There are about 100K more requested VBM ballots than at the same time in 2023, the last Supreme Court election. Vote patterns have shifted since then, but a less blue EV than '23 and bluer than '24 is the current status. 3 seats are up for retention this year - very important!

📊 2025 PA General Election - VBM Week 1 🔵 DEM: 53,847 (8.2% returned) 🔴 GOP: 15,425 (6.4% returned) 🟡 IND: 5,185 (5.9% returned) 📈 Current Requests # and % 🔵 655,888 / 66.5% 🔴 242,508 / 24.6% 🟡 87,920 / 8.9% At this time in '24, the request split was 60-28-12.

Some fun Q's from @FandMPoll in PA. 🟡 Do you think Congress has given up too much power to POTUS? (60% Y / 31% N) 🟡 Do you think the courts have given up too much power to POTUS? (56% Y / 34% N) 🟡 Do you think POTUS is keeping to his constitutional limits? (34% Y / 64% N)

🚨 New @FandMPoll of PA out this AM. 🗳️ 2026 Generic Ballot 🔵 DEM: 45% (+5) 🔴 GOP: 40% 🔨 Approvals (middle # is "fair" job) Gov. Shapiro: 51/25/15 Pres. Trump: 41/8/50 OBBB: 40/51 🏛️ SC Retention Election (Yes/No/IDK) Donohue: 31/27/43 Dougherty: 30/19/51 Wecht: 25/21/55

Of note - PA EV patterns have changed considerably over the years. For instance, the final pre-ED request split in '24 was D+22. In '23, about D+49. More R's willing to vote early + some D's went back to in-person. But ratio of EV/ED has been pretty steady overall.

📊 Pennsylvania - 2025 General Election - Day 1 EV 📥 Current Returns 🔵 DEM: 15,761 (82.1%) 🔴 GOP: 2,156 (11.2%) 🟡 IND: 1,290 (6.7%) Of the 940K ballots requested thus far, the 2-party split is ~D+42. At this time in '24, it was D+35. What will it look like this year? TBD.

Something to chew on about Fetterman’s dismal Dem approval ratings - it’s not solely b/c of his public positioning. He hasn’t been maintaining key base relationships and it shows. The angle he used to get to the Senate now hinders him as he plays “how to get primaried 101.”

I know it’s +8 for Fetterman, but once again, I am not paying for the edit function.

🚨 @QuinnipiacPoll of PA - Hypothetical H2Hs Gov. ‘26 - 1 🔵 Shapiro: 56% (+17) 🔴 Mastriano: 39% Gov. ‘26 - 2 🔵 Shapiro: 55% (+16) 🔴 Garrity: 39% POTUS 2028 🔵 Shapiro: 53% (+10) 🔴 Vance: 43% Shapiro has 58-28 (+30) favorables while Vance has 43-47 (-4).

🚨 @QuinnipiacPoll of PA - Approvals 🔵 Shapiro: 60-28 (+32) 🔴 Trump: 43-54 (-11) 🔵 Fetterman: 46-38 (+12) 🔴 McCormick: 39-35 (+4) The kicker for Fetterman is that his upside is coming from Republicans approving of him 62-21 versus Dems disapproving 33-54.

Notwithstanding the time I almost hit a cow in Lancaster, the eternal struggle of demonstrating to PA farmers that they can’t have their cake and eat it too continues. It’s a 2+2 equation, but somehow it’s everyone else’s fault. 🤷🏻‍♂️

The GOP: “Hey, we’re going to maximize political gain by attempting mid-decade redistricting.” Dems: “This is an abuse of norms and is not something we typically support, but we won’t unilaterally disarm and let you punch us in the face.” Pundits: “It’s ALL DEMS’ FAULT!!!”

The best way to characterize her entry into the governor’s race is to possibly blunt the worst case scenario for the GOP if it ends up being a pretty blue year. Mastriano = bottom falls out. Garrity = there is a bottom (somewhere).

Run, Doug, run!!!

She very nearly had Perry in 2024 - the environment only had to be ~1 pt bluer and she would’ve won. She’s probably the only person who can cut into York margins that deeply compared to other Dem candidates due to her locality. She has a pretty good shot in a blue midterm!

Some new statewide numbers on @SenFettermanPA courtesy of @SusquehannaPR. 🟢 Approve: 41% 🔴 Disapprove: 37% 🟡 Don’t Know: 22% Amongst Parties: 🔵 DEM: 40% approve / 39% disapprove 🔴 GOP: 45% approve / 37% disapprove Bonus: 43/48 underwater in Philly. 713 LVs, 6/17-6/21

Shapiro: “Hey, I don’t agree with the tariffs.” *Firebombs mansion w/ planned murder.* “Both SiDesssssssssss!!!”

While I suggest caution given that heavy Dem overperformances were typical in '23-24 despite what happened last Nov, flipping a seat like this is crazy stuff, especially with this kind of turnout. Even more so since D's flubbed some seats in the State Senate last cycle.

Here’s the rub - rolling over just tells the GOP that they can do whatever they’d like, including cutting Dems out of negotiations + skipping town and they will always cave. It’s more than a bad CR at this point, what with half the government already shut down or cut anyway.

For some context, he won Northampton in his last race in 2021 by 12 while the top of the Dem ticket did so by ~2. He was running against an absolute psycho/nutjob, though. Now we wait to hear what Wild says…