Dan Gambardello
@dangambardello
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Joined May 2009
I’m here as a crypto investor, tracking my investment journey. And it’s fun doing this with you all. But crypto & money mean nothing to me. Every second of every day, I’m realizing how thirsty and hungry I am to know Jesus Christ more. This is because more & more I understand
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FED dragged their feet for so long. Policy created a long tightening + contraction cycle almost no one expected. Now the cycle shifts toward expansion…and 90% aren’t ready for what comes next. Hold a balloon under water, then watch what happens the moment you let go.
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Crypto Hits MAX FEAR…Watch This Holder Behavior NOW This exact moment is probably not the most enjoyable to post this, but over the years, these moments are the exact best times to step outside of emotion and look at data. Short-term holders are at max loss and the biggest
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This is insane. I’ve only seen move like this a few times in 8 years of covering crypto. One thing I accepted long ago: this volatility is the game. I won't say the bottom is in. But every cycle, these high-fear moments weren’t the end… They were the reset zones with the
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I don’t think many understand how big this moment is. Liquidity transmission is about to kick in after years of contraction. QT ending = long-term reversal. TGA spending = short-term shock. On top of insane fundamentals. At the confluence of record levels of fear. BULLISH!
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CRYPTO Is Crashing (Something WEIRD Is Happening...)
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Most people are staring at price right now (myself included). But the real story is happening underneath the market. FED's checking account JUST ticked down! QT is ending. The TGA is about to fall. M2 is curling. The liquidity engine that drives every major crypto cycle is
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There Never Was A 4 Year Crypto Cycle This is just my opinion, but I think selling because of a "4-year cycle" is a colossal mistake. Every major crypto rally...2013, 2017, 2020, lined up with liquidity expansion. Every crash lined up with liquidity tightening. It wasn't the
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The day before Bitcoin bottomed in the $3Ks during COVID, I told holders we’d survive it. Today feels similar. Not because the situation is the same, but because sentiment is. Fear peaks right before the story turns. We’ll make it through this, and this moment will end up
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BTW, expansion ≠ QE. Expansion = Business Cycle Expansion.
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Altcoin marketcap is back at the “it’s over” level, for the 5th time in last 3 years. Except this time, 3 years of QT ends in 2 weeks. Right now, I’d rather fail as an investor and it goes to $0 than sell right before expansion. That's just me.
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Seems every "it's all over" dip is the same. Someone in comments lets me know they're unfollowing me (thanks for letting me know!) We continue to consolidate. We bounce and sentiment shifts. If interested in data, watch my recent liquidity cycle videos and have a nice day!
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Short-term holders are definitely selling at the exact moment they historically get shaken out before upside, not at major tops. This isn’t top behavior. This is capitulation behavior. 2 weeks before multi-year QT ends...............
Bitcoin STH Supply hitting loss levels lower than the last two BEAR market bottoms but you all are going to tell me that all of X correctly flipped bearish at the cycle top???????
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Sentiment Says Crypto Is Finished. The Data Says the Opposite. Everyone is staring at the short-term fear. Almost nobody is connecting the macro. For weeks now, the loudest charts on the timeline have been calling for a major top. Bearish divergence here. Sentiment
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Most don't realize it right now, but what currently looks like the start of a new bear market is probably the end of one.
December 1st: The Fed Stops Draining And QT Ends. Last and only time this happened was September 2019. Crypto consolidated and then was about to rip. Then COVID ruined it. We never got to see that move complete. Round 2 starts in 16 days. And almost nobody is connecting
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