amoylan
@amoylan
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Husband, father, fighter for smarter tax/budget policy @Arnold_Ventures. Boxing, University of Michigan, F1 fan. Once aptly described as “grumpy happy.”
Joined November 2008
Well, I guess it's now time to start cranking up informal betting markets on OBBB outcomes. Who wants to bet?. Will the temporary provisions get extended? Will deficits increase or decrease relative to the CBO score? Will IRA phase-outs stick? Will Medicaid/SNAP cuts stick? Etc.
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RT @DonFSchneider: Medicaid & SNAP cuts in OBBB in a historical context. Effectively it is a return to 2019 levels as % GDP. Much of this i….
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We need a government and it does have to be funded by taxes, but there's nothing odd about the thought that the best place for the marginal dollar is in an individual's hands. In fact, revealed preferences suggest it's a nearly unanimous view.
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You know who else believes this? Basically everyone. When people have extra money or a charitable heart, they donate to non-profits or give directly. Almost no one pays more in taxes than the law requires.
BLITZER: Are you comfortable with millionaires getting additional tax breaks?. McCLAIN: I believe people are better stewards of their money than the federal government
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I'm reminded of Cory Booker's "filibuster" about. wait, what was it about again?. And then everyone cheered and cheered.
Kind of perfect that Jeffries is gunning for a record everyone has forgotten from a process nobody remembers.
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Perhaps none of it less relevant than Hakeem Jeffries's "magic minute" (several-hour long speech that will move precisely zero votes).
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Congress has always been performative, but I can't help but be amused by everyone cataloguing their heroic support of/opposition to One Big Beautiful/Ugly Bill in an X video, with the dome framed just-so in the background. Much of it while irrelevant "debate" (1 minute speeches)
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🎶one of these things is not like the others🎶. Song lyrics, but also an important note when evaluating CEA projections of OBBB.
Will the "Big Beautiful Bill" lead to an economic boom or just modestly higher growth?
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👇I've been saying this for months. At every point, it's "Forget your conscience/the contents of the bill/commitments you made during your election/basically everything else, you can't vote 'no' now!".
Ahh, the old Leadership Two Step! I've seen this one before. Step one: This is just the starting line, a procedural vote to unlock policy process. You can't vote "no" now!. Step two: We're so close to the finish line. You can't vote "no" now!.
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"Many worry they're being jammed by leadership.". That's exactly what is happening.
Many Rs in this group are livid about the megabill GOP leaders are trying to push through today. They argue it violates the House budget framework they worked to secure + were promised. Many worry they’re being jammed by leadership.
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RT @George_A_Callas: Claims the Senate bill complies with the House instructions requires a current policy baseline. But the House tax cut….
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Can't tell you how many times I have failed and consoled myself by noting that we at least brought attention to an issue. DOGE is (was?) the best opportunity to make actual progress in a generation, but attention alone ain't gonna solve the problem of waste, fraud, and abuse.
DOGE wasn't "pointless." It was good and completely justifiable to take a big swing of the axe at the bureaucracy even if it only chipped off some bark. It brought a lot of attention to how money moves around in DC and will motivate more big swings of the axe in the future.
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RT @BudgetModel: We estimate the Senate-passed reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $3.1 trillion over 10 years. The dynamic c….
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"We need to pass this bill and get it to the president's desk and we're on a limited time frame.". We're literally not! We've got 6 full months before TCJA provisions expire. Plenty of time to craft a package that prevents higher taxes, prioritizes growth, and doesn't add debt.
Just caught up with OMB Director Russ Vought. Asked if the White House wants the House to make any changes to the bill, he said, "We need to pass this bill. We need to get it to the president's desk.". So no changes?. "We need to pass this bill and get it to the president's desk
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We have advocated for Congress to prioritize growth when composing a bill and the Senate took a step in that direction by making expensing provisions permanent, but unfortunately they took two steps back elsewhere in the bill by blowing out the cost even more than the House.
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Oof. @BudgetModel report says that the Senate bill is $400 billion *worse* on a dynamic basis vs. conventional ($3.5T vs. $3.1T 10-yr deficits), and that's despite it including permanent extension of the genuinely pro-growth expensing provisions.
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RT @annatyger: The Senate bill is about $650 billion away from meeting the House's fiscal framework. Here are a few ways the House can clos….
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This is the kind of stuff that happens when you rush a process.
Senate bill: “Come to the US illegally and when your child is born here, they’ll get federally subsidized baby bonds.”.
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It's honestly a little hilarious that after all of the effort aimed at denying benefits to illegal immigrants, the Senate oopsied its way into CASH GRANTS FOR ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS.
👀Surprise policy change in BBB:.Undocumented immigrants can now set up the so-called “Trump accounts,” as long as the kids are born in the US. The provision mandating SSN numbers for parents was struck by the Senate parliamentarian. H/t tax whiz @George_A_Callas.
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