’ in Ireland might point to other countries where school kids are lawyering up.
28
33
247
Ireland had the second highest number of asylum application per capita in the EU in August. The UK plan to send applicants to Rwanda has been cited as a factor in Ireland's high numbers, but it had been formally abandoned by the new Labour government at the beginning of July.
47
85
265