Ben Recht
@beenwrekt
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optimization. machine learning. uc berkeley. I blog at https://t.co/fkJujOPsJb The world won't end.
Berkeley, CA
Joined August 2011
It's going to be one of those really stupid days on Twitter.
Breaking: 350+ leading AI researchers (including the CEOs of OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind) have signed a remarkable statement warning that AI poses a “risk of extinction,” and comparing it to pandemics and nuclear weapons.
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I wrote about the tragic death of Adam Raine and the venal negligence of "AI Safety."
argmin.net
Chatbot companies are harmful and dishonest. How can we hold them accountable?
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As promised, a syllabus for this semester’s graduate course on machine learning.
argmin.net
The syllabus for this semester's graduate course on machine learning.
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Should we still teach machine learning classes? Let me justify my existence.
argmin.net
They pull me back in! Time to teach machine learning again.
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Are linear models simple and interpretable? My answer won’t surprise you.
argmin.net
The allure of equating simplicity and linearity.
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Should machine learning care about simple baselines?
argmin.net
Do machine learning researchers actually care about simple baselines?
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If machine learning is a game, it’s Calvinball. Bitter lessons from chess don’t apply.
argmin.net
Why lessons from chess don't apply to machine learning
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Revisiting Sutton’s Bitter Lesson in the wake of GPT-5.
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Revisiting Sutton’s Bitter Lesson essay in the light of GPT5
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What’s The Irrational Decision about? Read about it here.
argmin.net
A book about how we gave computers the power to decide for us
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I’m excited to announce that my new book, The Irrational Decision, is available for pre-order from Princeton University Press.
press.princeton.edu
How the computer revolution shaped our conception of rationality—and why human problems require solutions rooted in human intuition, morality, and judgment
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Very half-baked philosophy of engineering post: How do we prove that something is unpredictable in machine learning?
argmin.net
How do we establish the limits of prediction?
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Caught in the middle of a political battle, @BlackRock reaffirmed its focus is helping millions of Americans save for retirement. They warned that injecting politics from either side risks undermining financial performance.
prosperityretirementalliance.com
Millions of Ameircans depend on the security of their retirement savings to live with dignity after a lifetime of hard work. That’s why the Alliance for Prosperity and a Secure Retirement (APSR)...
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Responding to @JessicaHullman, I propose an alternative to checklists and statistical mandates in machine learning research.
argmin.net
Advocating for open data without bureaucratic statistics.
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About that AI coding study and why quantitative “measurements” in social science are always ethnographic vibes.
argmin.net
Nope.
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Fully open machine learning requires not only GPU access but a community commitment to openness. (Some nostalgic lessons from the ImageNet decade.)
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The commitments required for fully open source machine learning
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Testing the waters of finance blogging, I wrote about deep learning memes, random features, and the glory of kernel smoothing.
argmin.net
Can you use deep learning memes to pick meme stocks?
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The NeurIPS paper checklist corroborates the bureaucratic theory of statistics.
argmin.net
The NeurIPS checklist corroborates the bureaucratic theory of statistics.
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"Prediction markets are a core part of news consumption." It's true, and also bad.
Two media takeaways from last night's election:. - Prediction markets are a core part of news consumption. The bettors aren't always perfect, but they're part of how we follow developing events now. - NY1 is such a good network if you're going to watch TV for local politics.
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To figure out the purpose of forecasting, I put on my Dan Davies hat and ask, “What do forecasts do?”
argmin.net
To figure out the purpose of forecasting, I put on my Dan Davies hat and ask, “What do forecasts do?”
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Always curious and full of energy, Beagles turn every walk into an adventure 🐾🎉.
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Forecasts as probabilities of the ruthless Bayesian.
argmin.net
Ruthless subjective probability without Bayes' Rule
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I’m declaring it forecasting week on the blog. Here’s a cute example transmuting errors of averages into averages of errors.
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A slightly more sophisticated example of Defensive Forecasting.
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In a new paper, Juanky Perdomo and I ask when forecasting and prediction can be solved by sneaky accounting. The answer turns out to be “more often than you’d expect."
argmin.net
Is superforecasting just sneaky accounting?
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