Weston Nakamura
@acrossthespread
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Founder, Across The Spread. 🌏markets analysis via 🇯🇵/Asia lens. Former derivatives trader @ Goldman & Jefferies + original content @ RealVision & Blockworks
Tokyo
Joined July 2019
A decade ago, I didn’t know what a “bond yield” was I had (have) a BARELY passing 2.51 GPA from college I moved to Tokyo with no job, nowhere to live Nonetheless, Goldman Sachs hired me to trade futures & options Here’s my story👇 https://t.co/1k9Smzjxtj +trading & markets
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I’m pretty sure this is what the likes of Enron CEO Ken Skilling, Elizabeth Holmes of Theranos, Lehman’s Dick Fuld & other visionaries say T-1month or so before their little game blows up But yea go long JGBs & JPY it’ll be fine
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Will our future AGI mind-children look back on 2025-26 as: 1) an era where humans were leveraging AIs massively to create smarter AIs? ... Or 2) an era where early proto-AGIs were using humans to help them create the next phase of more AGI-ish proto-AGIs?
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Full context clip - Takaichi is quoting a famous 🇯🇵anime / manga, as Saudis are apparently also big fans Still, this is damn aggressive - in a fantastic way So to all the 🇯🇵 who will inevitably be “outraged” of this “conduct unbecoming of a 🇯🇵PM” Shut your mouth & have humor
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🇯🇵Masa Son once bragged SoftBank Vision Fund raised $40bn in 40mins (“$1bn/min”) from MBS (which he subsequently blew up, & because of that Saudis had to rip crude prices↑ - so we can all thank Masa for ‘22 inflation) But damn.. NOBODY pitches for capital like this- even in
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I won’t re-annoy everyone on NKY 50k But I will point out just how glued to / cue-taking spot BTC has been to 🇯🇵 last few days NKY futures↑ & flatline ~50k end of last week (foreign capital holiday🍗)- as does BTC & BTC stays motionless thru the weekend until: 🇯🇵open→slammed
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Capital Controls w/ 🇺🇸American Characteristics Narrative-wise, this would be far more positive for BTC / crypto than some 🇺🇸Strategic BTC Reserve The latter is the state (doing nothing really), the former is the state (en)forcing workarounds & no, “positive BTC” ≠ “price↑”
AS PART OF HIS ESCALATING CRACKDOWN ON ILLEGALS, PRESIDENT TRUMP’S TREASURY HAS ISSUED A MEMO SAYING IT WILL START SEIZING REMITTANCES SENT ABROAD BY ILLEGAL ALIENS, WITH ANY SUSPICIOUS TRANSFERS OVER $2,000 TO BE FLAGGED.
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South Park predicted this…😥
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Btw- regarding US equity market intraday swings ↑↓ yesterday.. I mean, I really hate sounding like a broken record but.. Its NKY > 50k. Again. So I've been extremely ill🤒 for past idk at this point but its been absolutely miserable, can't even look at screens for long
Immediate term key level for global risk assets downside: NKY futures < 50k NKY →50k support stabilized broader 🌎 risk sell off yesterday but now those bids are filled Note- recently NKY did break just sub-50k before reversing↑ But a clear break↓ 50k on NKY futures means a
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@leadlagreport 🇯🇵capital doesn’t give a fuck about: •🇺🇸Powell employed, what the macro data is / if it even exists, if 🇺🇸gov is even open •🇬🇧Reeves’ tax flip flopping / not closing budget gap •🇫🇷Macron’s 500th “gov collapse” in past 12m 👆NONE of that compares to 🇯🇵’s REAL political💣💥🧨
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“Don’t go to 🇯🇵 it’s too dangerous!😰” 👆 This doesn’t match well with the 🇨🇳💪tough guy campaign already underway. Come on 🇨🇳- coordinate better 👇 🇨🇳Foreign Ministry has urged its citizens to temporarily refrain from traveling to Japan, stating that recent remarks by Japanese
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🇯🇵1540 Japan Gold ETF opens -11%, 13th highest notional traded stock (alongside usual heavily traded large caps like MUFG TEPCO & more than Sony Honda etc) This “gold ETF” (🇯🇵’s GLD) is/was +50% in a month vs spot gold & actual 🇺🇸GLD +10% That’s called risk asset froth in gold
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What a quick risk asset recovery Btw not that I give ½ a fuck, just amused/surprised w/ gold bugs (outlier fringe & N/A to most) very defensive “backlash” to my framing of gold ↔︎ risk asset You’re like the “NEVER SELL OR BUY ANYTHING ELSE” BTC maxipads if not worse At least
Immediate term key level for global risk assets downside: NKY futures < 50k NKY →50k support stabilized broader 🌎 risk sell off yesterday but now those bids are filled Note- recently NKY did break just sub-50k before reversing↑ But a clear break↓ 50k on NKY futures means a
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Aaron Rodgers has been taking a lot of the heat, but where has DK Metcalf been? Pro Football Football Show presented by @ChevyTrucks
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Immediate term key level for global risk assets downside: NKY futures < 50k NKY →50k support stabilized broader 🌎 risk sell off yesterday but now those bids are filled Note- recently NKY did break just sub-50k before reversing↑ But a clear break↓ 50k on NKY futures means a
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USDJPY → 160-handle before sub-150 🇯🇵PM Takaichi: “..it cannot be said that 🇯🇵 economy has escaped deflation” 🇯🇵MOF Katayama: “to some extent, weak JPY contributing to cost-push inflation… can’t deny disadvantages of weak JPY outweigh advantages” Net-net: the boss’
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This insane/creative/surreal idea has been floating around post-Lib Day: In order to (at least show efforts towards) reducing 🇺🇸↔︎🇯🇵 trade imbalance on goods… 🇯🇵Toyota (+Nissan maybe) will IMPORT 🇺🇸MADE Toyotas FROM 🇺🇸→🇯🇵 ..as that’s technically “🇺🇸made 🚗s on 🇯🇵roads”
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Toyota’s wild/creative idea to narrow the trade balance is: import 🇺🇸made 🚗Toyotas →🇯🇵. The “increase 🇺🇸made 🚗s on 🇯🇵roads” approach Honda apparently taking the “un-imbalancing of trade” approach- the removing of 🇯🇵🚗s off 🇺🇸roads.. Good luck with that long $TM / short $HMC
HONDA IS RECALLING 406,290 US VEHICLES – NHTSA
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🇯🇵NKY index reclaims >50k at close NKY futures > +2% off AM lows Short-lived risk-off turned risk-back-on it is then: Long indices, gold (you know, risk assets) immediate ~ short term Btw- see 🇯🇵PM chart: NDX & GC↑ as NKY↑, then↓ between NKY futures close~reopen Again. NKY
NKY futures back > 50k from 🇯🇵PM open, +2% off day lows at AM close Not a open new longs yet but it is a close shorts If NKY cash index can hold up & close >50k + futures keep upside beyond (i.e. not a ramp up into cash close → collapse), short lived risk off averted for now
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NKY futures back > 50k from 🇯🇵PM open, +2% off day lows at AM close Not a open new longs yet but it is a close shorts If NKY cash index can hold up & close >50k + futures keep upside beyond (i.e. not a ramp up into cash close → collapse), short lived risk off averted for now
Heads up: NKY futures break < 50k level Look out below, global risk assets Perhaps more important - at the moment there are no safe haven assets with any reliability Meaning if you hide in gold, JPY, bonds etc - & they happen to not plunge / go up while risk assets get hit - it
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@urani_umm Not necessarily - if NKY PM session reverses & can somehow recover to close back with a 50k handle, futures will keep the dip buying thru EU session & US opens down but then recovers flat/green on the day
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“JPY rallying” as much as “Gold rallying” - meaning, no they aren’t rallying in safe haven manner relative to the magnitude of risk selling Might as well say- should hide for safety in TOPIX Other Products sector 🇯🇵AM close SoftBank -14% Advantest -10% NKY 2x ETF -9.7% Lasertec
Heads up: NKY futures break < 50k level Look out below, global risk assets Perhaps more important - at the moment there are no safe haven assets with any reliability Meaning if you hide in gold, JPY, bonds etc - & they happen to not plunge / go up while risk assets get hit - it
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