Joshua Smithley
@blockedfreq
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Aviation enthusiast w/ degrees in Aviation Management & Airline Operations @ Purdue University. Election junkie. #Pennsylvania elections guy & data analyst.
Joined July 2019
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I don't think people understand the massacre Republicans suffered down-ballot in PA tonight.
Obviously, PA SC was the focus and Allegheny had specific local factors, but Dems swept almost everything in winnable races from school boards, commissioners, etc. Especially in SEPA.
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Slight step aside from PA to give a special shoutout to Tim Ryan. He may have lost, but he single-handedly allowed D's to gain a clean sweep of all 5 gettable congressional seats in OH (wtf?)
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🚨 New
@SusquehannaPR
poll is out!
*POTUS*
Biden: 46.8%
Trump: 39.3%
Biden+7.5
*PA SEN*
Casey (D-Inc): 45.9%
McCormick (R): 42.1%
Casey+3.8
Told you guys it’d be spicy. 👀🔥
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@jackcalifano
I'll take another tweet that overtly simplifies and ignores the current reality for 500, Alex.
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Whatever's left of the remaining ballots for
#PASen
broke by more favorable margins than I expected.
Fetterman: 51.2
Oz: 46.4
Fetterman wins by 4.8 points. He's now on track to be one of the best D performing candidates in the five battlegrounds and he's not even an incumbent!
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New
@SusquehannaPR
poll of PA is out! POTUS toplines as follows.
🔵 Biden: 50%
🔴 Trump: 45%
First time Biden has cracked 50% in a PA poll recently. Regional distributions as follows - you can see why this is the case - even slight erosions in Philly + rurals can't match SEPA.
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Race call: Summer Lee (D) defeats Mike Doyle (R) in PA-12, an Allegheny-area district.
Sorry, not the call I know you guys were expecting. :)
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I hope that fickle Dem voters understand how lucky we got with this debt limit deal, particularly the ones in NY and CA. Those people cost us the House because they couldn't be bothered to show up and match parity with the GOP. Meanwhile, Dem voters in PA, MI, etc. did their job.
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With every county in PA now fully certified, this is the final breakdown of
#PASen
.
Fetterman: 51.3% (2,751,012)
Oz: 46.3% (2,487,260)
Fetterman wins by 5 and cements his place as the best-performing Dem battleground candidate this cycle, beating out Kelly and Warnock. (1/2)
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🚨 New
@QuinnipiacPoll
out for PA today.
*POTUS*
Biden: 49%
Trump: 46%
*PA SEN*
Casey: 53%
McCormick: 43%
Both Biden and Casey improved over the last Quinnipiac poll. Third poll with Casey over 50% and yet another one with him outrunning Biden by a fair amount.
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It’s pretty simple. Fetterman gave the most violent swing state thrashing of any candidate in a *GOP-friendly* midterm and is seemingly immune to any attack thrown at him. Republicans are being beaten at their own game and can’t handle it. Hence them lashing out like children.
For some reason, Fetterman really upsets Republican pundits.
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FWIW, today’s NYT/Siena PA poll rests on some key metrics.
1) Biden wins Philly 54-30, again suggesting a generational collapse in the black vote.
2) Suburbs shift right from ‘20 despite trending left in every cycle since then, as recently as a few months ago.
(1/3)
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Over back in PA HD-139, just about all of the vote is in and the Republican wins 58.3% - 41.7% (R+16.6), marking a Dem overperformance of a little over 11 pts in this Trump+28 district - probably 10-ish in the end.
This is an almost entirely rural district too. Absolutely wild.
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@ettingermentum
I used to live in her district during the 2022 elections. While I of course was focused on PA, it was pretty clear that she wasn't going to lose. Let me put it this way - she's so well regarded that I had two nonpolitical people, unprompted, tell me about a bridge she funded.
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John Fetterman has officially been sworn in as the newest senator from Pennsylvania. Look at how much he towers over everyone else. A distinct first impression, indeed.
Congratulations, Senator!
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Race call: Matt Cartwright (D) wins re-election in PA-08, defeating Jim Bognet (R). With that, Dems keep their entire PA delegation intact and even gained a few members (looking at you, Fett!)
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Projection:
@HeatherBoydPA
defeats Katie Ford in HD-163, ensuring that Democrats hold onto their one seat majority in the PA House.
(Early splits are in and Ford is not making up that kind of deficit with what's remaining.)
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I cannot understate what a massacre this is. Easily the biggest blowout overperformance in any PA special since I started covering elections here.
And reminder, this is a SEPA/suburban seat. Respectable 25% turnout too given the situation.
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😂 Gold. There are so few Dems who are as good at this as he is. Easily the point man for pushing back on GOP B.S.
Relatedly, it’s incredible how much he’s recovered. This stuff is what he used to do all the time before he started his Senate campaign and during the early stages.
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With this confirmation, the District of Puerto Rico is flipped from 3D-3R to 4D-3R, giving Dems an outright majority on the court again.
Fetterman's only been in the Senate for a month and he's already helped flip two courts. Elections matter, folks.
Confirmed, 54-45: Confirmation of Executive Calendar
#9
Gina R. Mendez-Miro to be United States District Judge for the District of Puerto Rico.
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Yet another in-house PA firm has decided to release some polling today (Commonwealth -
@Liberty4pa
). They're a GOP-leaning group.
🦅 POTUS
🔵 Biden: 44%
🔴 Trump: 41%
Biden+3
🏛️ PA SEN
🔵 Casey: 47%
🔴 McCormick: 30%
Casey+17
↔️ Generic Ballot
🔵 DEM: 43%
🔴 GOP: 37%
D+6
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The confirmation of Cindy Chung to the Third Circuit ends years of a Republican majority, flipping the court from 8R-6D to 7D-7R.
This was also a milestone for Fetterman, being his first confirmation vote for a judicial nominee. Fitting that it involves the court overseeing PA.
Confirmed, 50-44: Confirmation of Executive Calendar
#5
Cindy K. Chung to be United States Circuit Judge for the Third Circuit.
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Time for
#PASen
afternoon numbers with some tea or whatever drink strikes your fancy. We looked at the issues Fetterman won, but what about demographics?
Dems: 94-5
GOP: 10-90
Independents: 58-38
1st time midterm voters: 62-34
Winning indies by *20* and 10% of GOP? Lmao.
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Fetterman currently doing better than Biden by about 4 pts in Elk County with just about all of the vote there in.
This is what I meant when I said he's favored precisely because he's able to do stuff like this.
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🚨 Dems score massive net registration gains of thousands in PA this week, driven by a surge in the following population centers.
Allegheny: +184
Delaware: +147
Montgomery: +149
Philly: +1,420
None are typos. The GOP's deficit in those areas continue to grow.
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My two cents on the Biden special counsel thing - this feels a lot like Fetterman debate 2.0 and lord knows most people on Twitter badly misread that situation.
Anyways, it’s been baked in for a while now irrespective of the truth. Changes little, if anything, in PA.
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To recap:
1) Dems not only keep the Senate, but are poised to gain a seat.
2) Dems gain a net of 2 governorships.
3) Dems make gains in state legislatures across the country.
4) The GOP has a narrow House majority at best with a resulting clownshow.
Are we tired of winning yet?
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🚨 February's
@FandMPoll
is out!
*POTUS*
🔵 Biden (D-Inc): 43%
🔴 Trump: (R): 42%
Biden+1
*PA SEN*
🔵 Casey (D-Inc): 47%
🔴 McCormick (R): 35%
Casey+12
Last F&M had Casey up by 7. It's the second poll showing McCormick *losing ground*. QPac's was Casey+10, up from +6.
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The more I sift through precinct reports as I create performance maps for
#PASen
, the more it cannot be understated how Fetterman's 5-point win doesn't do justice to the overall situation. Oz was so savagely beaten in areas that should've been easy margins for generic R nominees.
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Forest County is also just about all in.
Trump 72-28
Oz: 66-32
Not looking good for Oz. He's finished if this pattern continues in the rest of the rural counties. Still too early to tell.
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In other news, water is wet. People are welcome to be upset, but almost nobody covered his 2022 campaign as much as I have and none of this is a deviation from that. The fervor of partisanship and oppo ads masked some of this.
And no, he’s not the next Sinema. That’s ludicrous.
NEW: John Fetterman breaks with the left — fiercely supporting Israel and endorsing talks for tougher immigration laws.
“I’m not a progressive,” Fetterman tells
@NBCNews
, brushing back critics.
He’s hitting Dems for a double standard on Santos/Menendez.
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It's still early, but a pattern is developing statewide. Trump is struggling heavily to clear 60-65% of the EV in a lot of the early reporting counties, mostly the suburban ones. Biden's taking ~95% of the vote easily in those.
Reminder: VBM went out after Haley dropped out.
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Happy Mehmet Monday!
Today is the last day that Pat Toomey (R) represents PA in the Senate. John Fetterman (D) is scheduled to be sworn in shortly after noon tomorrow once the Senate convenes, ending over a decade of split-party representation in the body.
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#PASen
Philadelphia County Results
Fetterman: 82.6% (412,841)
Oz: 15.7% (78,408)
Trump did 3 points better than Oz here, which is amusing. There are some precincts near the city center where Fett got 98-99% of the vote; Oz didn't even crack 1%. So much for his "appeal" there.
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#PASen
ALLEGHENY COUNTY RESULTS
Fetterman: 368,873 (63.3%)
Oz: 200,632 (34.9%)
This map is titled "Destruction of the Allegheny County Republican Party 2022 - Colorized."
Oz was so thoroughly destroyed here that Fetterman flipped quite a few Trump precincts. Comparisons TBD.
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Thanks to PA's unusual # of in-state pollsters, we currently see a divergence between them and national firms.
In-State Pollsters Average
🔵 Biden: 44%
🔴 Trump: 41%
Biden+3
Out-of-State/National Average
🔴 Trump: 46.3%
🔵 Biden: 44.5%
Trump+1.8
So... which is it? 👀
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Projection: Democrats regain control of the PA House of Representatives, ending a few months of temporary GOP control over the chamber.
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Happy Fourth (of April), and with it the release of yet another PA in-state poll from
@FandMPoll
.
🦅 POTUS (H2H)
🔵 Biden: 48% / 🔴 Trump: 38% (Biden+10)
🦅 POTUS (w/ 3rd parties)
🔵 Biden: 42% / 🔴 Trump: 40% (Biden+2)
🏛️ PA SEN
🔵 Casey: 46%
🔴 McCormick: 39%
Casey+7
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The ramifications of the PA HD specials are enough that I'm going to have to write an article about them. This'll take a little while.
Let me put it this way - it's one thing for specials to be weird, but you should not be outrunning *Shapiro* by 5-10% in all of them. Good lord.
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Philadelphia County at the 9:30 mark:
~105,000 in person votes cast + ~100,000 mail in ballots; ~250,000 votes so far. We're at 45% of 2018 turnout, ~33% of 2020.
Don't ask me how I know. I have my ways.
Very interesting turnout numbers in Philadelphia County so far...
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Good morning! Here's some interesting numbers from
#PASen
exit polling where Fetterman won the following categories.
Abortion: 78-21
Crime: 51-49 (the fact that a D candidate won on crime is a big LOL)
Honesty and integrity: 62-36
Women: 58-41
Healthy to rep PA in Senate: 51-46
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All I'll say is this - if we go into 2024 and Biden's approvals remain at those levels, Dems retain 2022 persuasion or better, and their prez-year voters show up, the GOP is very f*cked, and that would be putting it mildly.
👀Joe Biden has a positive approval rating among registered voters for the first time in years, per the latest NPR/PBS/Marist Poll.
49% approve / 45% disapprove
2/13-15, 1210 RVs, mixed mode, ±3.5
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Doug Mastriano versus Bob Casey? Be careful what you wish for, because it certainly looks like the former is thinking about it. 👀
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Senator Fetterman (D-PA) has introduced/co-sponsored his first bill, which is to regulate assault weapons and stipulate that the right to bear arms is not unlimited. This follows his pledge on the campaign trail last July to ban military-grade weapons.
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Looks like Senator Fetterman will be released from the hospital later today. All of the tests on him seem to have come back clear, as far as I know.
FYI: For anyone with a medical history and/or disabilities, exercising caution is always safer. Doesn't mean there's a problem.
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Race call: Susan Wild (D) wins re-election in PA-07, defeating Lisa Scheller (R). Extremely close and was decided by 5K votes, but she pulls it off again.
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I’m grateful to Siena for doing this poll and am happy with them weighing those regional subgroups, which is precisely why some of those numbers smell fishy to me.
It’s still a long way to Election Day. Let’s see if this continues in September (I suspect not).
(3/3)
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🚨 ALLEGHENY FIRST RESULTS (VBM)
🔵 POTUS - DEM
Biden: 70,333 (91.4%)
Phillips/Write-In: 6,595 (8.6%)
🔴 POTUS - GOP
Trump: 9,411 (60.8%)
Haley/Write-In: 6,064 (39.2%)
🟡 PA-12 Primary
Lee (Inc): 22,209 (55%)
Patel: 18,029 (44.7%)
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*Average national firm releases a Trump+5 PA poll*
People: OMG, wow! Biden is toast.
*In-state PA pollster drops Biden+5*
People: FAKE POLL. Samples don’t make sense!
Folks, you can’t keep doing this. Lol. Be grateful that in-staters are nice enough to be pretty transparent.
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🚨 Dems land their prize recruit in PA SD-15, one of the three seats needed to flip the State Senate. It’s a Biden+15 seat, so it was already a near guarantee flip, but Kim is possibly the best recruit you could get for it.
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In the aftermath of the PA House/Senate specials, tonight's VA-04 results, and other races, Dems have been overperforming on ridiculous levels. Whether or not they're indicative of larger patterns, it's safe to say that the GOP is in the "find out" phase of the new Dem coalition.
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Philadelphia County at the 3:30 PM mark:
~275,000 votes cast, ~395,000 total with mail-ins. We're now at about 72% of 2018 turnout and have officially surpassed the total raw sum of all votes cast in the county in 2014.
Philadelphia County at the 2:30 PM mark:
~240,000 votes cast, ~360,000 total with mail-ins. 65% of 2018 turnout and we're on the verge of crossing the entire raw vote total cast in 2014.
This is not a 2010/2014 situation, that much is abundantly clear.
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3) Casey somehow losing Latinos by double digits in the LV screen (goes from Casey+5 RV to +2 overall), continues to suggest big assumptions about the type of people pollsters think show up in Nov.
Which, coincidentally, aligns with least likely voters being pro-Trump.
(2/3)
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🌟 Some more particularly revealing data from the Commonwealth poll:
*Favorables:*
McCarthy: 30-51 (-21)
Jeffries: 34-29 (+5)
GOP: 39-58 (-19)
DEM: 48-49 (-1)
Supreme Court: 43-50 (-7)
If this bears out next year, the GOP is probably cooked on the federal level in PA. (1/2)
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This flew under the radar given the POTUS numbers, but SP&R did poll the PA SEN race as well.
🔵 Casey: 48%
🔴 McCormick: 42%
Casey+6 (up 2 from Jan)
Casey is consolidating quicker than I thought. His average is now closer to 50% than at this same point in ‘18.
Remarkable.
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Lackawanna County is nearly fully reporting.
Fetterman: 56.9%
Oz: 40.9%
Fett's doing better than Biden by a few points here.
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Conor Lamb would have made this a 1 pt race in either direction. I can promise you that he’d significantly underperform Fetterman, especially with being stacked up against a candidate (Oz) who’s far more similar to him in vibes and approach to PA demographics. True tossup.
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I hope you're ready to delete your account (spoiler: you probably won't.)
My guy, everyone wants them to hold the House as much as you do, but it's not fair to hardworking data analysts on here to make those sweeping claims without providing data to back them up. (1/2)
My House projection hasn't changed. When all the votes are counted, Democrats will hold the House with 219.
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About Fetterman's situation - had he not been at the epicenter of the highest profile Senate race in the country, he wouldn't be getting this kind of attention. None of this is anything new for many senators.
And if you think this will hurt him, think again. PA is behind him. 💪
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Allegheny dropped a pretty large batch of mail this evening (~13K votes), allowing them to cross 100% of 2021 totals. This cleared their backlog and has brought the DEM firewall to +375,741.
Fwiw, it was roughly +338K on the morning of ED 2021. They're well beyond that now.
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While PA could be a tough fight for Biden, Trump's biggest problem is that even if the rurals shift right again, a 1 pt swing left from Montgomery probably wipes most of that out, let alone the rest of the collars.
They've been moving further left since '20 and have yet to stop.
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Philadelphia County at the 2:30 PM mark:
~240,000 votes cast, ~360,000 total with mail-ins. 65% of 2018 turnout and we're on the verge of crossing the entire raw vote total cast in 2014.
This is not a 2010/2014 situation, that much is abundantly clear.
Philadelphia County at the 1:30 PM mark:
~220,000 in person votes cast, ~340,000 total with mail-ins (I mistakenly left out a small batch of 10K). The county is now at 62% of the *total number of votes* it cast in the entire 2018 election, in case the wording was unclear.
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Cumberland County (20% in)
Fetterman: 18,824 (74%)
Oz: 5,993 (23.5%)
Fett only needs 42% in Cumberland to win based on my model.
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ALLEGHENY COUNTY FIRST RESULTS
McCaffery: 87,324 (81%)
Carluccio: 20,360 (18.9%)
Mail split here exactly as I predicted. This is what McCaffery needed to start out with.
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Even his own family didn’t want him to run for PA Senate. Lmao. ☠️
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Daily reminder that Pelosi was so much better at counting votes that she often knew how many GOP votes she would get more precisely than R leadership did. She even had a secret whip count on the infrastructure bill.
Meanwhile, McCarthy makes someone leave their kid for this.
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I don’t know what happened to Dave, but his analyses don’t interact much with reality anymore.
Let’s take Fetterman, for instance. Despite R’s having a turnout advantage in PA, he won by 5 because he won twice as many Republicans as Oz did Dems and won indies by *20* points.
A big reason Dems beat pundit/historical expectations in the midterms? Only 112M people voted, including a disproportionate turnout among voters angry at Dobbs/abortion bans (many of them young/female).
But there will be ~160M voters in 2024. So who are those extra 48M voters?
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Senator Fetterman plans to open (or has already opened) offices in the following locations to perform constituent services.
Washington, D.C.
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Harrisburg
Erie
Wilkes-Barre
Nice spread of coverage from west to east in PA.
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Philly with 11% in
Fetterman: 58,657 (92%)
Oz: 3,847 (6%)
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🚨 Big news on PA voter registration numbers this week: Republicans have long been closing the gap, but for the first time in months, Democrats have a net *gain* statewide of 83. Powering this were correlated additions in virtually every urban/suburban PA county.
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Although the 2023 cycle in PA has fallen under the radar for many, this is probably the most consequential cycle for the state in quite some time, likely since 2016. And not in a way beneficial to Republicans. You'll be reading an in-depth explanation about this soon. Stay tuned.
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Republicans promised to cough up the 10 votes necessary to get this through if the vote were held after the midterms. Time for them to make good on that promise.
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