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Change of births in the Balkans by provinces in last 4 years compared to previous 4 years.
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TFR in municipalities of Netherlands in 2021.
Second map shows Orthodox Calvinist schools in 2012.
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TFR in Italy.
First map: average number of children from women born in 1940, 1950, 1960, 1970
Second map: TFR in Italy 2021 (darker color doesn't mean it is good but that is not that awful like in other parts)
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It is interesting how quickly demographics can change.
Few years ago no one would believe that 🇧🇬 and 🇷🇸 will have higher TFR than 🇹🇷 in 2023.
Also ratio of birth between 🇬🇷 and 🇷🇸+RS was 1.49 in 2008 and 1.03 in last year (if we add 🇲🇪 to the last it changed from 1.36 to 0.94)
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Result of SGP (Calvinist party) and right-wing combined on Dutch elections by municipalities.
Compared to map of TFR in 2021 we can see that lowest TFR in most cases is in municipalities where right-wing is weakest.
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Places with over 1.000 inhabitants on Census 1953 and 2022 in 🇷🇸
Result of massive emigration from villages after WW2 and low TFR in most of villages (below replacement rate).
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% of 3rd and higher birth order among newborns in 🇷🇸 for period 2015-2018 and 2019-2022 (only among Serbian mothers, so this is without minorities).
This increase is probably main reason why TFR increased in this period and also why drop of births wasn't drastic.
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Croatia - Census 2021
Average number of children. There is not much change in number of kids for women who already have kids but there is increase of childlessness with lower total average.
Among women born in 1940's childlessness was 7.8%, and among women born 1970's is 16.9%
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On 1 women 30-34 years old there were 1.35 children 0-4 years old in 🇷🇸 on Census 2011.
On Census 2022 that ratio was 1.57
Here is how it looks by municipalities in 2011 and 2022.
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TFR of some municipalities in 🇳🇱
First part of table are municipalities with significant Calvinist (SGP party won >10% on last elections), and second part are biggest cities in Netherlands.
At the bottom there is explanation what % next to name of municipality means.
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Demographics of Denmark 2022 in maps. Source is Statistics Denmark.
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Here is table that compares TFR with election results.
First group places where right-wing won >50%.
Second group places where right-wing won <20% and strongest party is centre-left/left-wing. Where VVD was strongest are not included
Result of SGP (Calvinist party) and right-wing combined on Dutch elections by municipalities.
Compared to map of TFR in 2021 we can see that lowest TFR in most cases is in municipalities where right-wing is weakest.
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Top 10 most registered baby names in 2022 in Serbia 🇷🇸
♂️ Luka, Lazar, Vasilije, Bogdan, Vuk, Stefan, Aleksa, Vukan, Mihajlo, Pavle
♀️ Sofija, Dunja, Mila, Teodora, Sara, Una, Nađa, Milica, Helena, Maša
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Average number of children to women 40-49 years old by ethnicity of mother on Census 2022 in Serbia.
For whole country there are all ethnicities which have data and for regions only those ethnicities with over 500 women in age group 40-49.
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@BirthGauge
Federation BiH: livebirths
Jan-Mar 2023: 3,455
Jan-Mar 2024: 3,264 (-5.53%)
Republika Srpska: livebirths
Jan-Mar 2023: 1,986
Jan-Mar 2024: 2,067 (+4.08%)
FBih vs RS - ratio of births
Jan-Mar 2023: 1.74
Jan-Mar 2024: 1.58
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Something different from demography.
Strongest party by constituency in Germany on elections 2021 vs today projection (Wahlkreisprognose)
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TFR of states in USA and average margin of victory on last 3 elections.
States in which Republican candidates won by biggest margin have highest TFR and states in which Democrat candidates won by biggest margin have lowest TFR with some exceptions.
Similar pattern to Netherlands
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TFR in some of these municipalities in last few years, compared to Netherlands national TFR.
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Не видим неки смисао увођења мера за 5 и 6 дете. Боље је додатно побољшати мере за 2 и 3 с обзиром да је већи потенцијал у смањењу броја породица са једним дететом него у повећању оних са 5+
Породице са 5+ деце полако постају реткост и у Африци.
Наравно, ово је само моје мишљење.
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Average no. of children ever born to women aged 50-54, 45-49 and 40-44 in Russia on Census 2021
Women 40-44 have highest average so in general there is improvement despite still being bad. For women 35-39 is 1.61 so they can be higher than 40-44
Urban areas much worse than rural
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Births in municipalities of BiH by ethnicity of mother (unknowns and undeclared are excluded, although wouldn't make much difference).
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Approximate TFR by municipalities of Serbia (2021). I used data from vital statistics and made some corrections based on Census 2022 (big cities have overestimated births in vital statistics).
Some municipalities have few births so their TFR can vary lot from year to year.
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% of population that immigrated to 🇷🇸 from ex-Yu countries (left map) and from other countries (right map) according Census 2022.
From other countries are counted also returnees from W. Europe. That is reason why eastern Serbia is so high (many of them are probably pensioners).
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In most places in Serbia families with 3+ children are now more common than 40 years ago. Exception are places which then had high proportion of large families.
On the other side this is pretty much annuled by rise of childlessnes.
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Number of people declared as Atheists in 🇷🇸 fallen from 80,053 to 74,139 between Census 2011 and 2022.
However their % among those who declared religion slightly increase from 1.17% to 1.21%.
Here is % of Atheists in municipalities in 2022 (among those who declared religion)
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Some historical data. Total fertility rate (TFR) in Kingdom of Serbia calculated from Census 1890 data by age and sex was 5.63. Here are data by administrative divisions.
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@BirthGauge
According this Turkey had 1,047,975 births in 2021 (1,112,859 was in 2020 which is drop of 5,83%).
TFR from 1,76 to 1,66
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TFR in 2022 in Serbia.
First value is official estimate, while value is bracket is value if we correct differences among children on Census vs vital stat.
Due administrative errors small cities are underestimated in vital stat. so second value is probably closer to real situation
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TFR by municipalities in Serbia with correction from Census data.
Some small municipalities can vary lot from year to year because 10-20 births changes a lot, but this is what we have for 2022.
Yellow is about national average, more red is worse, and more green is better.
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TFR in urban areas of Serbia is low but growing and better than most of Europe and that is probably the main reason why Serbian TFR is rising.
Rural TFR should be better, especially in few districts. Some villages are showing that TFR over 2 is achievable.
Last one for vital statistics of Serbia in 2022. TFR by urban and rural places for districts (again corrected by Census data).
Villages in eastern Serbia still have pretty low TFR, problem that last for almost a century.
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% тзв. грађанске и националне опозиције на изборима 2022 по општинама. У ,,грађанску'' сам рачунао УЗС, Морамо и СДС, а у ,,националну'' НАДУ, Двери, Заветнике и ДЈБ.
ЗЗВ нисам ставио код првих јер су били мањинска листа, а СРС код других зато што нема никакве сарадње међу њима.
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🇲🇪 again has more 1st grade pupils than birts in that generation.
Northern region obviously has high emigration, mostly to the coast, capital of Podgorica and probably 🇷🇸
Coastal region has high immigration, probably there also lot of 🇷🇺 and 🇺🇦
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Last post in this year.
Population of Serbia at the end of 19th century and beginning of 20th (in borders before Balkan wars).
WW1 was devastating for its population and it is pretty safe to say that population without WW1 would be about 30% higher in 1921 than it was.
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I've analyzed births in last decade in Dutch municipalities where conservative Calvinist party (SGP) won more than 5% in last elections. Those municipalities mostly have better performance than country most probably because of Calvinists.
It's detailed, summarized in last table
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@BirthGauge
Serbia: livebirths
Jan-Apr 2023: 19,230
Jan-Apr 2024: 19,372 (+0.74%)
April 2023: 4,304
April 2024: 4,849 (+12.66%)
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@BirthGauge
Final birth data for 2022 (vs 2021)
Bosnia and Herzegovina: 26,516 (-1.77%)
Bosniaks: 13,831 (-2.28%)
Serbs: 8,721 (-1.90%)
Croats: 2,678 (-3.84%)
Others, undeclared and unknown: 1,286 (+10.39%)
Here is last 10 years for country, entities and Distrikt Brčko.
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Average birth order in BiH 2022
Federation BiH: 1.82
USK: 1.85
PK*: 1.80
TK: 1.71
ZDK: 1.83
BPK: 2.02
SBK**: 1.93
HNK**: 1.93
ZHK*: 2.05
KS: 1.73
K10*: 2.14
*Croat majority canton
**Mixed canton
Rest are Bosniak majority
Republika Srpska: 1.81
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Last one for vital statistics of Serbia in 2022. TFR by urban and rural places for districts (again corrected by Census data).
Villages in eastern Serbia still have pretty low TFR, problem that last for almost a century.
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@BirthGauge
Republika Srpska: livebirths (prel.)
Jan-Sep 2022: 6,238
Jan-Sep 2023: 6,330 (+1.88%)
Jul-Sep 2022: 2,318
Jul-Jun 2023: 2,348 (+1.29%)
In fin. data there are 8-9% more births. Probably in prl. they don't count births from RS occured in maternity hospitals in Serbia
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Children under 14 years old in Serbia by settlements on Census 2022.
Another picture is relief map of Serbia which shows that far worst situation is mostly in remote mountain villages of SE Serbia which doesn't have any youth. Their colapse started in 1960's with mass emigration
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Youth in Serbia - trust in institutions (rating from 1 to 5): 2018 - 2023
Army: 2.8 - 2.8
Church: 2.1 - 2.7
Police: 2.3 - 1.74
Media: 1.6 - 1.53
President: 1.6 - 1.48
Government: 1.7 - 1.43
Parliament: 1.7 - 1.41
Political parties: 1.5 - 1.32
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@BirthGauge
Republika Srpska: livebirths (final)
2022: 9,118
2023: 9,309 (+2.10%)
Share of 3rd children grew from 14.4% to 14.9% and 4th+ from 4.6% to 5.6%
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Children in rural areas of 🇷🇸🇲🇰🇧🇬 on last Censuses.
Also we can see trend in last 10 years (0-4 vs 5-9 years old).
🇷🇸🇧🇬 has green areas (increase of children in rural areas), although 🇷🇸 obviously have more children on villages (except eastern part where is also worst trend).
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@BirthGauge
Serbia - final data for 2022 shows 62,700 births (+0.84% vs 2021) and TFR 1.64
Births by ethnicity (vs 2021)
Serbs: 51,840 (+534)
Romani: 3,195 (+21)
Bosniaks: 2,276 (+264)
Hungarians: 1,376 (-146)
Albanians: 652 (+11)
Muslims: 515 (-22)
Slovaks: 314 (-70)
Croats: 235 (-23)
...
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@BirthGauge
Republika Srpska: livebirths (preliminary)
2022: 8,381
2023: 8,457 (+0.91%)
Oct-Dec 2022: 2,143
Oct-Dec 2023: 2,127 (-0.75%)
Republika Srpska had 9,118 births in final data 2022. For last year final data will be published on 25th april.
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Interethnic marriages in 1990 and 2021 (undeclared and unknowns are excluded here, although wouldn't change much).
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@BirthGauge
Federation BiH: livebirths (prel.)
Jan-Sep 2022: 11,624
Jan-Sep 2023: 11,418 (-1.77%)
Sep 2022: 1,564
Sep 2023: 1,406 (-10.10%)
Birth ratio FBiH vs Rep. Srpska: Jan-Sep
2017: 2.08
2018: 2.02
2019: 1.94
2020: 1.92
2021: 1.93
2022: 1.86
2023: 1.80
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Final data of Serbian Census 2022 show 6.647.003 inhabitants. Here are data for ethnicity which are only released for now.
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Republika Srpska had 9,118 births in 2022 (-1.68% vs 2021)
Births by ethnicity of mother (vs 2021)
Serbs: 8,260 (-1.69%)
Bosniaks: 470 (-6.19%)
Croats: 62 (-32.61%)
Others: 71 (+20.34%)
Undeclared and unknown: 255 (+15.91%)
Here you can find data
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One table that showing how villages in Zaječar district (eastern Serbia) are dying out much faster than in other parts of Serbia. Drop of youth is crazy😲
At the end of 19th century these villages were among larger in country. Youth from Census 1890 largely died during WW1...
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@BirthGauge
Montenegro: livebirths
Jan-May 2022: 2,670
Jan-May 2023: 2,791 (+4.53%)
May 2022: 522
May 2023: 594 (+13.79%)
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Some historical data before new results of Serbian census which will be released in two days.
Approximate TFR in Yugoslavia in 1936 (and vital index 1936-1939) and 1971.
There are not detailed data for births so exact TFR cannot be counted but approximate can.
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% of ethnicities by Serbian oblasts in last 3 censuses. Undeclared und unknown are excluded from this analysis.
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@BirthGauge
Croatia: livebirths
Jan-Mar 2023: 8,124
Jan-Mar 2024: 7,934 (-2.34%)
March 2023: 2,771
March 2024: 2,518 (-9.13%)
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@BirthGauge
Serbia: livebirths
Jan-Aug 2022: 40,244
Jan-Aug 2023: 40,376 (+0.33%)
Aug 2022: 5,855
Aug 2023: 5,891 (+0.62%)
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In 2022/23 there were 381 more pupils in 1st grade than there was births in 2016 in Montenegro.
Visible migration from north to coast. Some places on coast has huge growth of pupils vs births, my guess because of Russian and Ukrainian kids. Difference was lower in earlier years.
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@BirthGauge
Republika Srpska: livebirths (prel.)
Jan-Jun 2022: 3,920
Jan-Jun 2023: 3,982 (+1.58%)
Apr-Jun 2022: 1,930
Apr-Jun 2023: 1,996 (+3.42%)
In final data there are 8-9% more births. I guess that in prel. they don't count births from RS occured in maternity hospitals in Serbia.
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Here is detailed average birth order by municipality for Serbia in 2017-2019 and 2020-2022
Distribution of births by birth order (whether it is a first, second, etc. birth) by countries in 2021 (or 2020 or 2019, depending on what the most recent figures are). There are some interesting patterns that plain TFR numbers aren't showing.
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First map show average number of children from women born in different decades and second map show average number only for women who gave birth.
For women born in 1970's there will be small change since women from 40-44 still have children.
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First grade pupils in 2023/24 vs births in generation that started school according vital statistics in Serbia.
We can see that Belgrade is overrated in vital statistics while some districts are underrated.
Also pretty large difference in municipalities with minority population.
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@BirthGauge
>66% Orthodox places
Jan-Sep 2022: 3,645
Jan-Sep 2023: 3,839 (+5.32%)
Mixed places
Jan-Sep 2022: 809
Jan-Sep 2023: 795 (-1.73%)
>66% Bosniak places
Jan-Sep 2022: 372
Jan-Sep 2023: 328 (-11.83%)
>66% Albanian places
Jan-Sep 2022: 299
Jan-Sep 2023: 284 (-5.02%)
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Медији пишу како је све мање студената на државним факултетима. Спомињу пуно разлога за то, али изостављају можда и главни, демографију.
Генерације које сада уписују факултет су доста малобројније, а број места на факултетима је остао исти.
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@BirthGauge
Livebirths - City of Belgrade
Residence of mother in Belgrade
Jan 2023: 1,468
Jan 2024: 1,516 (+3.3%)
Residence of mother outside of Belgrade but gave birth in maternity hospital in Belgrade
Jan 2023: 272
Jan 2024: 304 (+11.8%)
Data for whole 🇷🇸 will be published on Monday
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Промена броја бирача на дан 23.10.2023. у односу на прошлогодишње изборе.
На основу демографских параметара једино реални раст могу имати већински бошњачке општине, НС и поједине општине Београда.
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Serbia - Census 2022
Occupied dwellings by occupancy status
Ownership: 87.3%
Rent: 6.3%
Relatives: 6.0%
Other and unknown 0.3%
% of houses/apartments under the rent by municipality in the map
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@BirthGauge
Serbia: livebirths (preliminary)
Jan-Feb 2023: 10,083
Jan-Feb 2024: 10,088 (+0.05%)
Feb 2023: 4,682
Feb 2024: 4,777 (+2.03%)
Since Feb 2024 had one more day it is actually drop of 1.48% on daily basis.
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Average birth order of Roma mothers compared to total average birth order in districts of Serbia for two periods.
Roma mothers have quite more children on average but we can see that in most districts their average is decreasing while in total we see increase.
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Ratio 0-14 vs 15-29 years old in Serbia
2002 - 2011 - 2022
Serbs: 0.76 - 0.74 - 0.89
Hungarians: 0.74 - 0.72 - 0.85
Bosniaks: 1.00 - 1.05 - 1.03
Romani: 1.21 - 1.29 - 1.17
Albanians: 1.27 - / - 0.72
Slovaks: 0.80 - 0.77 - 0.83
Croats: 0.70 - 0.62 - 0.77
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@BirthGauge
>80% Orthodox municipalities have increase of 6% of births (similar with mixed municipalities) while majority Muslim municipalities have drop of 7% births in first five months.
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@MoreBirths
In 🇲🇪 68% of young adults 25-34 years old lives with parents and TFR will be >1.8 this year while in 🇫🇮 4% of young adults 25-34 years old lives with parents and TFR will be <1.3 this year so obviosly it is not same in different cultures.
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By looking on results of Spanish elections it seems that right-left wing ratio is pretty much similar as on elections 1936.
National bloc on elections 1936 won 46.5% and now centre-right+right wing parties combined about 46%.
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@BirthGauge
Montenegro: livebirths
Jan-Aug 2022: 4,518
Jan-Aug 2023: 4,670 (+3.36%)
Aug 2022: 626
Aug 2023: 612 (-2.24%)
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Estimated TFR of >85% Serbian villages in KiM on censuses 1971 and 1991 (only villages south of Ibar river and with >500 inhabitants at that time).
Serbs in KiM had solid TFR which was pretty much higher than among Serbs in other parts of ex-Yu.
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@BirthGauge
Montenegro: livebirths
Jan-Sep 2022: 5,125
Jan-Sep 2023: 5,246 (+2.36%)
Sep 2022: 586
Sep 2023: 565 (-3.58%)
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@BirthGauge
Montenegro: livebirths (preliminary)
2022: 7,008
2023: 7,002 (-0.09%)
Dec 2022: 646
Dec 2023: 557 (-13.78%)
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In 2023/24 there were 27,783 pupils in 1st grade in 🇧🇦 (7.58% less than births in 2017).
Drop in Federation BiH was 8.65%, in Republika Srpska 3.28% and in Brčko district 28.73 (due bad birth data here).
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Average no. of born children to women 50-54, 45-49 and 40-44 years old in 🇨🇿
Contrary to 🇷🇺 average has decreased among 40-44 vs 50-54 but still is higher (among 50-54 it was 0.3 higher and among 40-44 is 0.1 higher)
Quite low childlessness rate among these generations in 🇨🇿
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Како је изгледала интеграција досељеника у другој половини 19. века у Србији.
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@BirthGauge
Serbia: livebirths
Jan-Jun 2022: 29,334
Jan-Jun 2023: 29,203 (-0.45%)
June 2022: 5,163
June 2023: 5,003 (-3.10%)
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@BirthGauge
Serbia: livebirths
Jan-Mar 2023: 14,926
Jan-Mar 2024: 14,523 (-2.70%)
March 2023: 4,843
March 2024: 4,435 (-8.42%)
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@BirthGauge
Serbia: livebirths
2021: 62.062
2022: 62.250 (+0,30%)
Dec 2021: 5.414
Dec 2022: 5.443 (+0,54%)
These are preliminary results, final data in July.
It seems that rural areas will increase their share among newborns for 7th year in a row since Belgrade had less births than 2021.
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@BirthGauge
Serbia: livebirths
Jan-May 2022: 24,171
Jan-May 2023: 24,200 (+0.12%)
May 2022: 5.007
May 2023: 4.970 (-0.74%)
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@BirthGauge
Serbia: livebirths
Jan-Oct 2022: 51,401
Jan-Oct 2023: 50,964 (-0.85%)
Oct 2022: 5,462
Oct 2023: 5,413 (-0.90%)
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% of births in 🇩🇰 by origin of mother in last 15 years. Origin of mother is divided by this UN geographical regions.
Among mothers of foreign origins are both those who are immigrants and those who are descendants of immigrants.
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@VladimirStev
БМ 34 Стари Град - СНС 14,94%
Најмање што сам видео у Србији, не рачунајући мањинска места.
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@ChornyT
@BirthGauge
Serbia have some pro-natalist policies and it have some results in rural areas. In urban not really.
Gypsies already had high birth rate so this policy didn't affect them.
Among Serbs there are growth of 3rd and higher birth order in last few years. Here are data for Serbs.
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@BirthGauge
Montenegro: livebirths
Jan-Feb 2023: 1,134
Jan-Feb 2024: 1,160 (+2.29%)
Feb 2023: 519
Feb 2024: 540 (+4.05%)
Since Februar 2024 had one more day, growth on daily basis in February is 0.46%
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@BirthGauge
>66% Orthodox places
2022: 5,052
2023: 5,110 (+1.15%)
Mixed places
2022: 1,086
2023: 1,071 (-1.38%)
>66% Bosniak places
2022: 472
2023: 443 (-6.14%)
>66% Albanian places
2022: 398
2023: 378 (-5.03%)
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@BirthGauge
Serbia published final results of Census 2022 and there were 6,647,003 inhabitants last year.
On 25th May will be released data by age and sex for all settlements and then we will be able to calculate TFR.
Here are some data by ethnicities of Census.
Final data of Serbian Census 2022 show 6.647.003 inhabitants. Here are data for ethnicity which are only released for now.
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@EurocentricTuga
Not much really because total number of 3rd or higher birth also grew up solidly among Serbs.
2015: 7,010
2016: 7,224
2017: 7,539
2018: 7,449
2019: 8,303
2020: 8,178
2021: 8,651
2022: 8,847
In 2022 there were 9-10% less women 30-44 than in 2015
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@BirthGauge
Croatia: livebirths
Jan-Feb 2022: 5,788
Jan-Feb 2023: 5,353 (-7.52%)
Feb 2022: 2,839
Feb 2023: 2,493 (-12.19%)
Excel file - Natural Change in Population – Provisional Data
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Србија је на попису 1890. имала 429 насеља са >1.000 становника.
Упркос великим губицима у Балканским и Светским ратовима (посебно Првом) број таквих насеља на истој територији је нарастао на 1.094 на попису 1948
На тој територији по прошлогодишњем попису има 465 таквих насеља...
Places with over 1.000 inhabitants on Census 1953 and 2022 in 🇷🇸
Result of massive emigration from villages after WW2 and low TFR in most of villages (below replacement rate).
7
12
92
0
3
13
In 2022 there were 10,670 foreigners permanently residing in Serbia (10,252 in 2021).
Also at the end of 2022 there were 59,066 valid temporary residence permits (38% Russian citizen, 20% Chinese)
There were 29,251 newly admitted citizens of Serbia (almost all Serbs from abroad)
2
1
14
@BirthGauge
Montenegro: livebirths
Jan-Apr 2022: 2,140
Jan-Apr 2023: 2,189 (+2.29%)
Apr 2022: 488
Apr 2023: 487 (-0.20%)
1
0
11