@GreekGamblerPM check this novel mechanism for providing liquidity on Prediction markets

@SemioticRivalry check this out on providing liquidity in PMs

@neveresleep you're into providing liquidity on Prediction Markets - check this thread

Limit orders would enable automatic withdrawal once the range is breached, and it's something I hear the team is cooking up.... It would permit you to automatically lock in the discount to Polymarket (and maybe then Arb it)

All scenarios represent better odds assuming Polymarket to be fair market value Each requires me to withdraw liquidity, which bluff permits me to schedule for 12:45pm Sunday

If users buy my Pats tokens, we go back >47% and if I withdrew I'd end up with only Bucs tokens. It'd be like as if I purchased Bucs tokens at 53% Bucs win probability vs 59% on Polymarket, or a nice 6% discount (+ trading fees collected!). <37% I'd have Pats at a 5% discount

I don't own those tokens, those are the tokens I would receive if I removed my liquidity. As users trade against my position, my ratio of tokens will adjust. And as long as the trades are within the 37%-47% range, I collect trading fees. Possible outcomes are:

If TB wins, payout = 62x2 = $124 If NE wins, payout = 38x2 = $76 By Polymarket odds, my expected payout = (124*58%) + (76*42%) = $104, which is >$100!! Of course, this assumes nobody trades against my position, which is where things get interesting

I set my liquidity position midpoint at 42% Pats = Polymarket odds, +- 5% (37% - 47%) You can view the transaction here: https://t.co/Jl6EE0uoVk You'll notice I got ~62 TB tokens and ~38 NE tokens in exchange for $100. Each token resolves to $2 if the team wins

How I'm providing liquidity on the Pats-Bucs game on @CallMyBluff_io at better-than-market odds Pats were favored on Bluff at ~56% vs. 42% on Polymarket Bluff markets are concentrated liquidity pools, meaning liquidity providers earn fees on trades within their % range

Bluff is now live on @arbitrum. The first AI-powered prediction market that leverages @Uniswap v4. Where belief becomes liquid, liquidity deepens, and markets work smarter. Get in now: https://t.co/5DnbyR0Dx7

These are simply my thoughts, and I don't know for certain how Bluff LP mechanics will work, but based on some hints (such as using Talos for oracles) I hope it is! I think this could be extremely powerful

Talos may create such oracles and Simmi might use the data to adjust its LP position, effectively concentrating liquidity at 'mid-market,' and efficiently using its capital to earn fees on user trades (bets)

Odds are constantly shifting for events, and depending on the event, oracles may fetch data from sports books, market prices, social sentiment, or other prediction markets

Say you have a uniswap V3 style concentrated pool for a belief market. A tic is maybe 1% belief or 5% belief for example. +/- 1 tic you earn fees as an LP

I see potential for extremely liquid belief markets leveraging the prowess of the Emp team in AI agents, and here's how. *** This is speculation and has not been disclosed to be the mechanics

Bitcoin's greatest strength is it's greatest weakness. 21 million

The retweet is cool but more importantly did you read the whitepaper that dropped today?

8% APR against my punk vs. 7% avg 30y mortgage after my loan was auto-renegotiated twice in a bidding war for my loan Things you would never see in TradFi - well done @gondixyz @SignoreGondi https://t.co/xhXsjIlijO

Borrowed against my punk for this - it's a stepwise improvement in prediction markets, leveraging both defi rails and AI. Pumped