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Shares of Canadian subprime lender Goeasy fall 50% on guidance of surging loan defaults and write downs Sub prime lending is often first to drop near the end of a credit cycle This could be a canary in the coal mine for mortgage defaults and power of sales

Fixed mortgage rate hikes of ~0.20% are imminent in the coming days According to Morgan Stanley, a 30% oil price shock could lift headline inflation by ~1% within 3 months Market odds are currently volatile, but are now leaning towards a 0.25% BoC hike within the next year

🚨 Bond yields are up ~7% on the week 🚨 If this holds through tomorrow, fixed rates will be increasing 0.10 - 0.15% across the board and may be headed even higher This is not a drill If youre up for renewal, reserve your rate ASAP

Fears of a credit crisis and geo political risk gave way to anticipation of higher inflation due to a spike in oil prices Monday morning Accordingly, Bond yields lept ~3.5% A sustained war of 2-3 weeks+ could result in an inflationary trend and upward fixed rate pressure

We are seeing some of the lowest fixed mortgage rates in over 3 years: 5 YR fixed @ 3.69% for purchases and 3.79% for renewals VRM still carries upside risk, but the outlook is improving BoC odds have pulled back from 4 hikes (1%) over the next 5 years to 3 hikes (0.75%)

And bond yields barely flinched on the news… among all the tariff noise, the bond market has remained cool as a cucumber

🇨🇦 CPI/ inflation in January lowered by 0.1% to 2.3%, slightly under consensus of 2.4%. Excluding gasoline, inflation was 3% This, plus investors moving to safety in bonds/lower yields prompted some banks to reduce fixed rates by ~0.05% Odds of a BoC March cut increased to 13%

$PYPL plan to buy back $6B of shares in 2026 could be a terrible strategy if the business decelerates Until growth stabilizes, management should allocate capital to growing assets - even treasuries Otherwise its just more good money after bad

Check out the latest edition of my newsletter It discusses the Canadian jobs market and market volatility in software, AI, Bitcoin, Gold and Silver https://t.co/bDp6uxCrex

The 🇨🇦 jobs market in Jan moved in several directions at once: • Unemployment📉to 6.5% due to exits from the workforce • Full time:📈by 45,000 • Part time:📉70,000, netting 25,000 lost jobs Financial markets ultimately shrugged it off; mortgage rates remain stable

The Ontario and Federal governments have invested $ hundreds of millions into this plant, with earmarked subsidies of up to $15 Billion Stellantis just sold its stake for $100 https://t.co/qFZLPgvXw4

When it comes to finance there are no guarantees. We talk in likelihoods and probability Right now there’s higher market uncertainty and volatility, but here’s some reasonable likelihoods to consider: - Kevin Warsh lowers 🇺🇸 rates more than markets expect - Liquidity floods,

Limp 0.1% GDP growth in November 2025, and early estimates for flat growth in December were mostly priced into Bond Yields, keeping fixed mortgage rates on firm ground We also expect the BoC and VRM to hold for 2026, barring a US trade negotiation breakdown

🚨BREAKING: As widely expected, the Bank of Canada holds its overnight rate at 2.25% Markets are pricing a ~70% chance that the BoC and the variable rate mortgage have found their happy place for the rest of 2026, with bank prime at 4.45% and VRM 'prime minus' discounts at ~1%

Risk management is not the opposite of wealth building It is what allows wealth to compound uninterrupted: Invest consistently Stay invested during volatility Avoid forced sales

Unfortunately we’ll never know what was actually said on that call… But it is interesting to hear the top American in finance arguing FOR US Canadian trade What happened to ‘we don’t need Canada’?