Cycle Investment Strategy
@cycle_strategy
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Long-term cycle, value, and technical analysis; trading & investing no investment advice, just opinions Website:
Frankfurt, Germany
Joined March 2021
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Pinned Tweet
Have a great start to the trading week guys! Just shared a new piece with the subs! Link in bio!
#silver
$SLV $VIX $DXY $SPY
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The last time Sibanye broke out of a multi-year falling wedge, returns of 900% followed - we are at the start of something big here
#sibanye
#gold
#platin
#palladium
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To put things in perspective, $SBSW is basically still at multi-year lows - a 400% gain from current levels would only take us back to Sibanyes old 2021/22 highs. With higher precious metal prices and an increasingly better-looking environment for Palladium, the stock will be
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$SBSW Q1 operating update: In the US operation they managed to reduce AISC by 28% and expanded production by 22%. New gold AISC is $2039. Also 3% higher production in PGMs in South Africa. PGM AISC increased by 9%. Production looks very solid despite all!
#platinum
#palladium
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Big inside buys at $SBSW - since our thread, four individuals bought their company stock. Sibanye´s CFO purchased the highest amount with 150.000 shares!!!
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How are things shaping up in the gold and silver sector?
At the risk of sounding like a broken clock: The fundamentals are exceptionally bullish - especially for silver. A thread (1/X) 🧵
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Sweden is in serious trouble. Their real estate market is falling off a cliff and their currency is crashing and its likely to get way worse and no one is talking about it. A thread 🧵 (1/x)
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While no one is talking about it: Palladium is up 4,7% today. One of our highest convictions are rising palladium prices as we shared with the subs a few weeks ago!
#palladium
$XPDUSD $PA $SBSW
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On the cusp of a recession, switch your cyclical commodities exposure to precious metals!
$Gold breaking out against $copper. Big signpost. This is worth keeping an eye on.
$gld $copx $gdx $gdxj
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$NEM Newmont Mining is completely crashing today. The share plunged 13% after disappointing earnings. PM Mining stocks are in complete capitulation mode. Newmont is as oversold after the sell-off today as it was last in 1987. The stock price is at the same level as in 2016. (1/X)
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$FCUUF $FCU Fission Uranium very healthy backtest of the break out zone. Working off overbought conditions and giving a nice entry. We bought the dip.
#Uranium
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$SBSW appoints head of uranium. Lets see how fast they can make progress. Will likely take a few years
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$XAG Silver. We don't know why everybody is calling the death of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. Silver is not looking too bad here.
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1/X Very interesting article in the Financial Times about $PBR today.
Here’s a thread about it 🧵:
🛢️🇧🇷 Petrobras & Brazil's Oil Ambition:
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Everyone thinks $SBSW is only a platinum producer but it is also one of the top 5 gold producers. Yes, you heard that right. And their gold production has a huge leverage to higher gold prices. We made an analysis of $SBSW a few month ago.
#gold
#platinum
Big inside buys at $SBSW - since our thread, four individuals bought their company stock. Sibanye´s CFO purchased the highest amount with 150.000 shares!!!
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Palladium is in very oversold levels on the monthly. Such phases (yellow circles) were always followed by very strong returns in the past!
#palladium
$SBSW
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We just launched our Youtube Channel! We now share our opinon, research and outlook now also on Youtube! Here is our first video about the coming
#oilrally
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We are gonna increase our equity exposure in Brazil big time. Why? A thread 🧵 (1/X)
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Sibanye is currently reassessing its uranium resources with its new head of uranium. The group has existing uranium resources of 32 million pounds on the surface at the Cooke tailings dam and 27 million pounds at their Beisa site. With higher prices and strong sector
$SBSW appoints head of uranium. Lets see how fast they can make progress. Will likely take a few years
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New piece out about $SBSW and taking a look at platinum and palladium COTs. Got some interesting informations from Sibanye´s investor relations for the subs. Whats interesting: the biggest lever for profits are palladium prices! Link in bio
#gold
#platinum
#palladium
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#palladium
up 5% on the day pushing $SBSW above the 200 MA. Lets go
@contrarian8888
100% and don't forget about Sibanyes leverage on palladium prices - we are super bullish on the metal as well
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So why is $SBSW so cheap? If you look at the correlation between Sibanye and the price of $XPDUSD, you quickly get a good idea. Therefore, we have to look more closely at the price of Palladium - at the moment the metal is still weak, but that will change, more on that tomorrow
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Since other accounts like
@contrarian8888
and
@Laz_Cap
have generously shared their work on $RIG, let's do our part. Let's see if this ship can turn around. A🧵 (1/X)
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Even though $SBSW is based in Africa and has its main assets there, Sibanye has a globally diversified resource portfolio ranging around the globe
#gold
#palladium
#platin
#sibanye
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@contrarian8888
100% and don't forget about Sibanyes leverage on palladium prices - we are super bullish on the metal as well
The last time Sibanye broke out of a multi-year falling wedge, returns of 900% followed - we are at the start of something big here
#sibanye
#gold
#platin
#palladium
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1/ 18 🌍📉 Today´s big analysis: Sibanye Stillwater - A Thread 🧵
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$SBSW with a constructive bottoming pattern after moving higher the past weeks - sitting right on support here (20MA) and RSI also still in the bullish zone.
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$SBSW executives are loading up their portfolios!
Big inside buys at $SBSW - since our thread, four individuals bought their company stock. Sibanye´s CFO purchased the highest amount with 150.000 shares!!!
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For a more greedy target one could use the last cycle high in earnings (2008) of 4,2 Bln $. With a 7x multiple you get a 14x of the current MCap. With inflation adj. even higher. $RIG
Since other accounts like
@contrarian8888
and
@Laz_Cap
have generously shared their work on $RIG, let's do our part. Let's see if this ship can turn around. A🧵 (1/X)
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The bull market in emerging markets is not a question of if, but only of when and those are the kind of investments you should focus on. We are convinced that the emerging equity markets will outperform the industrialized countries over the next 10 years. The ratio between the
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(8/8) What are we doing? We continue to accumulate positions in gold and silver miners into the weakness. Everything looks ready
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We have pointed this out before but there are big similarities between a previous explosive move of First Majestic Silver and now. Both times the stock followed a multi-year downward channel and suddenly broke out - last time this resulted in a return of almost 700% in just over
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$RIG is the kind of stock everyone calls their bk on >5% down days. This thing has huge leverage. If they make it the returns will smoke $VAL. It’s all just a question of position sizing not black and white.
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@agnostoxxx
Shipping rates are in fact up and delivery times also. Dont underestimate the secondary effects. Longer delivery times -> higher inventory needs. After depleting inventories last years this could fuel an inflationary restocking cycle to meet tamagotchi driven demand
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$PXT is an interesting case. The balance sheet is clean, margins are super high, valuation is super low. BUT they will need to invest heavily when they dont want to be out of business in 4 years. Thats their remaining mine life at the current daily production rate
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In a tweet a few days ago, we advised caution in the market. Why we believe that the bear market rally should be over for now. Time for a 🧵 (1/X)
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We agree and it´s so good to see $Silver finally move higher with distinction. However, we still need to see a break-out through the resistance formed all the way back from the last ATH. We are very close though and after that break-out nothing will stop
#silver
!!!
the perfect channel based on daily closes is broken.
now the final wicks are also taken out
clear sailing for
#Silver
$XAGUSD
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Got the feeling the gates are about to open now. Option market is suddenly pricing in big moves for silver this year. Big jump today in long dated far otm $SLV call premium. Things could get really really exciting. Positioned anyway
#silver
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$GPRK is cheaper than Parex. The value creation and growth of this company in combination with the track record of the management team for below 5 times earnings despite cyclically low earnings – insane. Also you dont have to worry about a short mine life.
#oilrally
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Executives seem to be on a selling spree lately - insider transactions are looking pretty red if you ask us;) However insider buys are often found in the commodity sector as covered before. While tech executives often sell, commodity executives like the ones from $SBSW and $GOLD
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(4/X) Also 65% of the mortgages are on flexible rates. The swedish central banked hiked to 3,75% recently. Also swedish house buyers are highly leveraged and household debt as % of gross disposable income is above 200%. Thats a stretch
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By the look of things, chances are not too bad we pump in precious metals stocks tomorrow or Friday.
#silver
$AG $SBSW
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On Monday we will buy stakes in uranium miners again. Seems like the panic of the utilities could start now. Hearing interesting stories. Charts are also setting up
#uranium
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International gold reserves spike before bullruns and gets sold off during the rally. What seems odd this time: Gold reserves dont get sold off in the current gold rally since 2015. The gold reserves just get bigger. Seems like they bet on way higher prices. Will this time be
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This might actually be what we have all been waiting for the last few years!!! Feels great to see some movement
#silver
#silversqueeze
$AG $XAGUSD
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From 5.35$ to 7.50$ in less than 2 weeks, this is exactly the road map we pointed out. Great first run - setbacks will be part of the journey though
#silver
#silversqueeze
$AG
#firstmajestic
We have pointed this out before but there are big similarities between a previous explosive move of First Majestic Silver and now. Both times the stock followed a multi-year downward channel and suddenly broke out - last time this resulted in a return of almost 700% in just over
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New nearly 10 year high in $PBR $PBR.A. What a beautiful chart. Will keep delivering with the coming
#oilrally
Before the market close we opened a new position in a Brazilian oil company.
Buy:
800x $PBR @ 11.64$ = 9312 $
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(5/X) What is the COT data doing? The COT data is perhaps the most bullish of all. Both for gold and in particular for silver. In silver, the swap dealers (smart money) are net long at a rate not seen in several years.
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$ZIM seems completely mispriced despite the expoloding freight rates and their big leverage. In the German markets the stock is up 1% on the red sea news. Putting some in the portfolio
#shipping
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With around $300 billion, the collective valuation of the Gold mining sector is currently not much larger than that of US home building retailer Home Depot - let that sink in for a second... The high Gold prices are slowly reflected in higher profit margins for producers, as we
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(7/7) In the 1990s Sweden already had a huge real estate and banking crisis and their currency crashed. They hiked to 500(!)% (yes 500% interest rate look it up) in 1992 and 7 days later they had to rescue the banking sector. Will it happen again?
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Just finished a new research piece. We just bought stocks in $GPRK. Insanely undervalued colombian o&g small cap with very low production costs, healthy balance sheet and a management team that has proven to perform. If you are interested, its free to read. Removed the paywall.
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Imagine waiting 3 years for the breakout in precious metals only to feel the need to mean revert every 2-5% move. If they are such active traders why are they sitting on bags for 3 years straight. Yes we will see pullbacks but why feel the need to play them in a bull? I think a
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Great chart from $AG! The multiyear support line gave investors in the past every time after a touch several 100% gains. Strong similarity to the movement of 2013-2016, here is a short comparison …
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(10/10) As mentioned earlier, we like the lower political risk in this play as the government could seize or tax the oil companies, but they still need the rigs to secure supply.
Thanks for reading until here!
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When we close like this, this could be the most insane bullish reversal candle I have ever seen
#silver
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(3/X) The swedish Krona lost around 20% of its value against the Euro since the peak in 2021 $EURSEK
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9 consecutive months of $Gold ETF outflows but no impact on the Gold price itself because of strong physical retail demand and central banks purchasing!
#goldprice
#gold
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(2/X) This is the average swedish house price in yoy-%- change. Prices are down around 20% since their peak in 2022. One of the worst real estate markets globally.
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#Silver
the time has come. Many were wondering why we were so lightly invested in our portfolio which you can track on our website. Yesterday we added the following positions:
$GSVR - 20,000x @ 0,355 CAD
$AG - 1,000x @ 7,69 USD
$CMB - 1,500x @ 0,155
$ABRA - 15,000x @ 0,335 CAD
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One thing experience gives you is being unbothered by gains. This is way more important than being unbothered by losses. If you religiously cut your losses you can’t fuck things up. But you have to learn to „endure“ your wins while staying on your toes.
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$SBSW is acutally one of the top 10 largest gold producers in the world. Their cost structure is quiet high so their leverage to gold is huge
$SBSW is a major gold producer and gold just rocketed from $1800 to a new all time high in 2 months.
I'd say there's a good chance $SBSW knocks Q4 out of the park vs consensus.
Platinum has also strengthened, though palladium is lagging.
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@contrarian8888
@MarginoCall
Our bar charts data(red = commercials) are looking even more bullish. Same exposure like in all important lows
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(3/3) While investors in junior mining stocks have been throwing in the towel for some time, the complete capitulation is now also taking place in the majors. Under the surface, the junior mining stocks are even outperforming the majors. Not bearish.
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(10/10) Thanks for reading until here! If you find our work helpful please like/retweet it. Thanks
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If we close like this tomorrow, it will be the highest weekly close since 2013 for silver. Tomorrow will be interesting!
#silver
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(5/X) The valuation of the housing market is still in a massive bubble. The price rent ratio is just coming off and sitting at a mindblowing ratio of above 120.
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(6/X) Out of personal stories we heard that is was usual to just pay your interest and not pay the debt itself. The common narrative was, that one can always sell at a higher price if you need to.
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(7/X)What are the charts doing?Gold bounced impulsively off the important support and is about to have a bullish crossing on the MACD.Silver also found support on an important longertm trendline and is about to get a bullish MACD crossing-though has not bounced impulsively, yet.
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The oil COTs are as bullish as it gets. Long oil is for us the most high proability trade in the coming month. Link in bio for our oil thesis or link in the pinned tweet for our video. Commercials (smart money) are expecting higher oil prices ahead. Look how they nailed the turns
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It´s getting tighter with every day, thanks for the great chart! $AG
#silver
$AG $SILVER $SIL $SLV $GOLD $GDX it doesn't happen but if it happens.....
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Dont be too quick selling your (cyclical) commodity stocks. Oil, uranium and agricultural commodities look ready for a big squeeze. The recession trade in commodities is too early. (1/2)
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A beautiful chart that puts into perspective where we are right now - we barely started yet!
#Commodities
#Nasdaq
I’ll leave this chart here.
Have a great weekend, folks.
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$Gold is looking promising! Currently, it is touching the upper resistance of its triangle and is trapped below by the 200MA. We see a break-out this week as likely.
#gold
#silver
#preciousmetals
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Are you positioned for the
#oilrally
?
1/n EIA weekly oil🛢️report
Total US🛢oil inventories are at the level 2004‼️
🛢Stocks are 50 million🛢⬇️ than 1 year ago
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(7/7) So what returns can you expect. The most comparable situation are the early 2000s. The Bovespa did nearly 13x in 5 years in USD. Just mind blowing. Thanks for reading!
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$GPRK the strength continues against a weak energy market gaining 2% in premarket. This is how revaluations start.
#oilrally
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As you guys know, we switched a substantial amount of our energy exposure to precious metals. For those of you,who want to wait for more conservative change signals here it is. $SILJ is breaking out agains $XLE. Time for a new market leader. MACD already in the bull zone.
#silver
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Completely agree! In our latest blogpost we shared our view about gold, $dxy, $tip but focused on the
#gold
COTs. They are very bullish right now! We do not look only on absolute positioning but also on roc and historic patterns in the
#COT
. All points to rally. Link in bio
"Twitter" is a sea of negativity. All I'm reading is how people have been let down by Gold "again".
Price is looking very strong to me. We are still early in this weekly cycle, lots of time for price to break through current soup and make decent ATH's way above Monday's.
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(3/X) At the same time, the chart on the weekly and on the daily shows a significant false breakout out of a bearish rising wedge. On the weekly we also see a bearish divergence. On the daily, a bearish MACD crossing.
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(6/X) On the same side, the managed money (dumb money) continues to increase its short positioning. In gold, the swap dealers (smart money) are less short than they have been for many years.
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