Devesh Kayal
@_devesh_
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VP - Monarch AIF | Credit Card Enthusiast| Travel | Tech | Intellectually curious. Views are personal. Borrowed conviction can be dangerous
Mumbai
Joined December 2008
This is the EV flippening. Electric vehicles now fill up roughly as fast as gas. The new BYD chargers add 400km of range in just five minutes.
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Time for banks to push disbursement in housing loans given we are close to the bottom of the rate cycle
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And it continues in Q2 with some OEMs and EMS players reporting losses in RAC segment. All it needed was high base and a poor weather to pause the long term growth.
We are seeing the ripple effect in numbers of both OEMs and its suppliers
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Institutional investors activity can give you a hint on the name in some cases SW Solar block earlier had no domestic institutional name as a buyer. Bluejet had to do OFS instead of selling in block directly to MFs
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So sugar inventory in the system remains higher so pricing would be subdued Replacement costs have no value when there's excess supply in the system. OMCs received bids for 1700crs for 1050cr ltrs ethanol demand Govt would have to increase MSP to provide some relief
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Hard times for Sugar industry ahead - Production expected to normalise in current Sugar season - SAP prices increased higher than expected so RM costs goes up - Exports price at 5yr low so may not be viable - Molasses based Ethanol allocation by OMCs lower than last year
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While one is assigned as an associate and typically work on financial modelling, I would suggest to also try and go deep to understand the business. Unfortunately, that's where most of the mistakes are made when one goes through the learning curve.
As part of an initiative by a financial blogger, I was invited to write a letter to young analysts who are just starting out on this path. 15 years ago, I was lucky to have a great mentor in college who introduced me to the power of equity, and thereafter it was serendipity to
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Need some technological breakthrough in power intensive data centers
Power Dreams Dam Altman wants OPENAI to have 250 GW of data Center capacity by 2033. That is almost equal to India's pick demand.
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Auto Ancs are increasingly looking to collaborate with Chinese for technology. SJS, Pricol, Lumax group...
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I think by end of this year Trump would be done with imposing tariffs on each and everything existent on earth
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🚚 ✔️After much research, Govt has just released statistic that India's Logistics Cost is currently at 7.97% of GDP. Debunks 2 earlier held views : (1) That this cost was as high as 13-14% (2) Was a major 'competitive disadvantage.' Advanced economies have similar 7-8% costs
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Atlas Copco's (India) revenue growth over past 2yrs have been impressive. I wish this one had not delisted.
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We should see many such announcements to bypass high US tariff on India
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Logically after online gaming ban, this removal makes sense from Govt view
UBS on BSE - SEBI plans to raise tenure maturity of equity derivatives Believe if weekly expiries are removed, this could highly impact BSE' s profitability (as per UBSe: every 10% drop in options premium ADTO can impact 6% profitability) @CNBCTV18News @CNBCTV18Live
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Did you know - Kirloskar Oil Engines spent 210crs on R&D in FY25 !! Maybe they include product design and development expenses while others may not Astra Micro/Avantel from Defence and NRB Bearings from Cap Goods are other Co's who spends a decent amount on R&D given their size
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Hopefully Bharat Bijlee's transformer capacity comes on stream before Q1FY27 and motors margins stabilise. Also, FY25 ROIC (FA+WC) is 28% vs the 10% shown on Screener probably due to large cash equivalents and investments.
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TD Power and Ram Ratna highly likely of delivering while Pneumatic and Timken in the 12-15% range
Some Cap Goods names which can possibly grow it's earnings at 18-20% CAGR over FY25-28e 1) TD Power 2) Timken India 3) Kirloskar Pneumatic 4) Ram Ratna Wires Valuation could be slightly punchy in some names though
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Even then they found a way to screw shareholders!!
A listed company was routing 80%+ of its sales through a promoter-owned entity. Promoter entity running with just ₹20cr of fixed assets and minimal overhead was clocking 8% EBITDA margins. The listed entity? Sub-par margins vs peers. (1/n)
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