Why is there no reference to the Triffin Dilemma when discussing Trump's tariffs? . It explains why the U.S. is caught in a financial paradox, and how this trade war - if taken to its end - will cause us to lose our status as the world's reserve currency, a 🧵. #TriffinDilemma.

@is_fusion .@PPPLab .@Fusion_Industry .@lasers_llnl .@CFS_energy .@FLFusion .@GeneralFusion .@Helion_Energy .@MarvelFusion .@proximafusion .@shinefusion .@TAE .@TokamakEnergy .@Energy_Zap .@PrimeMoversLab .@shaylekann .@AROD .@lowercarbon .@claydumas .@PreludeVC .@congruentvc.

The post includes a list of 13 other promising fusion companies, and concludes with a few recommendations to help achieve fusion electricity generation on the grid by the end of the 2030s. Always keen to hear any feedback on my perspective. #laser #fusion #energy.

I know you've heard this before: #nuclearfusion is a decade away. The article below explains why I think this time is different, and profiles @FocusedEnergy_1 , a laser confinement company I believe is well placed to finally deliver on fusion's promise.

I worry that the way the Iran strike happened: while within a 2 week negotiating window, decoy planes over the Pacific while 7 B-2 bombers flew from Missouri, first ever use of GBU-57s in battle (with 14 dropped) - will only strengthen the resolve of the Islamic world's.

The U.S. was supposed to be the global MVP, but Trump’s got allies playing better WITHOUT us. Ewing Theory in action: when the star’s gone, the team thrives. Who's the next to step up?. #EwingTheory #Geopolitics.

The EU’s eyeing CPTPP membership, a $15T trade bloc, as a hedge against Trump’s trade wars. Talks could wrap by 2027, adding 0.5% to EU GDP. 🇪🇺🌐. Allies are building new networks while the U.S. plays hero ball and tries to stat-pad.

Germany’s AfD hit 24% in polls (Jan 2024) but crashed to 18% by Apr 2024 (-6%) after Trump and Vance's outspoken (and unsolicited) support amid deportation scandals. Today, CDU/CSU lead at 30%. 🇩🇪.

Britain & India sealed a £4.8B trade deal on May 6, boosting UK car exports by 20% & whisky sales by £150M yearly. EU-India talks could add €8B in trade by 2026. Allies are dodging Trump’s tariffs by striking their own deals. 🇬🇧🇮🇳.

Australia’s Labor Party trailed 49-51% in Feb 2025 polls but surged to a 55-45% blowout win (+10% margin) on May 3, nabbing ~90 seats. Voters rejected Trump-like vibes from Liberals’ Dutton, who lost his seat. 🦘🔥.

Canada’s Liberals were 20 points behind Conservatives in Jan 2025 polls, but Mark Carney’s team flipped it, winning 44% of the vote to Conservatives’ 41% (+3% margin). Anti-Trump tariff fears fueled the comeback. 🇨🇦📈.

The Ewing Theory: a team can THRIVE when its star sits. Is the U.S. Patrick Ewing, with Trump’s chaos pushing allies to shine? Let’s cover how the world has responded with the U.S. pulling a Kawhi and sitting out. #EwingTheory #Geopolitics

RT @jennywxiao: Overcoming the design bottleneck in AI. We are excited to invest in Onlook (@onlookdev), an AI-powered web design platform….

I studied economics and trade in graduate school, and love learning about and explaining global markets using first principles, for my immigrant parents 🇹🇼. I'm sharing those thoughts here. If you enjoy this content, please follow me for more. Thanks for reading along.

Bottom line: The large, growing cash-futures basis trade, driven by leveraged hedge fund positions, poses risks of market disruptions & liquidity issues. Rising federal debt & deficits amplify this by fueling trade growth & Treasury supply pressures.

The risk grows with increasing Treasury supply from deficits or Fed quantitative tightening, which can depress Treasury prices (hurting the long leg) & stress repo funding as dealers have limited capacity. This could disrupt liquidity & repo intermediation.

The basis trade is ~$800B, part of $2T in prime brokerage balances. With US government debt continuing to grow, this trade will likely expand. But it creates systemic risk - during shocks, these leveraged positions must be unwound via capital-constrained broker-dealers.

But what happened over the last 24 hours? When markets crash, like in Mar 2020 & in the past 2 weeks, the basis trade becomes a problem. Banks rush to exit as balance sheet gets scarce, leaving hedge funds unable to roll over positions. They liquidate by selling cash Treasuries,.

The basis trade: Hedge funds bet on the price difference between cash Treasuries & Treasury futures, going long the cash bond & short the futures contract. Financed via the repo market, profits come from the price spread minus financing costs. Cheap financing costs for.

First, the scale: This chart shows leveraged funds' short positions in Treasury futures reaching nearly $1.2 trillion by Jan 2023 - the basis trade has been steadily building since 2017, and until yesterday was at unprecedented levels.

There is a lot of coverage on what the basis trade is - great analysis from Torsten Slok shared below. I'm going to focus less on the mechanics and summarize (a) what triggered the unwind, and (b) the basis trade's relationship with rising federal debt and deficits you may not.