The design imperative for intelligence environments.

Today we share the preprint of our pilot study, A Horizon Scan of Global Catastrophic Risks (which is also the first phase of the Odyssean Process). https://t.co/VPaYuiEGwy

Why Homeland Security must embrace strategic foresight.

Many insights for problem framing and analysis in this article offering a complex systems model of evidence combining three types of evidence with the three dimensions of complex systems.

Rethinking expertise in the Age of AI.

The evolution of strategy consulting.

Most executives assume that if they plan thoroughly, a strategic path will reveal itself. But that won’t work today. What will is paying attention to two questions: “What forces are shaping this situation?” and “How should we respond?” Specifically, it means considering a

Using AI as a new way of 'seeing' the world.

Challenges to digital sovereignty.

AI investments are exploding, but enterprise returns remain mediocre. The core issue? Leadership deploys intelligence as if it were automation. But intelligence — human or machine — can’t simply be inserted into workflows; it must be architected into environments. Most

“Leverage points” is an important principle in implementing change. By identifying the leverage points within a system where small changes can have a large impact, change leaders can target those points & make changes that can have a cascading effect throughout the entire system.

Decoding the competing forces that are impacting their organisations can help leaders see where to focus their attention.

The latest @theISRM Global Risk Report (Sep 25) has some interesting observations (pp.23-30) on the links between risk modelling and strategic foresight.

The State of Corporate Foresight study shows that leadership is both the biggest enabler and the biggest bottleneck when it comes to turning foresight into real impact.

Four of the top 10 fastest shrinking countries in the world are located in the Pacific.

The concept of the Minimum Viable Human (MVH) offers a fresh perspective on how to balance AI efficiency with creativity, empathy, and genuine human connection in teams.

How CEOs are responding to geopolitical uncertainty.

I've established a horizon scanning community as a private group on LinkedIn. Join and participate for free at

Another swing through the Pacific - my last for 2025 - working with strategic analysts across the Vanuatu Government and the Pacific Fusion Centre in Port Vila. Key areas of focus on this trip are problem framing/reframing, dissolving problems, and surfacing opportunities.

Horizon scanning to the rescue - if your risk register doesn’t provoke discomfort, it’s incomplete, and if your future looks smooth and linear, it’s probably fiction.