3) Casey somehow losing Latinos by double digits in the LV screen (goes from Casey+5 RV to +2 overall), continues to suggest big assumptions about the type of people pollsters think show up in Nov. Which, coincidentally, aligns with least likely voters being pro-Trump. (2/3)

I’m grateful to Siena for doing this poll and am happy with them weighing those regional subgroups, which is precisely why some of those numbers smell fishy to me. It’s still a long way to Election Day. Let’s see if this continues in September (I suspect not). (3/3)

@blockedfreq absolutely think the poll is underestimating Biden’s support in Philly, but it’s fair to suggest that Trump will at least swing the county a little bit to the right and that would be a reason for why Trump is win competitive despite his diminishing support in the collar counties

@scott_kernen I have every expectation that Trump will gain a little ground in Philly. It’ll be a tough election, but ultimately, I feel that SEPA math is too much for him to overcome. That could all change, of course.

@blockedfreq Philly was 81-18 Biden in 2020. I simply do not buy the idea that there’s been a 40 point rightward shift in that area in just 4 years.

@willmduff Over 20-30 years, sure. I would even buy it being 75-25 next year. But 54-30? No.

@blockedfreq I live in the Philly suburbs. In 2016 and 2020, a substantial minority of my neighbors were displaying Trump signs and flags by this point in the year. This year there’s not a single Trump sign or flag to be seen, even within a few miles. I’m actively looking for them: none.

@blockedfreq Suburban woman in the suburbs of every major city in the USA,will overwhelmingly vote for President Biden in November, based on the abortion rights issue

@blockedfreq The election will come down to 1. Do the burbs go farther left 2. How far right does Philly swing (a collapse in the black vote would be unprecedented but if Trump is getting 30% in the city that would be a red flag also) 3. Does Trump gain anymore from the rural and two swing…

@blockedfreq You’re right. Everything is fine. Don’t change a single thing. 👍

@blockedfreq Forgetting the Jewish vote in Philly? A NY Siena poll in a February had Trump winning the Jewish vote 53-44. There are 400,000 Jews living in Pennsylvania and most probably live in Philadelphia area. At least 200,000, sway a quarter of the Jewish vote to Trump more than 2020.

@blockedfreq What in the heck is going on? R primaries show Trump losing 10-20% of actual R voters but Polls are showing a massive realignment and Biden's slide toward collapse. Both of these cannot be true at the same time.

@blockedfreq I just can't see a world where Nevada shifts 13 points to the right.

@blockedfreq Will any of the people hyperventilating about this one round of polling as absolute fact ever return to apologize for overreaction?

@blockedfreq Thank you for your notes on the poll.

@blockedfreq It would require those primary numbers to be wrong or a shift of 40 points in a few weeks. Votes cannot be wrong so …

@blockedfreq I wonder if there's a particular backlash among the large Black Muslim community in Philly? Didn't show up in the primary though.

@blockedfreq Nyt beef w Biden is clouding this poll. Trump is losing voters to Haley. This will not get better for Trump. At best this poll lasts a week.

@blockedfreq The poll is registered voters. That screen has been overly friendly to Trump since the new year.

@blockedfreq Trump will get 30% in Philly and 40% in NYC