Gravedigger Capital
@_Gravedigger__
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#uranium
when liquidity returns to the sector its game over. No predictions on timing. Can tell you there is nothing significant on spot never mind the fuel cycle. We are truly at that point where a few hundred million dollars hitting the ask in a short period changes everything
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#uranium
Friendly reminder that Tier 1 producers havent been able to ramp up production on time & budget. Experienced mgmt teams restarting brownfield assets havent been able to either. Im sure inexperienced brownfield mgmt teams & greenfield developers have it all figured out
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#uranium
Grow a set and never play with leverage. Take a punch and get back up understanding you have done your work. Most shit is going down the toilet, the difference is this time only certain sectors will rebound
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#uranium
I was once given a piece of advice from someone who is way smarter than I am (a fund manager). Someone I will never match in accomplishments in life. I was told "Live in the counter argument" talk to everyone on the opposite side of your bet without prejudice.
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Officially a
#cancer
survivor today after 3 tough battles. Never feared death & accepted my fate. When diagnosed, was going to throw a fuck cancer party if this day came. But there is no taste left for that after this journey. Just humbled & thankful, with a chnaged perspective
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#Uranium
. Promised I will only tweet occasionally. This is an occasion. Folks have no idea why equities are ripping and physical isn't. Good luck picking a top. If you understand why this is happening, you then understand you have no idea of when is the top of this move
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Next person to quote Rick Rule and Uranium in the same sentence may get blocked. I have never blocked anyone for any reason before. Rick Rule is an extremely smart guy. But he knows fuck all about the uranium market. Please stop quoting him with regards to uranium. Its painful!
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#uranium
I am taking the under on global primary production (based on the "experts" prediction of 125 millons in 2022). I have way too many paths to be right. Transportation or mine restart issues are are not fully understood by the market.
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#uranium
Fuck the short term for a second, pumpers drive me nuts. Long term physical will get to a minimum $90.00/lbs by 2024. The longer the utilities wait the more the price will spike. I believe we will spike higher. Grab every H2 2022+ warrant you can get your hands on
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Cant believe I am doing this but will make my first
#gold
investment in 11 yrs. Doing a financing in what should be a very tight float pre IPO exploration co. Dont talk names so please dont ask. I hate betting against the house but PM equity prices are just too cheap vs. physical
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Logical well thought out bearish view. This can happen. My issue is I believe we go way past +$100 uranium px in the upcoming spike. Described current over priced at $85 equities (agreed depending on the equity) looks cheap @ $150). No new supply means equity pxs are higher
On Uranium equities, I’ve had a chance to think about some mechanics and flows involved here, and I fear people need to be much more cautious in the near term.
Note I am not talking about the U3O8 spot px - everyone including utilities, CCJ, KAP are short.
$URNM $URNJ $URA
1/21
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I love all the new talking heads in
#uranium
who have no fucking clue what they are talking about. Not calling you out but be fucking happy you got the bottom and STFU. Enjoy the ride and dont tell me how much you know.
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LMFAO. I may be the last guy who doesn't block folks on twitter. Take your best shot. Im a two time cancer survivor. My PMs are open game for posting but means your are scum. Still wont block you. Its all about perspective.
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#uranium
Some pretty wild rumors swirling around. Will be interesting to get behind the reasoning and if any can be second sourced
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Not going to be popular. But Toronto is the most lockdown city in NA by far. Why are tennis courts chained & golf courses closed (two independent outdoor sports) but Costco and international flights are open. Remember this is for our safety and this makes sense.
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861 days ago I made a bet with a
#uranium
spot px at $30.00. Px finished at 92.50 (2.50 off) my bet (will be 15 days short of my price target). Arrived back at home & happy to arrange payment to the charity of choice. My opponent was a known bull & wishes to remain anonymous
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4) It means you have done your work & your thesis is right. Enjoy the ride folks
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#uranium
What happens to the price when a force majeure occurs in any part of the fuel cycle from a supplier? This is a real possibility (not a certainty) over the next 2 to 3 years
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#thread
#uranium
#nuclear
Careful out there. Most folks with negative opinions on the
@cameconews
& Brookfield JV are traders with short term options that will expire or were looking for a safe pure play with volume to trade out of (on the next leg up). Cameco just leveled up &
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Dont care when the last
#Canadian
election was, Im up for another one. We had no issue wasting $100s of millions 6 months ago on a useless unnecessary election. Lets do it again for a more necessary one. When does Trudeau face a non confidence vote based on the past week
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Who gives a fuck how far uranium prices have dropped over the last 2 weeks unless you are a trader. Too many folks trying to read Sprotts daily purchases. How many lbs are they buying in the next 12 mths? When in doubt pause & look long term. Then relax
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#fintwit
is way undervalued as a platform. Its like shopping in a thrift store. Tons of junk. But if you spend some time and wade through all the crap, there is plenty of free worthwhile content that will save you time. Also an amazing networking tool.
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Good morning
#uranium
shorts and carry traders. Single file lines with some social distancing to the exits please
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#uranium
2025-2026 is a mess for utility supply & demand. 2026 on is a punt depending on how high prices get prior. Transportation, fuel cycle issues & brownfield restarts will not happen on time or on budget. Good luck with Greenfields. Lots of promises but few can deliver
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#uranium
Where are all the folks who told me McA had geological issues and would never get back into production? The same folks were telling you Sabre technology won't work in the basin for Orano and Denision. Careful out there in utwit who you listen to. Lotta book talkers
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6) Dont think most comprehend the talent, luck, capital, & experience needed to execute. So many folks think their asset/company they invested in will produce (produce cost effectively). Price needs to go parabolical to incentivize new production & talent with in the next 2 years
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#uranium
when you know, you know. My guess is we are much higher in 24 months from now. Folks looking to pick the bottom good luck. You are smarter than I. Im happy with my financings and warrants over the past 10 months to ride the next leg up
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Life is hard as
#uranium
investor. Get used to pain. Think there may have been 3 months in the last 6 years I have relished my investment thesis even though my returns are outstanding. Keep grinding. Check out, tomorrow does not give a fuck about yesterday failures or sucesss
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After moving to a new country, new culture & new language with my 2 kids alone, a very close friend was diagnosed with cancer. Will be a tough fight. As a 2x cancer survivor I sat down a cried for my first time in years. Appreciate the family you choose to include into your life
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#thread
8 yrs ago I owned 3 businesses & worked 70 hr weeks with a 1 & 3 yr old. Was diagnosed with cancer & battled it twice (chemo, three surgeries, etc.). The greatest gift I have ever received. Chance to do a real life audit at 38. Few get that opportunity so early in life.
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#uranium
Two yrs ago Rosatom was promising utes at major sector conferences that they are an "all-in-one" solution to meet their entire fuel cycle needs from cradle to grave. A one stop shop. Love to tell you how smart I am as this thesis is sound but sometimes you just get lucky
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Huge. Approximately 1% of global demand saved if true. Will also change the strategy for large US
#nuclear
utilities looking at their existing fleet (what will possibly be operable that was thought will not be) and fuel requirements for these units moving forward
Lawmakers & Exelon Have Reached Tentative Agreement To Keep Nuclear Fleet Open in Illinois
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FYI
Ukraine/Belarus/Russia Share of Global Exports:
Potash (Fertilizer): 35%
Urea (Fertilizer): 15%
Wheat: 25%
Barley: 24%
Corn: 13%
So about a 20/25% of fertilizer and wheat and 13% or corn with a global 25% inflation on food YOY. The world is about to become very hungry.
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You will either change your mind after the discussion or harden your stance. After 7 years in this sector as a
#uranium
short in 2016, and a long afterwards I know most folks and what they know. The uranium price is moving up from here
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1)
#uranium
Been a while since I have thrown bones out there for Twitter. Spot at $29 +/- cents & between today & 3 wks from now is bottom for timing & px. This call is not based on charts & please dont ask me why (Im getting soft as I age and am asking please now)
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@808sandU3O8
is a friend. We dont agree on everything but I respect him. Smartest guy in the room. Stand up guy & dont like to see him attacked. We are just investment tourist, renters with an exit strategy no matter what the damage. Some folks have a career in this sector
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#Thread
#truckersconvoy2022
I an double vaxxed. Always want to be on the right side of history no matter the cost. I support our Canadian Truckers. The first group to actually stand up to the govt & fight for rights no matter what the consequences or costs. Imagine doctors or
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#uranium
Cos receiving a premium SP either have an asset ready for production in this cycle or are active with M&A. If you are a CEO & your company ticks neither box, good luck to you. You will lag your peers. The tent
@SmithWeekly
& I have built is growing. Dont get left behind
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#thread
Some life goals I try to follow and will continue in 2022.
1) Try to eat healthy
2) Work from home or no longer than a 15 minute commute each way
3) Find a gym within a 5 minutes from your home
4) Find or work on keeping an amazing life partner
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Im double vaxxed. Yet I still have a hard time to have someone logically explain to me why we need vax passports to get a job and eat at a restaurant. Why MSM has completely dodged covering the opposite side of the argument on vaccinations or folks opposed. We live in scary times
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Time is the greatest asset you will ever own. Its limited in quantity & demanded from many. All other assets you acquire in life can be bought. No amount of money in the world can buy additional time. You get what you are given.
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#uranium
. Some folks think restarts are easy. They are starting to find out nothing comes easily
3) looks like obvious political risk (didnt 4 years ago), the neglect in maintenance (everywhere), supply chain issues & the ability to restart & meet production targets (for various reasons), the lack of talent (trust me, u-twit gives far more credit to these folks then they
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#uranium
I had low, medium, and high S/D projections 4 years ago. We have blown through the high a long time ago. Never mind what new demand may occur. But what do i know?
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I always vote. Dragged my kids to polling stations every election since they were toddlers at every political level. Consider it my civic duty. The next 24 mths I will be voting with my feet. Not in a rush. Doing it legally & properly. Taking my time to find the next home country
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shhhh If you listen carefully & keep your eyes open you'll start to notice the initial quiet tip toeing (positioning) of institutional investors entering the
#uranium
equity space (written about & not). They are a migratory animal & have not been around these parts for some time
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Some
#uranium
management teams are slowly (proportionally) exiting their positions well in the money knowing they will never produce, while others are looking for opportunities. On a present AISC "razors edge" this is what you get. Know what you own and what your micro thesis is
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@BambroughKevin
The largest
#uranium
catalyst if this trust is managed properly (I am assuming it will be with Sprott running it) so far this year.
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What could possibly be the greatest obituary ever written, and this is coming from the gravedigger. What a way to be sent off, with humor
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Food for thought. If I told you two and a half years ago McA, Cigar, Namibia, and Kazatomprom would all be closed/on a skeleton crew and the price of spot
#uranium
would still be under $29 you would call me crazy
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This will continue to age well
#uranium
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They are your legacy and should be your greatest achievement in life. The best return you will ever get on your investment of time and energy. Always remember you are just a link on a lineage chain. Real family wealth is created when the next link is stronger than the last
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#uranium
Next generalist new to the sector institutional guy I meet on a conf. call who tells me he was invested in 2008 & understands the thesis I am going to hang up on. Love guys throwing out 15 y/o street cred. It's nothing like the last bull cycle & I was around for the last
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I suspect this bet may payoff 12 months early. If not will be close end of 2022 and I am sure most folks think I am insane. I love it!
3) In my case, if I win, my $10,000.00 CAD will go to my charity as well. Should you win, your money will be returned to you to do whatever you choose to with it. The bet will be simplified to, we will see $95.00 spot price on an individual day through any price reporter on of
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15 years ago my world changed. Since then I have lost almost all the generations of family older than me. They were my past, my memories. Appreciate family while you have them in your life. I am lucky to have an amazing family to create memories in the present.
Out of town on business. Got a rare chance to visit my mothers grave site. A yellow rose was her favorite flower. Appreciate family.
You dont know what you got till its gone.
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Congratulations
#uranium
twitter. The lag time between macro information known and that same information being posted on twitter is drastically compressing. More folks are grinding it out and doing their homework/fieldwork. Still more out there, keep digging
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Nobody I know has a clue how
#uranium
get delivered to meet demand in 2026 & beyond without way higher prices & continued execution on producing mines, brownfield restarts, & some new greenfield. Anybody check to see how brownfield & green field is going? But what do we know?
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@quakes99
Well done my old friend. Knew you would be a hit on twitter with your work ethic and the generosity of the time you are willing to give to folks. John Quakes is your success story. I continue to be amazed by it.
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3) Have an exit strategy (I am not sharing mine but its not now), buckle up and enjoy the ride!
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I will post this fully understanding I may lose my ability to hold a twitter account moving forward. I am double vaxxed and this is not "anti vaxxer" propaganda. This is the way health systems should be run. Japanese data is some of the "cleanest" globally
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2) folks trying to figure out what happens if it goes below premium over NAV tomorrow and I laugh. These questions need to be asked way later in the cycle. This is the commodities sector folks. Hate to spoil it but there is an exit strategy. Its just not now. Enjoy the ride!
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1) Had a chance to speak privately with my old friend
@quakes99
& asked if he needed anything. He said to tell all that its a copyright violation on 5 tweets btn Dec 2017-Mar 2018 that were missed when removing all UxC content as requested. An appeal has been made to Twitter
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#uranium
Seen some wild posts lately from heavily followed twitter accounts that are tourists to the sector. Wont call out names. When I started my business apprenticeship, I kept my mouth shut, my eyes & ears open. When I research at a new sector, I practice the same philosophy
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#uranium
protip. I know multiple, yes let me repeat multiple, guys on Twitter with less than 150 followers that understand this sector better than folks who have 1000's. They are unknown & won't tell you fuck all. Thats why they have so few. Dont shoot me, Im just the messenger
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Those who don't understand the
#uranium
thesis timeline let me help you. Real bull market moves were never going to start in 2019. Could start in last H2020. Likely to start in 2021. Definitely will start in 2022. Black swan/political events can occur prior. Invest accordingly
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I just want to congratulate all those that have been on the
#tin
trade for the past couple of years. Some very smart folks doing some very good/hard work. Enjoy your success, well deserved
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#uranium
Some charlatans have left this space recently. No worries they are still on youtube & new ones will join. Retail are sheep & can always be fleeced. Plenty of experts out there. I can count on less than two hands the real ones. Most don't talk & all are still on twitter.
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Been busy doing the same over the last 3 months. Wake me up in 2 years from now & lets see how this batch of stocks & warrants do. My bet is its time to do some island shopping at that point. In the meantime, keep your head down & do the work in the sector & pick up a new hobby
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These folks do their work
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Surround yourself with the right people and anything is possible. Birds of a feather flock together.
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Bet has been accepted 1 very generous person on Twitter who is an
#uranium
bull. A hedge on their investment (at or over $95 and they are happy to donate, under and they dont pay). Gave the option for this person to be public or be anonymous. The latter was chosen. Best of luck
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There are not many knowledgeable folks in the
#uranium
twitter community that have shared more than
@808sandU3O8
. I sure haven't. If you are not following and reaching out to this guy you are doing it all wrong
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We are just at the start of the ascent in the price of
#uranium
. As spot prices rise & mobile at $X has been cleared out, some new material will be available at higher prices. There has already been a slight volume increase in selling from folks who usually do very little
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Had a disagreement with my oldest friend. Known him since I was 2 y/o (44 yrs ago). Be honest. If the friendship is real it will last. Tomorrow if we weren't in lockdown I would take him out for dinner. If you cant speak your mind freely with someone they are not a real friend
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Will offend most. Folks with COVID working the mines in Saskatchwan on Potash & Oil & Gas & nobody gives a fuck (exaggerated but not far from the truth). Cigar has less than 1% chance of closing again. The
#uraniam
thesis doesn't need it. Look forward. Cases don't matter anymore.
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The most relevant M&A in the sector for many years. Dewey Burdock is a real asset. Very accretive deal! Congratulations to 2 amazing management teams who understand how this needs to work moving forward. Congratulations
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#thread
Almost 100% of my stock investment portfolio is in
#uranium
as of April/May 2020. If I felt like I need to diversify
#copper
would have been pick 2. USD valuation, inflation, S/D, sector rotations into
#commodities
/
#energy
all played a role in my decision process.
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Disclosure for those who are wondering. I have a 7 figure bet on certain commodities over the next 4 years. Rather than pat myself on the back, 95% of my research is based on why my bet is wrong. I fully understand the bull theory, as well as the bear, & never feel comfortable
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Strategically Trudeau's screwed. He deserves to be in this position. All over the world countries are reducing/ eliminating some/all vax mandates. Drop them & the truckers win & he looks weak. Keep them & he looks like he's a tyrant. Probably a good time to get covid & hide
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#thread
#3yearaudit
In 2014, at 39 yrs of age, I was diagnosed with cancer. Sold all my business but 1 & retired. This was my goal when I started my first business out of university. But I was bored as fuck with no purpose (nobody tells you this when you retire too early).
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Now do
#uranium
. Any guesses? Then add future supply and demand models. Someone told me $200 uranium spot presently couldn't incentivize new production instantly. I actually believe them
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3) experts, the WSB & reddit crowds, & Twitter
#uranium
eyes & I cringe & then I smile. Folks throwing on uranium eyes I had never expected too. Doing their victory lap. I have learned over time this is all part of the process when you are early. Accept it & embrace it.
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"To get something you never had, you have to do something you never did". Throughout my life I have found this statement to always be true
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2) market turns & you try to restart production in that same market of no price discovery is the structural supply deficits, the opaqueness of the market, the end of subsidies (think mega tons for mega watts), the transportation issues for over 40% of U308 & EUP through what now
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3) looks like obvious political risk (didnt 4 years ago), the neglect in maintenance (everywhere), supply chain issues & the ability to restart & meet production targets (for various reasons), the lack of talent (trust me, u-twit gives far more credit to these folks then they
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