Anhad Virk · CFA I
@anhad_virk
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I read numbers, not headlines. | Investor & Trader | India Equities & Macro | CFA I | MBA Finance | Enjoying the Profits 💥
Chandigarh, India
Joined May 2014
Typical market behavior when drones and missiles fly: • Fear pushes oil higher. 🛢️ • Gold becomes the preferred safe haven. 🥇 • Risk assets and equities get sold first. 📉 If crude continues climbing toward $80+ from here, stocks will start to feel the pressure.
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Everyone saying “it’s just fuel prices” is dead wrong. Petrol, diesel, LPG aren’t just numbers — they’re the domino that topples everything else: food, fertilizers, transport… your wallet. By the time state elections are over, your monthly bills will look nothing like today.
It is a question of time, precisely till state elections are over. I expect a huge price increase in petrol, diesel, LPG, fertilisers and many essential items too. The increase in costs would ultimately be passed on to end customers. Fuel and gas impacts prices of so many things.
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🚨 Most people don’t know this twist: 👉 US gas takes WAY longer to reach you. India turns to the US LPG market because Gulf supply routes are blocked by war. Geopolitics on Your Stove. LPG shortage → Your kitchen just got political. • 60% of India’s LPG comes from Gulf •
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Rupee just broke ₹93/$ for the first time in history. Panic ❌ Warning Signs✅ • One of Asia’s weakest currencies this year • Fell ~0.7% in a single session 📉 • Foreign investors turning cautious Most people don’t see this: Every spike in oil = direct hit on your wallet
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After the biggest fall in months, this looks like a relief rally. 👀
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Markets just did a complete U-turn. 🚀 Confused? You should be. • Sensex +900 pts • Nifty back above 23,300 • Midcaps +1.4% • Smallcaps +1% • IT & PSU Banks leading And yet… ₹13 lakh crore was wiped out just yesterday. 👉 So what’s real? Panic or rally?
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🚨 Everyone saw the crash. Almost no one saw why. This is where people go wrong. They blame “profit booking”. Reality? Money is leaving. Fast. Stocks to track 👇 • HDFC Bank → Leadership shock • TCS → Global AI + infra deal • NTPC → Energy expansion push • Nestle
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Gold is crashing. Silver is crashing. Crypto is crashing. Stocks are crashing. And people are still asking what to buy… Only thing to buy right now 👇💊
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Lesson? Even “safe haven” assets fall. Because in markets — nothing is safe when liquidity shifts.
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So what you’re seeing is NOT panic… It’s repricing. Markets adjusting to a new reality.
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And here’s the twist… Gold is supposed to rise during uncertainty. But right now — macro > narrative.
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Fourth: Profit booking. Gold ran hard for months. When positions get crowded… Even a small trigger = sharp sell-off.
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Third: Liquidity shift. When safer yield assets (like bonds) look better… Money flows OUT of metals. Simple as that.
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Second: Strong dollar. Gold & silver are priced in USD. Stronger dollar = weaker demand globally → Prices fall.
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Big reason: Interest rates. When central banks stay hawkish (no rate cuts)… Gold becomes less attractive. Because it pays zero yield.
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First — this is NOT random. Gold & silver don’t fall like this without a trigger. This is macro at play.
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Gold just dropped ~5% in a day. Silver crashed ~10%. And suddenly everyone is confused. Before you panic — understand what’s actually happening 🧵👇
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Common people: Please, let there be peace. Investors: Please, let oil move, stocks stabilize, and portfolios breathe.
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⚠️ EVERYTHING WENT RED TODAY Sensex dumped ‑2,400+ pts Nifty tumbled ‑741 pts ₹12 T+ wiped out from markets 📉 Fear gauge (VIX) shot up >21% 🔥 Crude oil spike. Fed didn’t cut. HDFC Bank got smashed. Profit booking everywhere👇 Most people will panic here… But this is where
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🚨 Banks are bleeding. Banking stocks are under pressure since the West Asia war. • Nifty Bank is down ~11% in the last two weeks. • SBI & HDFC Bank each lost over ₹1 trn in market cap. • ICICI & Axis also slipped significantly. Credit growth and asset quality remain
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Strongly disagree — calling this the “last rate cut” is premature. Inflation is rising again War is adding pressure Oil is exploding And even they don’t have clear answers The Fed itself looks unsure This isn’t confidence… it’s confusion The story isn’t over yet.
SUMMARY OF FED DECISION (3/18/2026): 1. Fed halts rate cuts for the second straight meeting 2. Fed projects one rate cut in 2026, one in 2027 3. Fed 2026 PCE inflation forecast revised higher to 2.7% 4. Fed says implications of Middle East developments are "uncertain" 5. Fed
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