(worthwhile) an insightful roundup:.UST market’s structure, chart @GoldmanSachs

USD Index.EM local #bonds also performed well, returning 12.3% in 1H2025, benefiting from a weaker US #Dollar and declining EM rates, chart @GoldmanSachs

That said, #Nvidia’s data center revenues as a share of total market capital spending are projected to hit levels reminiscent of past tech booms, and investors are eager to see #hyperscaler free cash flow (FCF) #margins reflect the benefits of this spending. .

The bet of the century: #hyperscaler capital spending on AI infrastructure: #AI capital spending is surging among hyperscalers such #Meta, #MSFT, Alphabet and #AMZN - a bold move with inherent risks, chart @JPMorganAM

This episode highlighted that market impacts of #geopolitical tensions tend to be short-lived unless worst-case scenarios - such as severe #commodity supply disruptions - materialize, notes @GoldmanSachs

Global bonds showed #resilience despite rising long-dated bond yields, driven by concerns about investor demand amid CB #QT programs and continued US fiscal expansion, chart @GoldmanSachs

The global fixed income landscape presents a rich opportunity due to macro dispersion and divergent CB policies. This creates relative value opportunities in DEM outside the US where the path for easing is clearer, chart @GoldmanSachs

While the latest #tariff news suggests an effective rate of 15%–20%, JPMorgan Research continues to believe some threats won’t stick. Their base case remains: #ETR will fall b/w 10% and 15% (with a modest drag on growth).

Investors are focusing on fundamentals over noise. #tariff headlines seem like more bark than bite, and markets have become desensitized to the flurry of announcements, notes @JPMorganAM

Should the average #tariff settle to lower amounts, businesses will have more flexibility to absorb the costs, pass them on to consumers, or some combination of the two, chart @yahoofinance

#deportationen with #stagflationary impulses - It is also possible Trump administration’s policies will weaken the US’ global #competitiveness in a way that will have longer-run consequences beyond what the authors have considered here.

The large drop in net #migration in 2025 compared with 2024 will result in significantly slower #labor force growth, slower employment growth, and a decrease in GDP growth of ca. 0.3-0.4%, chart @WendyEdelberg .

… particularly in the sectors where unauthorized #immigrants work—namely construction, #agriculture, and #leisure & #hospitality. In short, deportations are a #stagflationary impulse to the economy, resulting in lower #employment growth and higher #wage inflation.

Lowering the #labor force by 1mio will reduce the participation rate by 0.4%, which will lower the #unemployment rate, lower #job growth, and increase wage inflation, chart Torsten Sløk @apolloglobal

After months of seeing very little #inflation, US #consumers probably experienced slightly faster price growth in June as companies started to pass along the higher cost of imported merchandise associated with #tariffs - chart @economics

#doodle .A new #trade policy between the devil and the deep blue sea . #illusionist is pulling #tariffs from a hat – making objects appear or disappear …

As of 11 July 2025: .12 Month SARON OIS Swap Rate (Mid) ≈ –0.12 % .(Bid: –0.15 %, Ask: –0.09 %) chart @blkb_ch

#Swiss SARON OIS versus 10y #Swiss Govt bond yield, chart

What's wrong with this chart? #Swiss OIS swap rate (red line) is negative: -0.04346% - chart @FuW_News.

They are now about 28% higher than on #LME, making the traders’ punt - in essence buying at the LME price, #shipping to the US and selling at the US #Comex price - one of the most profitable #metals trades in recent decades.