Alex
@alexmccullaaa
Followers
1K
Following
28K
Media
413
Statuses
9K
@awakentax customer success & humble degen.
New York, NY
Joined November 2010
How often does @Polymarket accurately predict outcomes? . This 🧵:. 🎯 Analyzes overall market accuracy.📈 Uncovers potential biases in markets.📊 Highlights when/where markets under or over perform.🧠Provides insights into the psychology of bettors. Link below. /1.
13
16
97
RT @big_duca: Would be cool to see the price of healthcare per person overlaid. Did it increase by 1,000x too?. I don’t think it did. So….
0
1
0
RT @williamlegate: When I joined Kalshi a year ago today, Tarek made their mission clear: “copy everything Polymarket does… our moat is reg….
0
50
0
RT @mteamisloading: Did you know that Ethereum's Beam Chain project has been replaced by an even cooler successor?. This is all about "lean….
0
42
0
RT @HugoMartingale: Prediction markets have come a long, long way since Polymarket was founded in 1992 following the breakup of Yugoslavia.
0
8
0
RT @big_duca: If you use CryptoTaxCalculator. And want to switch to Awaken. Comment and DM me. First 5 people get Awaken for free. Yo….
0
7
0
RT @PixOnChain: prediction market supercycle is very real. and kinda insane how Polymarket is accurate on 95% of markets within 4 hours. ev….
0
33
0
RT @0xDoraaa: In betting shops, after placing a bet you can’t get back even part of your money. But on prediction markets everything is dif….
0
3
0
RT @shayne_coplan: .@MrBeast kept checking the polymarket about himself on his own stream. A whole new generation will understand predicti….
0
147
0
Gassed that I have never heard of any of these people except 1, and unfollowed the one months ago for posting an obviously paid shill.
NEW LEAK: Price sheet of 200+ crypto influencers and their wallet addresses from a project they were recently contacted by to promote. From 160+ accounts who accepted the deal I only saw <5 accounts actually disclose the promotional posts as an advertisement.
1
0
1
RT @0xWeber: super insightful dashboard that confirmed my observations. basically markets tend to systematically overestimate the odds of Y….
0
1
0
RT @primo_data: Connect with @alexmccullaaa and check out his unique @Dune dashboard on prediction market accuracy.
0
2
0
Also, since I created this analysis, people still reach out to me about Polymarket constantly, including builders, analysts, and investors. If you're in this space, whether you're a builder, an analyst, or a founder, please connect with me! If you're hiring, or looking for a.
2
0
8
I am going to keep working on this dashboard. I have a few ideas of how to improve it and derive new insights, but if you have any suggestions or requests, please leave a comment or DM. 4/5.
1
0
3
Significantly *less* markets are resolving to yes now (22% today vs 28% originally), which is probably more indicative of Polymarket growing more than anything. More markets resolving to no means more long odds markets that are unlikely to occur, meaning more people are creating.
1
0
4
The accuracy numbers have crept up slightly. When I wrote this original thread, @Polymarket was accurately predicting 94% of markets 4 hours before resolution. That number is now over 95%. *I initially measured 3 hours out, but determined that was too close to resolution to be.
1
0
1
10 months to the day since I created this dashboard measuring @Polymarket's accuracy. I just went in and completely revamped it. I made the queries lighter and pulled in a ton of new data. 🚨Spoiler alert: PM is only getting better. Not much has changed, but 1/.
8
20
100
RT @swegoninternet: Awaken looks destined to become the go-to crypto tax app in the next few years. The product is on another level compa….
0
3
0
