Arjun Menon
@arjunmenon100
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umich’24 | 2023 NFL #BigDataBowl honorable mention | Previously: Analytics @nyjets | I don’t play fantasy football
Joined September 2017
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Pinned Tweet
Since I'm graduating this weekend, took some time to reflect on everything I've accomplished football-wise the last couple years at Michigan. Pretty happy with how things have gone for me
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I'm excited to announce that I will be joining the New York Jets this summer as a football analytics intern in their front office. Honored and humbled to be given this opportunity and to be able to work with a great group of people.
#TakeFlight
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Introducing my first Quarterback Help Composite Score! This takes ST, Rush, and Defensive EPA plus open rate for receivers as well as ESPN's PBWR and ranks which QBs get the most help. No wonder Mac Jones is the best rookie QB when he has been given so much help around him
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Greg Olsen is just a tier 1 ball knower man. Here's some data to back up his claim. On early downs since 2018, running play action from under center is the most efficient play call you can make when throwing the ball in almost every measure of efficiency there is
@BabooBott678
Under center play action is the best way to pass on early downs in the NFL. Play action from gun isn’t as effective. Marrying run and pass looks is the key. Not how well or often you run
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Very proud to introduce my first official Kirkulean tier list! For all QBs in the Kirk Cousins tier, I gave them a multiplier of how many Kirk's they're worth compared to Mr. Average himself. Let me know if I should change any of the multipliers or ranks.
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Greg Olsen: “you pass in the NFL to set up the run”
Can this guy commentate every game?
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The Colts are 9-6 when Jonathan Taylor rushes for at least 1 yard
The Colts are now 9-0 this season when Jonathan Taylor rushes for 100 yards, and 0-6 when he doesn't.
It's the latest into a season that a running back on an above .500 team has had his 100-yard rushing games match up perfectly with his team's wins and losses.
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Slowik hasn’t gone run-run-pass once this game and is absolutely shredding the
#1
defense in the NFL. Weird what happens when you let your elite QB throw the ball
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In the past 8 years, when looking at what matters to winning football games the strongest relationships are with passing the ball, and stopping the pass.
Not running the ball or stopping the run
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The best football content out there is any time we get an inside look on front office content like trade negotiations, contract negotiations, or draft prospect evaluation. Better than watching a player's film tbh
Watch Monti Ossenfort cook on the phones
and tell me this isn't a man who will trade back with a team that takes a QB at No. 4 - and then immediately move back up for Marvin Harrison Jr.
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Quentin Johnston getting benched for Alex Erickson in a must-win game in the middle of the season. Erickson was signed to the practice squad and didn't practice with the Chargers at all during training camp, and has only been elevated in the past 2 weeks.
Yikes
Brandon Staley says it was a coaching staff decision to bench Quentin Johnston, not medical staff.
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If you have time over Thanksgiving break and want to learn to code in R, I put together a coding tutorial of how to use free public NFL data to look at a team's run/pass tendencies when a certain player(s) are on/off the field using R.
Youtube link:
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Excited to finally introduce The Scout. A fully automated opponent scouting report, built to scout every team in the NFL for you all from free public data. You can see a team's run/pass splits, personnel efficiency, run game tendencies and more!
App Link:
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Turning 21 in the House that Herbert built it really doesn’t get better than that
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The offseason is right around the corner, so that means every team will be looking to find players to improve their roster. I wrote about which teams have the most overall offseason resources using: cap space, draft capital, and prorateable money
Article:
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Going to be joining
@nflnetwork
live on NFL Total Access later tonight at 7:40 pm est to discuss some of my favorite draft prospects this year. Tune in if you can
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There are elite OL units: Saints, Ravens, Steelers
Great OL units: Bills, Patriots, Browns
Average OL Units: Rams, Eagles, Bucs
Bad OL Units: Niners, Seahawks, Dolphins
Then there's whatever the hell the Chargers are
Praying Joe Lombardi brings the Saints magic to LA
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Some personal news: This is my last week with PFF as I transition to a different opportunity for this upcoming summer. Can't say enough good things about the company and I wouldn't have wanted to start my professional career anywhere else than PFF with the people inside.
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Calling a screen pass in the playoffs in the 2nd half down 2 scores on 3rd and 14 says something about the QB🤷♂️
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Raise your hand if you thought the Chargers Special Teams was this bad last year
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With the regular season over a majority of NFL teams will now turn to the offseason to find players to improve their roster. I wrote about which teams have the most overall offseason resources using cap space, draft capital, and prorateable money
Article:
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Turned 21, Chargers win by 21, I appreciate y’all
@chargers
. Let’s do it again in a couple weeks yea?
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Demoting Sean Desai seems to have worked out well for the Eagles this season. Got worse in almost every important defensive statistical category
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Favorite free agency moment ever is Bengals somehow having a contract done 1 minute after the “legal” tampering period started with an external free agent. Too good
Tom Brady’s loss will be Joe Burrow’s gain: Bucs’ free-agent guard Alex Cappa intends to sign a four-year, $40 million deal with the Bengals after free agency opens, per league sources.
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I guess Schefter is gonna be breaking all the Caleb Williams news for the rest of his career
Joe Burrow learned his season was over on Friday, understood his responsibility, and went out and held a news conference. The job of a QB and face of the franchise.
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Excited to share my NFL Draft Athletic Testing averages app. You can filter by position and see a team's average testing numbers back to 2011, or look only at the current regime in the GM tab. Hope this is helpful for people during draft season!
App link:
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Here's my
@nflnetwork
and
@NFLTotalAccess
appearance yesterday talking about Ladd McConkey, Chop Robinson, and Audric Estime for anyone who wasn't able to watch it live.
Full vid link:
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Well we made it onto ESPN with this tweet haha. Shoutout to the legend
@minakimes
for referencing and crediting the numbers and giving a great breakdown as always.
Throwing to WRs lined up in the backfield > Throwing to RBs not lined up in the backfield. Last 4 years of data below
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After 2 days in India, I’m convinced that if NFL QBs want to improve their anticipation, timing, and ability to read the field, they should move to India for 6 months and become an Uber driver. The way these drivers drive with no regard for traffic and never get hit is unmatched
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Got mentioned on the
@minakimes
pod today so that’s pretty cool. Both me and
@tejfbanalytics
have had our work referenced by Mina either on national TV or her podcast now,
@TakeThePointz
📈
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Turned 22 today. Time flies faster than Tyreek Hill on a football field
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Need to clarify because have gotten sent this & congratulated by others. This is not me haha, there is another Arjun Menon who works in sports, & even I didn't know that up until today. Regardless, it's a great moment for Arjun, and any congrats should be directed to him not me
personal news!
so excited to announce I’ll be joining
@ESPNNext
as a Production Assistant, part of their January 2024 cohort! thank you so much to my family and friends for their endless support, and I can’t wait to head to Bristol to get started with a talented group!
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Chad is awesome, this is a great hire for the Bolts
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Offensive pass blocking in expected passing situations based on pressure rate allowed (x-axis) and time to pressure allowed (y-axis)
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Apparently my graph was on the
@PatMcAfeeShow
today? That’s kind of cool
Our guy
@arjunmenon100
getting some love on
@PatMcAfeeShow
this morning! Things you love to see!
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Never forget that the greatest free agency moment ever is Bengals somehow having a contract done 1 minute after the “legal” tampering period started with an external free agent. Just perfect
Tom Brady’s loss will be Joe Burrow’s gain: Bucs’ free-agent guard Alex Cappa intends to sign a four-year, $40 million deal with the Bengals after free agency opens, per league sources.
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Someone should’ve told Luke to do some research before sending out an uneducated tweet like this
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Throwing to WRs lined up in the backfield > Throwing to RBs not lined up in the backfield. Last 4 years of data below
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IT Factor
I get the point
@stephenasmith
is making, but the Dolphins & Charger have an identical record this year, and Tua has a 17-9 win-loss record compared to Justin Herbert’s 19-20 record.
Herbert has the size and skills.
But Tua is IT. Has always had IT. Give me IT.
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“Hey siri, what does rent free look like?”
Cant believe I didn’t see this yesterday but it might not seem like it but this is such a great answer and thought process when it comes to filtering through analytics as a coach.
Analytics isn’t just what you see from Ben Baldwin or that Jets intern disingenuously.
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Here's a visualization quantifying the "It Factor" between the 2 best QBs from the 2020 class. As you can see, Joe Burrow's "It Factor" far outweighs Justin Herbert's which explains how he wins so much.
P.S. Check the data from caption in the bottom right of the graph
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San Diego is really just the greatest city in the world isn’t it?
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So I guess no more being on PFF Ultimate during class anymore?
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So Eli Manning is gonna get in the HOF over Rivers because he has 2 SB rings even though Philip Rivers outplayed him almost every year for the past decade.
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Excited to finally debut my Expected Contract Value app with
@PFF_Brad
! See how long players who signed in FA are expected to play on their deal, how much money they're expected to make, & input your offers in the calculator to get your own results
App:
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LMAO. He has always had IT right? That why he got benched for Fitzpatrick his rookie year in week 16 right? That's why in a must-win game last year vs the Titans he went 18-35 for 205 yards, 1 INT, and -0.42 EPA/play
Using "IT factor" as analysis is lazy and doesn't mean shit
I get the point
@stephenasmith
is making, but the Dolphins & Charger have an identical record this year, and Tua has a 17-9 win-loss record compared to Justin Herbert’s 19-20 record.
Herbert has the size and skills.
But Tua is IT. Has always had IT. Give me IT.
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The power went out in my house/neighborhood 15 minutes before I went live, still powered through. Hopefully people enjoyed the segment and what I was able to say
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So because I haven't seen a public tool for this, I built a dashboard that tracks First TD scorers by team, broken down by run/pass and the position who scored. Hoping this tool can be useful for bettors to do research throughout the season
App:
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Belichick trades back like a legend and still lands the best CB in the draft in Gonzalez. Best to ever do it
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Sacks are mostly a QB stat, but let's add more context to this stat by Popper. In the final 2 min of regulation, Herbert's time to pressure has been 2.25 seconds. Lg avg in those situations is 2.47. On sack plays in 2 min drills, he's been pressured in 2.28 seconds
Justin Herbert has taken 7 combined sacks + grounding penalties in 2-minute drill situations this season. That leads the league, per
@TruMediaSports
.
Late-game pass protection is yet another issue in this lost
#Chargers
season.
Add it to the list.
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Nobody probably cares at this point in the night but here's the data on 4th and 1 playcalling from shotgun on 4th & 1 with since 2018. Non-shotgun play calls have a much higher EPA/play and a 7.3% higher 1st down conversion rate than plays from shotgun
Shotgun lol
Every single postgame show should explain the advantages of it because I’ve never heard one. It seems to me that if you line up under center, the D line plays for the sneak
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Excited to announce I will be joining
@PFF
as a Football Research Intern for the 2021-2022 season! This journey has been crazy and for me to end up at such a great company is a dream come true.
Big thanks to
@PFF_AustinGayle
for bringing me onboard and can't wait to get to work!
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Nice shot of the Chargers analytics group of Corey Krawiec, Alex Stern, and Aditya Krishnan (from left to right) in this picture right here
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Never calling him Coach Prime ever again after that cowardly 4th and 2 FG kick
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The three Chargers players I expect to make NFL’s top 100 list tomorrow are:
Keenan Allen (60-80 range)
Joey Bosa (40-60 range)
Justin Herbert (20-40 range)
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Appreciate
@TulanePFNC
for allowing me and
@tejfbanalytics
to compete in the comp. We were 🤏close to making it to quarterfinals as the only all-undergrad team in the comp ever but just missed out on top 8. Great experience though and well-hosted by Tulane
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Gambling is like making 4th down decisions. The model/process will say it was the right decision/a good play, but it won’t always work out. People will love you when it hits, hate you when it fails, even if it was the right decision.
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Greg Olsen with a perfect explanation of CPOE while under pressure👑
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Chargers analytics group of Aditya Krishnan and Alex Stern making a cameo in the Chargers draft room while Telesco makes the call to Johnston. You love to see it
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Since 2017 in the playoffs, 86.9% of teams that have had the higher EPA/pass in the game ended up winning the game. In that same time frame, only 58.3% of teams that had the higher EPA/rush in a game ended up winning the game.
You pass to win, regardless of timing in the season
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If Eli Manning makes the HOF, then Philip Rivers definitely has to as well
You can pick one, and ONLY one, of these guys to make the Hall of Fame. Who's your choice?
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If you have time over the holidays or winter break, I put together a coding tutorial on doing data manipulation and visualization in R using the new free public NFL coverage data, while also showing how to measure defensive coverage predictability
Video:
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It's been little over a month and I still can't believe Rashawn Slater and Asante Samuel Jr. fell to the Chargers
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Evergreen
This just proves the point the cap is a myth. Chargers pushed their problem back a year knowing it would be an out year for Williams. Restructure Mack’s deal to push it back some more. Allen and Bosa for now still on the squad. So the net loss so far for the cap manipulation is
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Ready to turn into the joker when this happens:
Touchdown with 2:02 left in half
3 minute ad
Kickoff is a touchback
3 minute ad
Offense runs one play to get to 2 minute warning
3 minute ad
BREAKING: College Football is expected to add 3 new things,
@RossDellenger
reports🔥
• Helmet communication
• Tablets on sideline/halftime
• 2-minute warning
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I wrote about some quarterback superlatives for all of the main starting QBs for the AFC last year. Took a look at EPA vs certain coverages, who performed best under pressure, and who did the best in certain personnel packages.
Full Analysis:
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Had a lot of fun working with EJ on this project, go check out the thread to see some new QB metrics we worked on this season to do our best to attempt to quantify how much help a QB gets from their offense, and team overall
So... I invented a new stat. We always talk about how important support for a QB is, but I couldn't find a stat that showed what I wanted to, so I made one. And then... I had to make another one. So yeah, I made 2 stats. Here's a video (and a thread) on why, how, and who helped:
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My favorite thing nowadays is when younger people reach out to me on LinkedIn with a message or asking to connect and refer to me as Mr. Menon as if I'm not 22 years old and still in college lol
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In the most beautiful stadium in the league repping the best safety in the league
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Pretty cool that about 2 years ago
@tylerjschoon
approached me with this idea of doing Chargers-analytics videos for the
@GACPodcast17
channel back when I was a nobody with less than 50 followers. Now the podcast is doing videos for the Chargers actual podcast network. Good times
Some news:
@tylerjschoon
and I are incredibly excited to share that we have partnered with the
@chargers
to provide weekly content for them across their platforms! Our first episode will be dropping tomorrow at 10 AM on their feeds to wrap up our pre-draft coverage!
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New App Time! Me and
@alexfeazelle
worked together and used the new free coverage data from
@nflfastR
to build an app showing coverage efficiency numbers for QBs and defenses this season for anyone to look at. We hope people enjoy and find it useful
App:
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Even if you are not a Chargers fan, I hope you want Derwin James back on the field in 2021 because he makes the game of football more fun to watch
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Someone sent this to me and I found it absolutely hilarious. Spotrac projects Justin Fields to get a $47.1M APY deal (6th highest in the league). He just got traded for a 6th round pick to be a backup lol.
Another reason to only use OverTheCap for any cap-related stuff
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Brad’s my favorite person I’ve ever worked with in my entire life. Sad to see him go but excited for the future
Was gonna post yesterday, but April Fools is a dumb holiday. Anyway...
This is my last week at PFF.
Wanted to give a huge thank you to everyone that has supported my work over the years, can't even begin to express how grateful I am for the support and quality conversation
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Feels nice to have gotten a little shoutout today on the Sloan football analytics panel when discussing Michigan’s elite football progrum the last couple years.
#GoBlue
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Derwin James had an electric start to his career but fell victim to the injury bug. I dove into what makes him special, and the impact he makes when he’s on the field. He would be the queen on the chessboard for any defensive coordinator.
Analysis:
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Using the brilliant work of
@tejfbanalytics
we can take a look at every rookie QB and how accurate they were during the preseason. Mac Jones and Zach Wilson have looked stellar across 3 games so far
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My convos with multiple classmates this week:
Me: “What are you doing for spring break next week”
Them: “Oh I’m going to Mexico/Florida/Barcelona for a couple days. What about you?”
Me: “That’s cool. I’m going to Indianapolis for the NFL Combine”
Them: “Oh that’s cool I guess🥴”
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We may never see an Indian player in the NFL, but it's super cool to see Sean Desai be successful and Aditya Krishnan play a role in helping to game plan for my favorite team and for Brandon Staley
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First meeting back for the 2023 season. Great turnout, gonna be an amazing year
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I shouldn't entertain, but I'll bite. Acho only using completion percentage, the start that literally has the lowest correlation to winning of any major QB stat, to prove a point, shows he should not be listened to, or taken seriously at all
This tweet makes my point. Herbert has a 57% completion percentage on today (that falls between Baker mayfield and Zach Wilson). Yet here you are tweeting me this throw while they’re losing to …the Raiders.
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Since Lamar Jackson took over the Ravens in Week 11 of 2018, he has led one of the most prolific rushing attacks in the NFL. However, when it comes time to the playoffs, the Ravens have experienced the biggest dropoff in running the ball.
Analysis:
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