1/ Fri Oct 21st at ~10:30am EST: JPY suddenly rallies nearly 3% vs USD USDJPY 151.98 → 148 in 2hrs. Huge But just prior to- there was $¥ momentum upside breakout +1% on the day & about to break thru 152 for new 32yr high (This was also 10Y UST yield high, intraday/thereafter)

2/ This was driven by a massive JPY futures short covering Nearly 600k JPY futures contracts traded ($48bn notional)- most on record, & more than ½ of which traded within 2hrs There was no similar unusually large UST futures volume / activity at that whipsaw moment- this was ¥

3/ Since that week, levered (hedge funds) short yen positions fell (exited trade) by ~20k contracts Squeeze on very crowded short ¥ trade has been underway & short covering begets short covering- pulling $/¥ down < 140 & UST yields follow↓ as similar short covering takes place

4/ So WTF was that sudden ~$50bn of ¥ futs buying on Oct 21st 10:30am that put in “the top” in USDJPY & yields?? What triggered this? 🇯🇵MOF/BOJ ¥entervention (or- Nikkei reporting such) SO if you hear case for “Oct was/not the UST floor” ..just see if ¥ is even mentioned at all

5/ Discussed @RealVision Daily Briefing w/ @AndreasSteno today 👇

@acrossthespread Check out the investigation by @frankoz95967943

@acrossthespread I thought it was August and had to bag hold. Still holding.

@acrossthespread ^Tyx (30yr yield US ) may sink to 3.62 before resuming its long term bull run above its recent maximum . I personally have given up on linking USD/JPY (JPY=X) to treasury yield . There are too many moving parts . For example, begin of 2018 they moved opposite . This CAN happen