Danny Dayan
@DannyDayan5
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Global Macro Volatility Portfolio Manager. Author of Macro Musings Newsletter. My views do not consist of investment advice.
Joined October 2022
The Force describes the dominant impact of the wealth effect. Why has the market brushed off rate hikes and every bit of bad news? Why are FCI as loose as 2021? Why was QT ineffective at tightening FCI? All explained below, and I made it public. https://t.co/mM2MjYVnAo
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I had the pleasure of joining Pahueg for a long conversation on my macro and markets outlook for 2026. We covered a lot of topics as outlined below. Don't mind my facial expression, it was fun! Hope you enjoy it!
This is my conversation with @DannyDayan5
https://t.co/tr0yYqSkFl We talk about: -Why growth suprises to the upside -Why financial conditions could get even looser -Fed‘s dilemma with inflation -How today compares to the 1960s -What his proprietary crypto model is signaling
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Stop "looking for a job" and start receiving interview requests from companies. JJ didn't spend months applying; he used Fonzi’s Match Day to go straight from an interview request to a signed offer in just 3 weeks. No ghosting. No low-ball offers.
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The guts of the equity market are telling you this is a cyclical acceleration. Past periods of outperformance of cyclicals vs defensives were in May 2023, and September 2024 and now since April 2025. The economy reaccelerated each time. Equity market knows all.
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In 1967, prime age unemployment was low but job growth stalled for a few months, and a rise in youth unemployment caused the Fed to cut 200 bps in a year despite strong GDP and business CAPEX. Sound familiar? It didn't end well then.
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Honestly, it could be preparations for possibility of war. How else to interpret all of the latest developments?
Forget about Gold for a second. When industrial metals (copper, aluminum, platinum) are doing what they’re doing, it means one of two things: Either the global economy is accelerating, or all major economies are stockpiling to prepare for possibility of war.
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Find out how is SG leading Southeast Asia’s energy transition through increased renewable financing and project development, production as well as distribution.
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This is the key difference between the Dot Com and AI CAPEX booms.
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"No inflation. We're just tweaking our reserves and buying every commodity that exists on earth" Silly kids.
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Very happy with how my crypto models have helped investors through a volatile period. No silly overlay charts, we let the fundamentals guide us systematically. Do the models see more upside ahead? What do the positioning and technical signals say? https://t.co/ZdpygK2srp
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My opinion on the NYC mayor should not matter to you. What should matter is whether you have a hedge in case it goes bad. NYC munis flat to overall index for 2 years. Ask yourself, what in his agenda would cause outperformance? What if it goes wrong?
The NYC mayor will need to submit a budget by January 16th. If you think this will be a cataclysmic disaster, then NYC muni spreads will widen a lot. Shorting the pair trade below is a good proxy and hedge for that outcome.
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Markets 2026 Outlook covers the following markets: Metals, Energy, Indices, Sectors, International Indices, Global Rates and FX. Detailed outlooks, models, technical indicators and asymmetric trade ideas all in one place. Check it out. https://t.co/WD8iAVwvzC
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If you think this market has to break because valuations are high, you’re ngmi. The Year Ahead is out https://t.co/uNHxOeasIG
lordfed.co.uk
The Year Ahead 2026
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Iran regime collapse looks to be imminent. Days, not weeks.
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Terrific note from Tracy. She made it public. Link below, and my favorite snippet. https://t.co/fEY8z7Sys0
I have left my comments on this Venezuela situation on my substack ...the post is open to all
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I don’t have an opinion on the market impacts from Venezuela and will leave that to the oil experts. This is a new, activist geopolitical regime and Trump is seen as the liberator within the country. Questions are if Iran is next and how China sees this re: Taiwan.
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Since the first rate cut, the unemployment rate is up 0.25% and total cuts are 175 bps. This is unprecedented level of cuts for such a mild rise in unemployment, only matched by 1967 and 1980. Study those two periods. I compare today to 1967 below. https://t.co/IBua5nKQAd
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You can use a complicated neutral model or keep it simple. Growth grew further above potential in Q3. Excess demand is widening, not faltering. This is inflation. Policy is loose and I don't make the rules. Good luck Fed.
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This worked well and am neutral now. Volatility events are always some of my best periods. April was 2/3 of my PnL this year as an example. If you want to follow my real time trading decisions, check out the link in my bio and join us in our daily chatroom. Happy New Year!
Let's have some fun with Silver. I shorted Friday at close, sweated it all weekend, then last night called this. So let me throw out another guess. Silver will bounce 50% of this to 75-76 range, but momentum indicators are going to turn south and the correction continues then
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Turns out one can build a reliable forecast model for MAG7 AI Capex. This will be really valuable for earnings season, and for observing any change in the trend ahead of official reporting. Excited to share it in detail in my 2026 markets outlook on Sunday.
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