Bitcoin Vector
@bitcoinvector
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Institutional grade reports and real time signals for funds, family offices and market professionals by @swissblock__ and @woonomic.
Zug, Switzerland
Joined May 2025
FOMC Volatility Retrospective: It was all about volatility. BTC surged from $88K to $94.2K but failed to hold above the $93.5K yearly open, confirming it as firm resistance and rejecting momentum ignition. Post-FOMC, BTC grinded lower toward $89.5K–$90K, which continues to act
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On-chain Fundamentals Recap: Bitcoin’s on-chain fundamentals spent most of the year in neutral to strong territory, especially in the second half, matching the price highs and the last bullish leg. Weakness only appeared in late June–July, when BTC retested $100K after already
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Bitcoin is trying to reclaim the yearly open, and this time spot demand is finally improving. But be careful: it’s FOMC week. Pre-FOMC pumps are often reversed and easily manipulated. https://t.co/fkpKGiLZF6
The importance of the yearly open could not be clearer: Bitcoin was rejected exactly at that level. The psychological impact matters: what does it signal if BTC closes a typically bullish year with negative performance while other assets outperform? Spot demand is weakening as
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Last time this setup appeared, BTC delivered over 390% upside. This time the structure is different, but we’re starting from an environment that precedes liquidity expansion. And when liquidity turns, risk assets take the lead. https://t.co/QumOLmrHfc
The Russell 2000 breakout just happened. Historically, every major Russell breakout has been followed by a Bitcoin run into its cycle high with alts going vertical. Not because IWM predicts $btc. Because it screams risk-on liquidity. Small caps ripping = investors moving back
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The importance of the yearly open could not be clearer: Bitcoin was rejected exactly at that level. The psychological impact matters: what does it signal if BTC closes a typically bullish year with negative performance while other assets outperform? Spot demand is weakening as
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🚨FLIGHTSCOPE BLACK FRIDAY SALE $1,200 OFF Mevo Plus Golf Simulators!
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Since Bitcoin started losing key supports, ($100K, $95K, $90K, you name it) many claimed “the bottom is in.” All those bulls are now gone. There is no bottom (yet). To assess this properly, one of the tools I rely on is the framework from @bitcoinvector. This framework shows
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With this latest impulse, BTC has reclaimed more than it lost, recovering the $88.7K–$90.5K threshold. Each time BTC takes back this zone, selling pressure fades. But real trend change needs more. BTC is still in an Uncharted Market Trend: high-risk, high-volatility regime.
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After the liquidation cascade, buyers are reorganizing and we’re seeing the first signs of demand Risk isn’t exploding, which gives the buyers some breathing room First target: reclaim $88.5K-$90.6K If Spot demand weakens, $80.5K comes back into play https://t.co/a2BkJYptDe
Bitcoin, what’s the plan? This week could bring a second spike in the Risk-Off Signal. If that spike comes in weaker, it may mark seller exhaustion and strengthen the case for a bottom forming. For now, the ball is in the buyers’ court.
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Breaking above the top-buyers’ supply clusters is a key prerequisite for regaining momentum toward a new ATH. The major immediate clusters sit at $93k–$96K & $100k–$108K, where typically some degree of resistance from recent buyers is expected. 📊 https://t.co/dFiE9YGNP3
Bitcoin is attacking $90K, but we are still in a high-risk environment and momentum has not ignited. Bitcoin must brew momentum to break the compression forming since the ATH. The bullish path is clear: 🔸A first close inside the $89K–$90K zone. 🔸Consolidation above this
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If this holds, the rest of the year could stay in an alts-driven window, not a BTC-led phase. Mid-caps show risk appetite positioning, large caps show where liquidity feels safer. BTC will only reclaim leadership once structural support rebuilds: https://t.co/DbJnuT51z6
What we need next is a transition back toward BTC. That only happens when Bitcoin Dominance starts rising. So far, heavy selling kept dominance drifting lower, showing there’s still no real conviction in BTC despite the capitulation. 👇 https://t.co/2HVbCryT7m
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One scenario we need to consider for the final stretch of the year: the full strength may not return to BTC. BTC broke structure, and the market immediately rotated out. Market Phase is telling us the same thing, momentum isn’t flowing back into Bitcoin yet. 👇
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Bitcoin is still in a high-risk regime, but the signal is slowly stabilizing Selling pressure is weakening, and spot demand (which never disappeared) is finally making the difference The key question: has the worst passed? We’ll know when BTC retests $94K–$95K, the decisive
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Bitcoin is attacking $90K, but we are still in a high-risk environment and momentum has not ignited. Bitcoin must brew momentum to break the compression forming since the ATH. The bullish path is clear: 🔸A first close inside the $89K–$90K zone. 🔸Consolidation above this
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How BTC Dominance reacted after the FTX collapse? Price fell sharply, but BTC Dominance gradually expanded. That was the real signal that capitulation was ending. When fear peaks, capital retreats into Bitcoin, not alts. Fast forward to today: we still don’t have that
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During the February–April bottom, the pattern was unmistakable: Risk peaked → Dominance surged → Conviction returned → BTC became the refuge. We’re not seeing that yet, and this shift must appear for a sustainable recovery to take hold.
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What we need next is a transition back toward BTC. That only happens when Bitcoin Dominance starts rising. So far, heavy selling kept dominance drifting lower, showing there’s still no real conviction in BTC despite the capitulation. 👇 https://t.co/2HVbCryT7m
Bitcoin’s latest downside hit pushed altcoins into capitulation zone, marking a major negative-impulse event. This shock flipped the market cycle from Mid caps dominance to Large caps leadership, as capital rotates toward value, lower speculation, and high conviction plays.
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Sixty weeks later, we’re back at a Risk-Off reading of 100. Every past extreme like this marked seller exhaustion and a major bottom, supported by steady spot demand. Even if the full bottom isn’t in yet, a technical relief is getting close. https://t.co/UGgDZw21MF
The Risk-Off Signal is just inches from the capitulation zone, the same zone that has marked major BTC bottoms in the past two years. We’re entering the final stretch of seller exhaustion. Once it rolls over, BTC snaps into a bottoming phase with sharp, fast rebounds.
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BTC liquidity is tight and needs to reset into full exhaustion. Every reset has led to stabilization and recovery. Macro signals suggest we’re entering the late phase of the current correction, not a deeper bear market, not yet. https://t.co/9s8Q8Z6bZS
The current Risk-Off phase did its job: flush, stabilize, reset expectations. Now macro sensitivity is turning and liquidity stress is easing — classic signals that the regime is preparing to exit fragility and move back toward liquidity stability, where cleaner trend structures
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Nvidia earnings release isn’t a Risk-Off igniter by itself. The environment starts overheating before the release as the market prices in expectations. After earnings, we could see pressure unwind in the short term, and Risk-Off Signal easing. https://t.co/QpWuD3zonh
Nvidia earnings have become a macro pivot for the entire market. When NVDA beats and guides higher, liquidity expectations improve and tech (and risk) sentiment strengthens. BTC responds indirectly but consistently, stabilizing or bouncing within 24–72 hours. When Nvidia
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