Latest news from VCs: It is impossible to raise money without traction. (even at the pre-seed stage)

gEDEN to my friends in Korea!

ETF explains the follow-through Correlations of BTC return vs ETF flow: 1D: 0.32 7D: 0.63 30D: 0.80 30D BTC return vs change in Coinbase M2 index: 0.21 This's also why Coinbase says the index to be a directional insight and not a precise forecast.

A simple framework to consider: M2 up + ETF inflows (broad + persistent) = rebound has follow-through potential M2 up + ETF outflows/weak breadth = macro tailwind, but no execution → price vulnerable M2 flat/down + inflows = flows fighting macro (harder to sustain)

And the correct thing to watch is not if the net-flow is positive on the daily basis. It’s if the flow regime positive and persistent? Some signals to watch: 30D net flow (trend > one day) Breadth (Whether there is over-concentration) Inflow on red days (bought the dips)

This is why the highlighted late-Sep → late-Nov window is instructive. The “transmission channel” was weak. Liquidity have been available but wasn’t being routed into BTC via ETFs in a sustained way. (Coinbase also highlighted this gap as mispriced rate cut expectation)

But if I may I would extend this data by compareing it with the ETF net-flow side by side. We can treat the M2 as a capacity and ETF net-flow as a way to see if that capacity has been deployed in the market

The core idea: rising global liquidity improves “risk capacity” and signals a rebound environment for crypto. As they stressed, this is a good "directional" signal when we look into the historical data.

What I was reading this week: Earlier this month Coinbase published their weekly research mentioning the macro tailwind and the Ethereum upgrade. Specifically how the use of their customized M2 Index is really interesting for me https://t.co/Xrnpw9IT3v 🧵:

3/ VCs joining: @clementality_ | @ivcryptofund @sebbydavies | @aquanow @hella_tifficult | @gate_ventures Leroy Lin | @galaxyhq

4/ Session 2: Pitching Practice Each founder pitched live and received direct feedback from top operators: 🔹 @stefanabnc | @AccVentures 🔹@DogeDollars99 | @Anti__Capital 🔹 @sodofi_ | @Celo 🔹 @clementality_ | @ivcryptofund Real pitch. Real feedback. Real pressure.

It's time for our annual big ideas. Here are 17 things that various a16z crypto partners (plus a few guest contributors) are excited about for what’s ahead in 2026. On topics ranging from agents and AI; stablecoins, tokenization, and finance; privacy and security; to prediction

Before we wrap this up (wink), here is a food for thought for you: If you just buy no for price <50% and buy yes for >50% 1d before resolution, this is what I found to be the performance: It is really interesting that it's the best in the 0.2-0.3 basket and worst in 0.8-0.9

This is how the pricing of Polymarket did compare to a perfectly calibrated model will be: You as a market (not sure if you feel the same personally) did a pretty good job predicting the outcome! (Congrats?)

And with that, this's how you as a market did in terms of predicting the outcome (Brier score, lower is better): As it turned out, you did the best in economics (~0.1), worst in crypto (~0.19). Polymarket pricing average is 0.1418 for 7d and 0.1696 for 1d before the resolution.

Heartbreak of the Year: (Considering the pricing of the market 1 day before the resolution) "Will XRP be above $2.50? (Oct 11)" You believed. The market believed (99.2% probability). But it didn't happen.

Top Market of the Year: "Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?" took the most traded market. It racked up $400,409,527 in volume.

Top Genre of the Year: Crypto takes the top 1 with high volume + huge number of markets. But Politics has the highest volume per market as it takes the no.2 spot. Sports has been a big market, as NBA took the lead of volume.

Over $20 Billion traded across all markets that were resolved in 2025, of ~163,000 markets. That's an average of about $120K in volume for each single market.

🚀 𝐃𝐞𝐜 𝟏𝟏 - 𝐏𝐢𝐭𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐏𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐞 3 groups, 3 styles, real feedback, zero fluff. 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐩 𝟏 >> @stefanabnc | @AccVentures 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐩 𝟐 >> @DogeDollars99 | @Anti__Capital 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐩 𝟑 >> @sodofi_ | @Celo & @clementality_ | @ivcryptofund Founders