Appearing on @TimesRadio just after 8am to talk about the Budget. Will be explaining how Reeves’s fiscal problems are due to the large increase in public spending in last year’s Budget. Reining back on these spending increases should be part of her plan to curb borrowing.

Interesting comment on #BBC 1 O’clock News about latest # GDP figures. “Economy has been resilient and could have done much worse”. Hardly an encouraging message for the Chancellor!

The drop in Sept GDP seems to be largely accounted for by the disruption to the car industry at Jaguar, which has knocked about 0.15 percent off GDP in Sept. But even without that, monthly GDP would have flatlined since June . UK economy is sluggish, however you look at it.

GDP growth in 4 of last 5 quarters averages 0.2 percent, less than 1pc per annum. The surge in GDP in Q1 of this year has not been sustained - it was a flash in the pan.

Another quarter of sluggish UK growth. Year on year growth remains 1-1.5pc which is consistent with IMF forecasts for 2025 and the rest of 2020s. UK remains on course for weakest decade of growth in 100 years (see chart).

Retail now seeing the steepest falls in payrolled employees, relative to a year ago.

Chancellor was warned last October that increasing employer NI - the “tax on jobs” - would stifle job creation & raise unemployment. With the unemp rate up to 5pc, this is exactly what has happened, and there is probably more bad job news to come as employers adjust to higher NI.

Good news for inflation that private sector wage rises are easing. Total pay +4.4pc & regular pay 4.2pc. But adding in April Nat Insurance rise, total labour costs for a worker on ave pay = 6.9pc up on a year ago. This is the wage cost increase which feeds through to inflation.

Regular pay in the UK up 4.6pc in past 3 months on a year ago. Private sector pay growth has eased to 4.2pc but public sector pay up 6.6pc on a year ago. Not surprising gov’t spending is rising sharply!

It’s #BBC board and chairman who are responsible for the current crisis . They have not properly sorted out problems building up in recent years. The Chairman should resign and there should be a major cull on the BBC Board, with more people with media experience being brought in.

For public spending, the only way is up for Rachel Reeves. She suggests benefit limits on larger families are to be lifted. That’s in addition to the £100bn uplift in spending she’s already made. No hope of sorting public finances while Reeves is in charge

All the rumours and speculation suggest that it is politics rather than sound economic principles which will drive the content of the Budget. The same was true last year and for five years before under Johnson & Sunak. No wonder the economy and public finances are in such a mess!

Good article from @dsmitheconomics noting that the problem with raising the income tax rate is that it is part of a panicked response to fiscal problems, not a well thought out tax reform. Sadly, this has become the norm for our Chancellors these days.

My analysis of UK economic growth shows this decade is likely to see the worst economic growth and rise in living standards for 100 years. It will be featured in the Sunday @Telegraph tomorrow - see attached summary and chart: https://t.co/FDPeEZ9xT5

On Budget Day, remember this statement by the Chancellor in the Election campaign ….

The #MPC chose the right course today, helped by a sensible vote from Governor Bailey. It is a shame the 2 Dep Govs who voted to cut rates did not follow his lead, and their colleagues Huw Pill & Clare Lombardelli

More dismal UK economic news! 2020s are set for weakest GDP/head growth in 100 years. Just under 0.4pc growth in per capita output projected this decade, about 1/4 of historic ave & way below 2-2.5pc in 2nd half of 20th Century. No wonder the public is frustrated & dis-satisfied!

It seems Sarah Breeden, #BoE Deputy Gov, took time off from yesterday’s #MPC meeting to speak in the City. This appears to be a breach of MPC Purdah rules, so hopefully @bankofengland can explain or Bailey can be asked at the BoE press conference later.

This is extraordinary. Members of the MPC should not be circulating in the City in the middle of a policy-setting meeting! An urgent call to #BoE needed to clarify what’s going on!

Those arguing for a further UK rate cut tomorrow seem to forget the 5 cuts already made in anticipation of falling inflation which has yet to emerge - either in headline or core measures. Policy-makers must now stop cutting and wait for harder evidence of falling inflation.